On April 22 local time, a terrorist attack targeting tourists occurred in the Indian-controlled Kashmir region. Four armed men shot and killed 26 tourists and injured dozens of others. This incident is the most deadly terrorist attack in the region since the Pulwama attack in 2019. After the incident, the situation between India and Pakistan deteriorated rapidly. The Indian government accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism and announced a series of strict measures against Pakistan, including border control, tightened personnel exchanges, and the expulsion of diplomats. It also announced the suspension of the implementation of the Indian River Treaty and the cessation of cooperation on river sharing. Pakistan has completely denied India’s accusations and promptly taken reciprocal countermeasures. In response to India’s “water cut-off offensive,” Pakistan announced the closure of its airspace and the cessation of all trade with India (including trade with third countries via Pakistan). Since the 25th, the armies of India and Pakistan have engaged in several sporadic exchanges of fire near the Line of Actual Control in Kashmir. The two countries’ actions to mobilize elite troops, tanks, and heavy artillery to the border overnight and the full alert of the navy and air force have made the conflict in South Asia imminent.

After the terrorist attack incident occurred, a local anti-Indian armed group called “Kashmiri Rebels” claimed responsibility for it. The reason is that in 2019, India abolished the “special envoy status” of Kashmir in its constitution and changed it into a federal territory, allowing Hindus from other states to purchase land here. The continuous migration of Hindus over the years has restricted the rights of the indigenous people and aroused strong dissatisfaction among the residents.

As two major South Asian countries, India and Pakistan have had long-standing grievances. Since the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, the issue of the ownership of the Kashmir region has always been the focus of the conflict. The two countries each govern parts of Kashmir and claim complete sovereignty over the region, and several large-scale conflicts have broken out. The Prwama terrorist attack in 2019 led to a severe military confrontation between India and Pakistan. The situation was once on the verge of full-scale war, and the mutual trust between the two countries suffered severe damage. Although the trigger of this conflict was attributed to the “terrorist attack,” the deep-seated contradiction lies in the irreconcilable territorial sovereignty and national identity between the two countries. India’s implementation of high-pressure policies in disputed areas and Pakistan’s implicit support for local separatist forces have made sporadic exchanges of fire highly likely to escalate into systemic confrontation.

This time, the Modi government has used the “water resource weapon” to suspend some provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty unilaterally. First, the upstream dam was shut down for water storage. Then, the sluice gates were directly opened to release water without any notice or warning, resulting in moderate flooding in the low-lying areas downstream of Pakistan’s control. This directly threatened the lifeline of Pakistan’s agriculture and pushed the conflict to a more dangerous dimension. As early as 30 years ago, Sarajedin, ex-vice President of the World Bank, predicted, “In the next century, humanity will fight for water resources.”

The Indus River Treaty was signed by India and Pakistan in 1960 under the sponsorship of the World Bank. This treaty stipulates the two countries’ allocation and use of water resources in the Indus River, providing a basis for resolving water resource disputes between India and Pakistan. According to the treaty, India is granted 20% of the total water resources in the Indus River Basin and agrees not to divert the western river water out of Pakistan. The water supply period is 10 years, and both sides can agree to extend it upon expiration. Pakistan agreed to implement the development plan of the Indus River Valley. Two water storage DAMS, eight canals, five weirs, a large number of Wells, and 1,400 miles of channels connecting the canals were constructed. The Indus Valley Development Fund provides the costs required for the project. The treaty requires India and Pakistan to share information on water discharge to prevent damage to downstream areas. This time, India’s unilateral suspension of the implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty and weaponization of water resources is the first time since the two sides signed the treaty in 1960.

It is reported that agriculture accounts for a quarter of Pakistan’s GDP, provides employment for nearly 40% of the population, and almost one-third of all the electricity comes from hydropower. Pakistan relies heavily on the water resources in the lower reaches of the river system in Indian-controlled Kashmir. About 65% of the cultivated land is irrigated by the Indus River, and 120 million people live there. Pakistan’s Electricity Minister, Legari, lashed out at India on social media for launching a “water war,” warning that this move would lead to a reduction in food production by more than 30% and trigger a large-scale humanitarian crisis. Water resources are of vital national interest to Pakistan. The Pakistani side will not compromise on core interests. Once water resources are infringed upon, it will retaliate with all its might through military actions.

The United Nations called on India and Pakistan on the 24th to exercise maximum restraint and avoid further deterioration. Stephane Dijarric, the spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, said on the 24th: “We strongly urge the governments of Pakistan and India to exercise maximum restraint to ensure that the situation and the developments we have witnessed do not deteriorate further.” He said that all problems should be peacefully resolved through meaningful engagement. According to AFP, on the 27th local time, Indian officials said that the Pakistani and Indian militaries exchanged fire in the Kashmir region for three consecutive nights, bringing the relations between the two countries to the lowest level in many years. According to The Times of India, Anadolu News Agency, and other media reports, the government of Pakistani-administered Kashmir said on the 27th that the Indian side opened floodgates in the upper reaches of the Jahrum River in the Kashmir region without prior notice, causing water levels in many areas downstream in Pakistan to rise sharply and even triggering moderate floods. It is reported that the floods in the Pakistani-administered Kashmir region have caused damage to local agriculture and animal husbandry.

As two nuclear-armed countries worldwide, if the conflict escalates between Pakistan and India, the consequences will be unimaginable. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, India has approximately 160 nuclear warheads, and Pakistan has about 165. Both sides can deliver short-range missiles. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Asif said outright that the conflict could escalate into a “full-scale war” and called on the international community to intervene.

In addition to paying attention to the progress of conflicts within the region, we also need to pay attention to the reactions of the world’s top powers, such as the United States, China, and Russia, as well as the military movements of other external forces, to assess the possibility of regional risk spillover. There are close ties between India and Pakistan, China, the United States, and Russia. Russia and the United States are undoubtedly important Allies of India, while Pakistan is a very important partner of China. On April 25, US President Trump publicly issued a statement regarding this incident, claiming that India and Pakistan could solve these problems. This statement is, to some extent, regarded as an indication that the United States is not prepared to get involved in the India-Pakistan conflict. China strongly condemned this attack, emphasizing that solving this problem requires tracing the source and ascertaining the truth. Russia has also shown no sign of getting involved in the conflict.

Among other foreign powers, the attitudes of Iran and Israel are particularly evident. Key officials of the Iranian government have publicly spoken out, announcing that the Iranian government hopes to mediate between India and Pakistan. According to reports from Indian media, Israeli military aircraft have appeared at domestic airports in India, indicating that Iran and Israel are highly likely to be preparing to intervene in the India-Pakistan conflict. This adds complexity to the geopolitical game between India and Pakistan and the outcome of the conflict, which may be related to the situation and deployment in the Middle East region.

However, we have noticed some signs of easing in the situation between India and Pakistan. Before launching countermeasures against Pakistan, India invited diplomats such as the Chinese ambassador to India to brief on the situation and accused Pakistan of “conniving at terrorism.” This reflects that the relations between China and India are relatively easing, and India hopes to communicate with China. China holds the rotating chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization this year. Member states signed the Shanghai Convention against Terrorism, Separatism, and Extremism on June 15, 2001. Security cooperation is one of the key areas of cooperation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. At the BRICS Summit last year, Indian Prime Minister Modi promised to support China’s work in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This time, India has voluntarily informed the Chinese ambassador of the situation and may accept the intervention of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif said on the 26th that Pakistan is open to conducting a “neutral” investigation into the recent Kashmir attacks. If China can facilitate the intervention and mediation of the SCO in the India-Pakistan conflict and create a platform for peaceful dialogue between the two countries, it would be a reasonable and feasible choice.

The resolution of decades-long grudges between India and Pakistan is not achieved overnight. On the one hand, we call on the countries concerned to exercise restraint and actively seek peaceful settlement of disputes through dialogue. On the other hand, we hope that major powers with interests can effectively play the role of mediation and facilitation to prevent the escalation of conflicts, intensify regional unrest, and trigger more humanitarian crises.