On December 9th, 2024, after 13 years of civil war, Syrian rebel forces achieved a dramatic victory by toppling President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The offensive, planned six months earlier and tacitly acknowledged by Turkey, began with the capture of Aleppo two weeks prior and culminated in the fall of Damascus. Assad’s weakened allies, including Iran and Hezbollah, and an exhausted, demoralized Syrian army allowed the rebels, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (H.T.S.), to dismantle the regime’s decades-long grip on power.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government played a pivotal role in this development, albeit indirectly. “Turkey knew something was coming,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan disclosed to Reuters, highlighting Ankara’s shifting stance towards Assad following failed reconciliation efforts. While Turkey denied authorizing the offensive, Syrian opposition figures noted that Ankara’s lack of intervention was instrumental. Aron Lund, a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, pointed out, “The H.T.S.-led coalition was stronger and more coherent than any previous rebel force during the war.”
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump emphasized that Russia’s distraction and withdrawal of support for Assad contributed to his downfall, adding, “Moscow should never have propped up Assad in the first place.” Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu credited Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah for weakening Assad’s key ally. Birol Başkan, a Turkey-based political scientist, remarked, “Turkey is the biggest outside winner here,” underlining Erdogan’s strategic gains.
Despite its military success, the rebel victory raises critical concerns about the future. H.T.S., the offensive’s mastermind, remains designated as a terrorist group by Turkey and the West. While the group has moderated its image, its governance model, rooted in taxation and quasi-state authority in Idlib, sparks fears of power centralization. Moreover, Turkey’s objectives, particularly its actions against Kurdish forces, risk destabilizing northeastern Syria, potentially alienating U.S. allies in the region.
Syria’s prolonged conflict stems from years of authoritarian rule by the Assad family, exacerbated by external interference. The civil war began in 2011 with pro-democracy protests met with brutal crackdowns, eventually spiraling into a multi-faceted war involving international powers and proxy forces. Assad’s survival heavily relied on Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah support, which eroded significantly in the months leading up to his ouster.
While Assad’s downfall offers a glimmer of hope for ending the civil war, it is far from a guaranteed path to peace. The fragmented opposition, geopolitical rivalries, and the absence of a unified vision for Syria’s future remain significant obstacles. True reconciliation will require international efforts to foster inclusive governance, address sectarian divides, and prioritize the well-being of civilians. Without these, the region risks slipping into a new cycle of instability.
