November 1st was supposed to mark the first day of Britain’s independence from the European Union. Prime Minister Boris Johnson had initially promised a definitive exit from the EU by October 31, with or without a deal. Much like past Brexit deadlines, this one has passed to no avail. Britain has chosen a different course and has instead decided to hold a general election on December 12. The idea of a second election is supported by a large part of party leaders, namely Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. But what are the potential outcomes of these elections, and will this decision amount to any progress in the Brexit proceedings?

Johnson has settled on a new Brexit deadline with the EU, that being January 31st, 2020; however, its implementation is contingent on the outcome of the December 12th elections. Originally elections were supposed to be held in 2022, but Johnson believes these new elections will help in gaining more Conservative MPs and enable him to pass Brexit laws more swiftly. The Conservative party currently has the most seats, with a total of 298, however, any party needs 326 seats to form a majority. The British people have again been given a chance to play an active role in determining the future of Brexit and with the dissolution of Parliament on November 6th, parties will now begin six weeks of campaigning leading up to the December elections.

Parties have begun their campaigns with a heightened eagerness, during which they have clarified their opposing positions on the Brexit issue. The BBC reported that during a speech in South London, Corbyn stated that he would have “open negotiations with the EU about a sensible relationship with Europe.” During a visit to a hospital in Cambridge, Johnson pronounced his commitment to passing the January Brexit deal if the Conservatives were to win the upcoming elections. The Scottish National Party and the Liberal Democrats, which between them hold 56 seats, have both made their anti-Brexit stance clear. The leader of the Scottish National Party, Kristy Blackman, has vowed to prevent Scotland from being forcibly separated from the EU.

As reported by the BBC, the December elections will essentially occasion four potential outcomes. First, the Conservative’s plan is the implementation of Johnson’s January 31st Brexit deal that he negotiated with the EU. Although the bill would have to be presented to the newly elected Parliament, the goal would be to finalize Brexit in time for the January deadline. Second, is the possibility of another referendum, which could ultimately leave Britain in the same position in which it finds itself. Another option would be a confirmatory referendum, which would allow British citizens to vote on a specific Brexit deal (or for the absence of one). Third, would be a no-deal Brexit, which would occur on January 31st, if Parliament cannot come to a consensus. Finally, Britain could cancel Brexit. However, this is highly unlikely and would only be a probable outcome if a new party won a majority.

It is easy to get disheartened by the fruitlessness of Brexit, especially when a successful Brexit could have extreme ramifications on the global economy. The proposed Brexit deal could decrease economic growth by 4 percent by 2029. The December elections may pose a new opportunity for Britain to make progress in its negotiations, but much like past events in the Brexit proceedings, the effectiveness of these elections is uncertain. The British people must continue to keep their optimism guarded.