The U.S. supports Ukraine in a confrontation with Russia, but it will be difficult to intervene directly because Ukraine currently does not bring strategic benefits to the U.S.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that Washington was very concerned about the number of Russian soldiers and military equipment concentrated on the Ukrainian border. He warned that if Russia takes action to provoke and complicate the Donbass region’s situation, “it will suffer the consequences,” according to Reuters news agency. The U.S. secretary of state also said that the U.S. discussed developments in the Russian-Ukraine border area with allies and partners.
Before this statement, calling with his European counterparts France, Britain, and Germany on April 9 and 10, Mr. Blinken repeatedly reaffirmed his support of the U.S. to the government of Ukraine. Mr. Blinken also publicly declared that the U.S. and its allies are ready to assist Kiev against “unilateral provocations” from Moscow and the separatist faction in Donbass.
Therefore, the question now is whether the U.S. may intervene indirectly or directly in the Donbass region once the Ukrainian-Russian military conflict scenario becomes a reality? The first indications are emerging that Washington wants to establish a more evident and more realistic presence in Donbass, with military news site Avia.pro recently reporting more U.S. military transport planes. The last day has been continuously flying to Ukraine. Along with these activities, the U.S. Navy is preparing to send two destroyers to the Black Sea north of Ukraine next week, information has just been confirmed by the Turkish government on April 9, according to CNN. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko is concerned that “more and more countries do not have a coastline in the Black Sea” but constantly increase military activity there.
According to the World Politics Review, the moves may have been the maximum limit the U.S. could do with Ukraine and still avoid offending Russia. If it is too much for Moscow to retaliate, the conflict will bring in both the United States and the entire coalition of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A war of this size is sure to cause serious harm and no good to the image of the negotiating mediator Mr. Biden is trying to convey to the international community. Moreover, since the end of the Barack Obama presidency, the U.S. leaders have determined that the focus on the balance of power will focus on the Asia-Pacific region in general and have put a lot of effort into drawing the war, the development strategy in this region, and the containment of China, which directly threatens the position of the United States. It is challenging for the United States to change this approach to initiate such a conflict in the Donbass.
Russia does not fundamentally want to wage war in the Donbass because the tensions are politically more favorable to the country in the context of declining relations between Russia and the West. Having a situation like the Donbass would be a good bet for Russia to haggle with the West in the upcoming peace negotiations, or simply to put pressure on the West like:
“If you don’t If we take a step back, we will strain at Donbass, and we all don’t want that to happen.”