As it has been nearly three years since Moscow invaded Kyiv, an event that has caused immense economic and geopolitical changes is France’s hawkish position towards Russia .

France’s foreign policy has been characterized by Gaullism, in which France insists on maintaining a foreign policy independent of outside powers, namely the U.S. Consequently, French have had different positions from the US, such as recognizing the PRC before the US, leaving NATO’s military command, France’s refusal to support the U.S.’ 2003 invasion of Iraq, and when President Macron criticizing Trump’s decision to leave the Iran nuclear deal.

Likewise, in 2008 when the US desired to extend NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia, the French were against it. More broadly, the French insisted that a European security architecture mist include Russia, not exclude it. Even after Russia annexed Crimea, in 2015, François Hollande said that Russia isn’t a threat, but a “partner.” In February 2022, as reports of a possible Russian invasion became public, Macron met Putin and urged for a de-escalation.

However, in recent months, “the president who once urged allies not to “humiliate” Russia has now called for Russia’s defeat, urged allies not to be “cowardly,” and warned that a Russian victory would spell “the end of European security.”

France’s policy towards Russia has become very hawkish to the point that in April 2024, French foreign minister Stéphane Séjourné said that it was no use to talk to Russia. Later, in May 2024, Macron refused to rule out sending ground troops to Kyiv, and in response, Moscow said that it would target French troops.

While it is unlikely that France would send troops, the rhetoric indicates the mood swing in Paris.

One factor behind this shift could be France’s doubts about continued American assistance. Ever since Trump got elected, Macron has insisted that the Europeans must become self-reliant on defense/security and in 2019, he infamously said that  NATO is “brain dead” and Europe needs to think of itself as a geopolitical power and rely on itself. These desires influenced when Macron said that Europe should avoid becoming “America’s followers,” as it relates to the strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

Hence, amid growing concerns in Europe that a Trump victory in the 2024 elections could end American assistance to Kyiv, these French hawkish statements and policies reflect an effort to continue aid to Ukraine without the Americans.

Another factor behind this hawkish policy is to help Macron domestically, viewing that a hawkish Russia policy could steer voters away from the Rassemblement Nationale (National Rally, formerly the National Front ), given Marine Le Pen’s admiration for Putin and the allegation of her campaign receiving Russian money in the 2017 elections.

However, having a hawkish Russia policy would not benefit Macron’s domestic political standing. According to a poll, about 68% of French oppose sending troops to Ukraine, and one of the factors behind growing right-wing support across the EU is dissatisfaction with the current Ukraine policy. For example, in Germany, one of the factors for the rise of the Afd was the negative economic impact the sanctions had on energy prices. Even though a far-right majority was avoided in France, it is worth noting that in 2022, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (a prominent left politician) supported suspending France’s participation in NATO and in February, Mélenchon said that it is “high time” for peace in Ukraine. Hence, opposition to aiding Ukraine and affinity to Moscow isn’t limited to the far-right.

Most importantly, it undermines France’s outreach efforts toward the Global South. In September 2023, the Ukrainians sought French assistance to persuade India, China, and Brazil to consider Zelensky’s peace plan proposal. While there was no successful outcome, the mere efforts indicated how those countries viewed France as a “trustworthy” actor in comparison to the U.S to push for a Ukraine peace process. However, as the conference in Switzerland illustrated, France’s hawkishness only reinforces the narrative that the West is aloof from the Global South’s concerns.

Should Trump get reelected in 2024 and reduce or end aid to Ukraine, the way for Paris to be less reliant on the U.S is to decrease tensions with Russia and/or work with nonaligned middle powers (Brazil, Indonesia, India, etc.), rather than have a hawkish policy which would limit France’s policy options in an era of great power competition.