Is North Korea Preparing For A New Nuclear Test?

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New satellite images of North Korea’s activity at its nuclear sites have raised speculation over new nuclear test around its major national anniversaries in the coming days. The images show increased activities including large number of vehicles and people around three of the tunnel entrances at the nuclear test site. Although occasional activities do take place at individual tunnels, increased activities at all the three tunnels at once is unusual.

According to Jack Liu, an analyst for the North Korea-focused website 38 North, which first published the photos, the activity could be either “for data collection from North Korea’s September 9 nuclear test at the site” or “preparation for a new test.”  South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported that there was activity at the North’s rocket launch station near the west coast that could be preparations for a long-range missile launch.

Regarding the day of the test, analysts speculated it to be around the 10th anniversary of North Korea’s first nuclear test on Sunday or could be at the 71st anniversary of the founding of its ruling Workers’ Party on Monday. As seen from its previous nuclear tests, North Korea follows a pattern of conducting a test around some key events or anniversaries. For instance it took its fifth nuclear test during the 68th anniversary of the Nation’s founding. U.S.-Korea Institute visiting scholar Joel S. Wit stated that “North Koreans often celebrate important events with spectacular shows” where the “satellite images  showed that Pyongyang is ready to launch at least three nuclear tests at any time.

South Korea government previously has claimed that North Korea is ready for another nuclear test as it is only waiting for its leader, Kim Jong Un, order to do so. However, its Unification Ministry Spokesman Jeong Joon-hee has claimed that there “were no particular indications of a plan for a nuclear test timed to coincide with the October 10 anniversary.” Yet it has been reported that South Korea’s military has been ordered onto high alert as Monday’s anniversary approaches.

On the contrary a CNN report speculated the date to be around the US presidential elections as North Korea conducted a missile test followed by a nuclear test soon after Barack Obama was elected. According to the report the country’s leaders tried to raise tensions around election time in the US in the past few decades where Victor Cha, Korea expert at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told CNN that “doing a major test would be a way of trying to intimidate the incoming president,” as the country “chooses particular windows that they know will gain maximum attention from the world, and the U.S. in particular.”

Since its first nuclear test in 2006, North Korea has been under conflict with the international community in line with several sanctions from the United Nations rejecting for international calls for ceasing its exercise. The Country continued with its flout arguing it needs to develop weapons and missiles for self defense. If the new test took place as been speculated the country may face tougher sanctions which South Korea, the US and Japan along with the UN Security Council are already discussing.

 

Yeshihareg Abebe

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