The currency of Russia, the Russian rouble, recovered to a three-week high against the dollar thanks to robust oil prices. Nevertheless, these gains were limited by recent tensions over Russian involvement in Ukraine. The Bank of Russia is thought to be raising its key interest rate from 8.5% in its fight against stubbornly high inflation, which supports the rouble by promoting investments in rouble-denominated assets. Western nations’ fear that Russia may invade neighboring Ukraine remains elevated, with Britain saying the West could face the “most dangerous moment” in its standoff with Moscow in the next few days. Russia currently holds military groups in Belarus and the Black Sea. Despite minor success in regards to the rouble, potential problems remain over Russia’s financial system. E.U. Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said that “Europe is going through its most dangerous moment since the Cold War amid fear of Russian invasion of Ukraine.” Western leaders have threatened to impose fresh sanctions on Russia if it invades, which Moscow has repeatedly denied planning.
The market will be keeping an eye on President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with the French President Emmanuel Macron, who is set to fly to Moscow in a bid to secure commitments from Putin that will ease tensions over Ukraine. The French leader hopes to discuss the terms of a de-escalation during his talks with Putin. Following the Moscow visit, Macron will head to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, for talks with the country’s president Volodymyr Zelensky. Macron has downplayed the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine and said his negotiations with Putin and Zelensky are likely to prevent a military conflict.
“The geopolitical objective of Russia today is clearly not Ukraine, but to clarify the rules of cohabitation with NATO and the European Union,” Macron mentioned. “The intensity of the dialogue we have had with Russia and this visit to Moscow are likely to prevent a military operation from happening…then we will discuss the terms of de-escalation,” he said. But, he cautioned that “we have to be very realistic” and that “we will not obtain unilateral gestures from Russia.”
The United States and NATO have called the Russian demands “non-starters” for negotiations, and Washington has deployed thousands of additional troops to Eastern Europe. The White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned that Putin could order an attack on Ukraine within days or weeks. Sources close to Macron said one aim of the French president’s visit was to buy time and freeze the situation for several months, at least until a “Super April” of elections in Europe, in Hungary, Slovenia, and France.
President Macron’s efforts to dissolve tensions between Russia, Ukraine, and other Western nations are admirable; the goal must be to achieve a diplomatic and collaborative plan to calm tensions. With a conflict as comprehensive as this, it is crucial to not make rash decisions and act in a thoughtful, cooperative manner. “For the president, it’s an opportunity to show his leadership in Europe. That he is above the fray,” one French government source told Reuters. Macron’s method of communication over thoughtless actions should be the primary tactic in resolution efforts. All countries involved, directly and indirectly, should be obliged to collectively converse their positions regarding the conflict; only until this happens can there be regional peace.
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