Since the end of October, anti-military groups in Myanmar have had major progress in their conflict against the military, who took power and removed democracy from the country after a violent coup in 2021. This recent push has been named ‘Operation 1027’, made by three different ethnic armed groups based in the Shan and Rakhine States, near the border with China. The three groups, comprised of the Arakan Army, the Kokang Group, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army have called themselves the Three Brotherhood Alliance, and aim to defeat the army and bring back democracy in Myanmar.

Operation 1027 has seen the Three Brotherhood Alliance take control of multiple towns in the Shan State, with the military unsuccessful in their attempts to stop them. Myint Swe, President of the Myanmar Military’s State Administration Council has even gone so far as to say that the country “faces the threat of fragmentation,” as the military is facing its largest setback since it took power. With the fighting beginning to spread, and different groups all over the country rising up against the junta, the military have resorted to implementing martial law in 8 cities in the Shan State, and a violent bombing campaign. The conflict between all groups has killed scores of civilians so far, and resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s goal of re-establishing democracy in a country that is ruled by a military that took power during a coup is a just cause. After the recent success of Operation 1027, the alliance’s goal of defeating the military is looking like it may not be as unthinkable as people first thought. However, if the Alliance continues to use violence to oppose the military regime, then many innocents will continue to be killed in the process, possibly displacing millions from their homes. In response to this violence, the UN have asked all sides to respect international law.

However, as of yet, no major nation state has spoken out about the unrest. China, the only superpower on Myanmar’s doorstep, has done nothing about the conflict apart from carry out military exercises along its shared border. The military in Myanmar must realise that as long as it remains in power,  groups calling for democracy will continue to rise up and cause instability. It should be seeking peace, not by violently suppressing uprisings, but by embracing calls for more democracy in the country.

Unfortunately, this is far easier said than done, as Myanmar and especially its military have a difficult relationship with democracy. Since 1948, Myanmar has veered back and forth between democracy and military control, with the democratically elected government most recently being deposed by the military in 2021. This was the same government that was also guilty of the ethnic cleansing and genocide of the Rohingya people in the Rakhine State, home of the Arakan Army. Millions initially took to the streets in peaceful protest against the coup, but were stopped violently by the military. Armed resistance from rebel groups has flourished ever since. Following the violent crushing of these protests, many activists decided that an uprising was their only option and joined ethnic armed groups, including the Three Brotherhood Alliance, who already controlled areas of the border.

Myanmar is a country that has rarely seen peace since independence, and if the past is any guide, it seems that establishing democracy alone will not guarantee it. First and foremost, civilian welfare is of the utmost importance.  Every armed group should be looking at what they can do to minimise the loss of lives and the displacement of civilians. Ideally, a process that looks at installing a democratically elected government, reflective of all the different states in the country, should be taken. However, this seems unlikely. The military have given no indication that it will withdraw itself from power, and the success of Operation 1027 means the Three Brotherhood Alliance will continue to fight– and civilians will continue to be caught in the crossfire.