Ten police officers were injured, at least seven were killed, and approximately 45 prison employees and correctional officers were taken hostage during gang riots at three prisons in Guatemala. Inmate members of the Barrio 18 gang were responding to the government’s efforts to tighten control over gangs, including plans to transfer gang leaders to other prisons and reduce privileges for gang members within the prison system. The government deployed military and police forces to retake control of the prisons and rescue the correctional officers and employees. Shortly afterward, at least eight people were killed in armed attacks targeting police in and around the capital, which were attributed to the Barrio 18 gang. President Bernardo Arévalo declared a 30-day state of emergency on January 18, restricting civil liberties and allowing security forces to arrest or question individuals without prior court approval.  Arévalo described the attacks as an attempt to “terrorize the security forces and the population” to derail the government’s campaign against organized crime gangs and their “reign of terror,” and announced that the government would take tougher security action against gangs.

Addressing organized crime is essential for a country’s development and security. However, violence-based approaches risk causing significant harm to ordinary civilians and can ultimately perpetuate cycles of violence. It is therefore important to pursue fundamental solutions that address the root causes of the problem. A similar case in El Salvador illustrates the risks of violence-based responses. After President Nayib Bukele declared a state of emergency on 27 March 2022 in response to a surge in gang-related killings, the measures have been extended more than 30 times, resulting in a de facto permanent emergency regime.

According to InSight Crime, which specializes in organized crime in Latin America, President Bukele’s measures have weakened the power of criminal organizations in El Salvador. However, these measures have also come at the cost of individual and civil liberties. Under the state of emergency, large numbers of people have been arrested, while the public has been subjected to indiscriminate security operations. The measures have also led to abuses of power by the police and military, contributing to democratic backsliding and consolidating presidential authority. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has expressed concern over the state of emergency, warning that “despite short-term improvements in security, the collapse of the rule of law and human rights protections risks perpetuating cycles of violence in the long term.”

Organized crime and gang networks have effectively controlled large parts of Guatemalan society, as well as internal order within the prison system, for a long time. In response, the government, seeking to reassert control over both society and prisons, implemented policies such as isolating and transferring gang leaders. The riots erupted as gangs resisted these measures.

However, this is not merely a gang problem. In Guatemala, deep economic inequality, weak public services and social safety nets, the collapse of the justice system, and the failure of the prison system have allowed organized crime to become deeply embedded in society. This underscores that reliance on hardline security measures alone is insufficient to address the root causes of violence. The government’s efforts to reassert control, while aimed at restoring security, have triggered violent resistance and exposed long-standing structural weaknesses.

While confronting organized crime is essential for national security and development, approaches centered solely on repression risk producing further civilian harm and entrenching cycles of violence. As seen in El Salvador, emergency powers may deliver short-term security gains, but at a high cost to democratic governance and human rights. Guatemala now faces a critical choice: whether to replicate this model or pursue a more balanced approach that addresses violence without undermining the foundations of democracy.