Explosions in Transnistria Increase Fears of War

A series of explosions in the Moldovan breakaway territory of Transnistria have increased fears of the Ukrainian war spreading. The explosions targeted the Transnistria state security headquarters in Tiraspol, a military unit in Parcani, and Soviet-era radio masts. No one has claimed responsibility for the acts, and no casualties were reported. According to Moldova’s president, the attacks are likely an attempt to escalate tensions by pro-war factions in the separatist region. A Transnistria official has claimed the attackers were Ukrainian infiltrators, while Kyiv asserts Russia is behind the incidents. Some experts are concerned the region is Russia’s next target in its march westward or a potential launching pad for further attacks on Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Defence Ministry has argued that Putin will invade Moldova next and referred to the explosions as a “planned provocation by the Russian special services.” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated, “The goal is obvious – to destabilize the situation in the region, to threaten Moldova.” 

While Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov will not confirm or deny Moscow’s plans, there are signs Putin is considering moving into the separatist state. According to BBC News, one Russian official remarked that Russian speakers in Moldova are oppressed: the reasoning used to justify the war in Ukraine. The deputy commander of Russia’s Central Military District, Rustam Minnekayev, suggested that Russia could create a path for its forces from Crimea to Transnistria.

Such a plan would support another Russian attack on the western part of Ukraine or an attack on Moldova itself. Ukraine’s key port city of Odesa is just east of Transnistria. Moscow has 1,500 troops stationed in Transnistria as part of a “peacekeeping” force. Putin could easily use the explosions to justify moving more soldiers into the area or Ukraine, given Transnistria officials are attempting to blame the violence on Ukraine. Moldova, Ukraine, and western allies must be quick to dispel any fake news about the attacks. Open information about Russia’s false flag operations continues to be vital. Moldova and Ukraine should prepare for more regional destabilization in the months ahead. 

Transnistria declared independence from Moldova in 1990. When the Soviet Union began to collapse, the region broke away to maintain ties with Moscow, while Moldova considered independence or unification with Romania. There was a short border war between the separatist state and Moldova that ended in 1992 with a ceasefire. More ethnic Ukrainians and Russians live in Transnistria than ethnic Moldovans. While the breakaway state remains economically dependent on Moscow, Moldova has grown closer to the West in recent years. The Moldovan constitution maintains neutrality, but the state submitted a bid to join the European Union last month. The small country has also taken in over 437,000 Ukrainian refugees since the war started.

The recent explosions in Transnistria could be a sign of impending conflict in eastern Moldova, as Russia seeks to expand its reach into Eastern Europe. Despite the separatists’ claims, Moscow is likely behind the attacks. While it is unclear exactly what Moscow intends to do next, it would not be surprising if Transnistria is a new front of the Ukrainian conflict or an invasion of parts of Moldova. Moldova will have to decide how to approach Russian interference and the threat of a new border war. Ukraine, Moldova, and their European allies will need to work closely together to find solutions to Moscow’s aggression.

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