Last Friday, the Nicaraguan government agreed to allow an international investigation into fatal protests that occurred in mid-April. The protests, initially opposing social security reform, sparked national unrest when pro-government groups used excessive force against protesters. Subsequent civic demonstrations also faced violent retaliation, with the Center for Human Rights reporting that over 170 have been killed and hundreds more injured. Oppositionists are now calling for President Daniel Ortega’s resignation, in addition to political reform and justice for victims. The agreement is the result of the latest negotiations between the government and protesters, with earlier negotiations failing to produce results.

 Nicaragua’s Civil Alliance for Justice and Democracy welcomed the agreement as “evidence that dialogue is the path to democratization and justice.” The organization, composed of several civic groups, further predicts that “violence will not escalate” as a result. Despite this advancement, however, an end to hostilities is not guaranteed. The government has been silent on calls for democratization and Ortega’s resignation- two key goals of the oppositionist movement. Additionally, according to Al Jazeera, a truce brokered in the negotiations fell apart within a few hours when a shooting and fire killed eight.

While the agreement does show that the Nicaraguan government is willing to work with protesters to end the conflict, an international investigation alone does not mean systemic change. The government must be willing to accept the results on the investigation and use it to reform its security practices. Should the government refuse to do so, the results could be useful for legitimizing the opposition in the eyes of the international community. This could help draw foreign pressure onto Ortega to resign. In the meantime, the Nicaraguan government must continue negotiations and follow through with democratic reform. Its silence on Ortega and its refusal to end violent practices has prolonged conflict and lead to more instability and deaths.

Nicaragua was ruled for decades as a dictatorship by the Somoza family. Despite helping to overthrow an oppressive government, Ortega has shifted the country back to authoritarianism. Since 2007, Ortega abolished constitutional term limits and appointed his wife Rosario Murillo as Vice President. The violent repression and control of civil society is only the latest hallmark of the current authoritarian regime, and the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights has since condemned the government’s use of force.

Friday’s agreement does provide hope for peace. However, without meaningful political reforms, the government cannot expect to see an end to protests. Nicaraguans are facing mass repression and state-sanctioned violence under Ortega’s rule. Should conflict continue, Nicaragua may be pushed once again towards a violent and chaotic revolution.