On 27 August 2024, Egypt sent two military aircraft with arms and ammunition to Mogadishu, Somalia following a defense pact signed between the states on 14 August 2024. Unnamed security officials also said that about 300 Egyptian special forces troops also arrived with the weapons, according to The National. Tensions rose in the Horn of Africa after Ethiopia sought to acquire coastal land on the Red Sea in January by offering recognition to the secessionist state of Somaliland, which is internationally considered a part of Northern Somalia, in exchange for the opportunity to lease 12 miles of coastline. Egypt has backed Somalia amidst its own tension with Ethiopia following the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River. Somalia has threatened to remove the roughly 10,000 Ethiopian troops that are currently stationed within its borders on a peacekeeping mission combating al-Shabab militants.

After the aid arrived, the Ethiopian foreign affairs ministry commented that “instead of pursuing these efforts for peace, the Government of Somalia is colluding with external actors aiming to destabilise the region.” The government refrained from mentioning Egypt directly. Reuters reported that Rashid Abdi, an analyst with the Sahan Research think tank, said that “the threat of a direct shooting war is low, but a proxy conflict is possible,” between Egypt and Ethiopia.

Ethiopia’s desire to expand to the coast is concerning from the perspective of the five coastal states around it. Tensions have already increased, and further action could lead to significant conflict in the already unstable region. Somalia’s acceptance of Egyptian military aid also escalates the situation. Somaliland claimed its independence in 1991, and has received no international recognition since despite its relatively stable democratic government. A recognition of the breakaway state by Somalia and the international community would be beneficial to long-term peace in the Horn of Africa.

Somalia announced in December of 2023, that it would reopen negotiations with Somaliland, however, Somaliland’s deal with Ethiopia, which followed Somalia’s statement, drew criticism and will likely delay talks further. Ethiopia’s proposal to Somaliland will continue to be seen as a threat to other Horn of Africa states. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has given mixed signals as to how far his government is willing to escalate to achieve their goals. Speaking to his soldiers, Abiy said: “Ethiopia has never invaded any country and will not do so in the future.” In a televised speech, however, he said in reference to Ethiopia gaining territory on the Red Sea: “If this is not going to happen, there will be no fairness and justice and if there is no fairness and justice, it’s a matter of time, we will fight.” Egypt has come to Somalia’s aid in the face of potential Ethiopian aggression being that Egypt has been critical of Ethiopia’s damming of the Nile.

The Horn of Africa region endures instability from its states and surrounding conflicts such as the Houthis of Yemen in the Red Sea and the war in Sudan. Ethiopia’s expansionism and Egypt’s escalation of sending military aid to Somalia will likely lengthen the path to lasting peace in the region. Ethiopia’s actions in response to Egypt’s aid and Somalia’s actions towards Somaliland will be pivotal in determining the direction of the region in the near future.