Haftar Leaves Moscow Without Signing Peace Agreement

On Monday, January 13, Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA), and Fayez Al-Sarraj, the Prime Minister of Libya, met in Moscow for peace negotiations. After France’s failed attempt to broker peace among warring sides in 2019, Russia and Turkey took it upon themselves to mediate a truce agreement to end the nine-month war over the capital, Tripoli. In Moscow, meeting sides were presented with a ceasefire agreement that was drafted by Russia and Turkey. After hours of negotiation, Prime Minister Al-Sarraj signed the agreement, while Haftar asked for time for consideration. Despite all hopes, the next day General Haftar’s delegation left Moscow without signing.

Haftar’s refusal to sign the truce was a set back to the peace process in Libya, yet Angela Merkel announced that they will still be holding peace negotiations in Berlin on January 19 and each side is expected to attend, which signalled a new possibility for peace. Despite the outcomes of the Moscow meeting, Russia insists to continue its mediation efforts and be present in the Berlin meeting. Contrary to Russia’s understanding approach to the result, according to BBC, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu responded by saying that Haftar’s actions showed “who wants war and who wants peace” which later was followed by Turkish President Erdogan’s comment “We [Turkey] will not hesitate to teach a deserved lesson to Haftar if he continues his attacks.” The source of the news agency Deutsche Well explained that Haftar’s refusal was connected to Turkish presence in the peace negotiations and the lack of a clause forcing “Turkey and Syria to withdraw their mercenaries” from Libya. And the Tass news agency reported that Haftar left the peace talks due to Sarraj’s request for LNA to retreat to territories prior to the LNA offensive in April.

Regardless of the outcome, serious breakthroughs were made in Moscow, especially for Russia. Grigory Lukyanov, a senior lecturer at the Higher School of Economics, in his interview with RT, said that the Moscow meetings allowed Russia to secure neutral mediator role since “No other nation in or outside the region enjoys the same level of trust and support.” Considering the involvement of Germany and France, this is an important diplomatic victory for Russia. For the warring sides, it is great progress in the peace-making process. Yet, Haftar’s and Erdogan’s strong attitude can jeopardize this progress. Sending mercenaries to Libya will not help finalize the conflict, rather it will create more violence in Libya. Therefore, Erdogan should try to balance his relations with each side, just like Russia does. If he continues to fail to do so, this can lead Turkey to be left out of the peace talks, and in any case of peace, or victory of Haftar, it can hurt the future of Turkey-Libya relations. For any possibility of peace, Haftar and Al-Sarraj should be able to come face to face and discuss terms and conditions. In Moscow, they negotiated through Russian and Turkish delegates in separate rooms, but if two leaders cannot sit in the same room to have a conversation to decide on their country’s future how can there be absolute peace?

Libyans have been living in instability and trying to rebuild their state since the death of former leader Muammar al-Qaddafi in October 2011. In 2014, the House of Representatives, supported by Haftar, claimed to be the legitimate government of Libya. Within two years, in 2016, a rival government the Government of National Accord (GNA) was established in Tripoli with the support of the United Nations. Despite the United Nations’ efforts to unite two governments, Haftar and al-Sarraj failed to come to an agreement. In April 2019, Haftar declared war against GNA and launched a military attack to capture Tripoli. According to the UN, since the start of the offensive, more than 280 civilians and 2,000 fighters have been killed and 146,000 Libyans displaced.

Haftar leaving without signing and Erdogan’s reaction are concerning. Turkey will soon start deploying mercenaries to Libya in support of GNA and how will Haftar react is another matter of concern. At least one side signing the truce gives hope for the future of Libya. And even though no peace was made in Moscow, warring sides agree to pro-long the ceasefire till the Berlin meeting. Hopefully, warring sides will agree to have an indefinite ceasefire and prevent any more loss of civilians and military people.

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