President of Guatemala, Bernardo Arevalo, was sworn in on January 15th after several months of legal maneuvers by the incumbent Attorney General María Consuelo Porras. President Bernardo Arevalo has endured political difficulties from Guatemala’s entrenched oligarchy as his political campaign revolved around promises to fight corruption and support indigenous civil rights. Attorney General Porras is a notorious ally of the wealthy and was responsible for attempting to arrest members of a UN-backed anti-corruption effort. Because Guatemala’s constitution prohibits the removal of the Attorney General by the executive, after an amendment passed in 2016, President Bernardo Arevalo will likely push for a criminal investigation of the Attorney General, one of the few conditions for removal from that office.  

The Attorney General is widely believed to be directly culpable for the illegal attempts at intimidating anti-corruption activists. Juan Sandoval, former head of the Special Prosecutor’s Office Against Impunity, currently in exile after being dismissed for his investigations, spoke to the Associated Press about the involvement of Porras “She obstructed our investigations, took away what we needed to do our work, delayed [judicial] processes and initiated administrative and criminal proceedings against us for doing our jobs with fictitious evidence, made arbitrary arrests … Which collectively led to people being exiled”. The United States and the United Nations condemned the attempted arrest of Sandoval and others. The United States State Department published a Tweet on August 28th, 2023 “The United States categorically condemns the abuse of prosecutorial powers by [Guatemalan Justice Department] to intimidate those like Claudia Gonzalez, Juan Francisco Sandoval, and Eva Siomara Sosa who seek transparency and accountability in their country”. This followed an attempted arrest of a member of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), a UN-backed commission to combat corruption in Guatemala. During the transition of power in late 2023, President-Elect Arevalo began to encounter resistance from the lame-duck President Giammattei and his allies within the government. According to a Reuters confidential source close to the Attorney General’s office, the Attorney General “continues to have the support of the outgoing president Alejandro Giammattei and the conservative elite and they are going to do everything to ensure Arevalo does not take office”.

President Arevalo represents a regional shift in politics for Latin and South America. A ‘pink wave’ of social democratic candidates has been taking power as a response to the failed economic policies of the 1990s and early 2000s. The export of neoliberal economic policy by institutions such as the IMF and World Bank to the region has resulted in high levels of corruption, corporate capture of government institutions, extreme poverty, and mass migration to the southern United States border. The struggle President Arevalo must endure is symbolic of entrenched interests within the economic and political structures of South American democracies. However, the sweeping support from indigenous and working-class Guatemalans will back the President against opponents in the oligarchy.    

Guatemala was previously making progress against organized crime and government corruption, former Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz (2010-2014) enacted sweeping reforms to the justice system resulting in the largest reduction of crime in Guatemalan history. Paz y Paz also oversaw the largest conviction rate for crimes against women and homicides. Succeeding Paz as Attorney General was Thelma Aldana, Aldana gained incredible popularity after her 2015 investigation into government corruption resulted in sitting President Molina resigning along with members of his cabinet. Aldana was also notable during her tenure as President of the Supreme Court for creating special courts for violent crimes against women. Under the current Attorney General, María Consuelo Porras, the Guatemalan justice system has become a tool for the ruling elite and wealthy classes. The highest legal office is now being used to intimidate opponents of systemic graft and nepotism, including the recently elected President Arevalo. Guatemala has only recently emerged from a five-decade-long civil war, with hostilities officially ending in 1996. The conflict frequently saw massacres and ethnic cleansing by US-backed right-wing paramilitary groups, leaving behind deep scars within Guatemalan society. In the 2010s, legal leaders like Paz y Paz and Thelma Aldana led investigations into war crimes committed during the lengthy civil war by sitting members of the government. The election and appointment of pro-status-quo political actors are part of a reaction by right-wing elements of Guatemalan society to the popular progressive movement. Unsurprisingly, the 2023 election was rife with extra-legal tactics by the incumbent party to prevent the election of Bernardo Arevalo. 

The grassroots support for Arevalo and the backing of the US and UN should allow Arevalo to remove Guatemala’s Attorney General, but the opposition party has demonstrated its willingness to use any means possible to delay or stop Arevalo’s anti-corruption agenda. One outcome could be an attempt on Arevalo’s life by elements of the corrupt elite in Guatemala. Many Guatemalan activists reside in exile after multiple assassination attempts by pro-status-quo factions, including members of the UN-backed CICIG. The international community should continue its focus on the peaceful transition of power in Guatemala and Latin America in general, as the regions history of political violence can not be ignored.