South China Sea Dispute


South China Sea, Asia/Pacific

The South China Sea is a resource-rich and geopolitically strategic area that has precipitated a series of conflicts and diplomatic spats in the region. China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei have all made claims in the region throughout the past half-century, leading to skirmishes and legal issues. The South China Sea boasts rich and bountiful oil reserves and hosts a third of global maritime trade, with an estimated US$3.37 trillion worth of trade passing through the region. Therefore, there are powerful economic, political, and strategic imperatives for asserting and maintaining power over this region. 

Tensions have worsened throughout the years as China continues to build artificial islands and actively militarizes the region. The US-China battle for supremacy in the international order has also raised the stakes in the region. The US has long criticized China’s construction of islands and building of military facilities in the region and is concerned they could be used to restrict free nautical movement. This can be largely attributed to the US$1.2 trillion worth of US-traded goods passing through the South China Sea each year. 

Agreements such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) exist to regulate maritime disputes and encourage free and open navigation, although vague wording has made it difficult to address South China Sea territorial disputes. National pride, trade and military ambitions, and historic and symbolic attachments have added fuel to the fire. Confrontations between aircraft carriers, fishing boats, bombers, and seaplanes manned by the various claimants in the region have resulted in fatal standoffs, protests, and bitter diplomatic relations.

From a legal perspective, the Law of Sea Convention, 1982, provides for an important maritime zone of up to 200 nautical miles (about 230 miles) offshore, a coastal nation can claim as an exclusive economic zone (EEZ). China’s claims are in clear violation of the Law of Sea Convention, Section 2: Limits of the Territorial Sea.

It’s easier for China to assert its maritime power by creating artificial islands in the South China Sea than by defying the U.S. Pacific Fleet with an aircraft carrier.

David Ignatius, journalist

Key Facts

Approx. 150

People killed

250

Islands

7

Artificial islands

Where: A marginal sea in the pacific. South of China, East of Vietnam, West of the Philippines, east of the Malay Peninsula and north of Borneo.

Trade worth of the South China Sea: 5.3 trillion worth of goods transit the region annually

Oil resources in the region: Approximately 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas

Value of  U.S. Trade: Approximately 1.2 trillion

Artificial Islands: 7 reclamation projects across 7 locations (Chinese projects)

The Key Actors

The Situation

Classification: Territorial dispute

Analyst’s suggestions:

  • This situation is complex, in that China is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the only international body to have unanimous binding authority over nation-states. Moreover, the immediate resolution of this crisis is difficult because of China’s major role in the global economy. A unique settlement must be negotiated between the P5 and the Southeast Asian nations who have a vested economic interest in the dispute, in order to resolve this maritime conflict.
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Similar Crises:

  • Coming soon

Worsening

Since the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague rules in support of the Philippines, the situation has been static due to China’s refusal to observe the Courts decision. Unfortunately, the Permanent Court of Arbitration lacks enforcement mechanism. Although China’s efforts are a clear violation of UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, China’s role as the permanent member of the Security Council has played a major role in the ustainment of this international conflict. Moreover, China’s economic influence has also played a significant role in ensuring no other major players make a substantive impact to resolving the crisis. Even though the United States has placed sanctions on 24 Chinese companies because of this crisis, what is important to note is that if this escalation was done by another nation, then the United State would have placed serious economic sanctions on the entire nation. This issue shows the major gaps in International Law.

Timeline of the crisis

After Japan gained exclusive rights over several archipelagos in the South China Sea, Japan took control of the Pratas Islands.

The Japanese Imperial Navy invaded Hainan the following February. Japan’s invasion followed the Marco Polo Bridge Incident of July 1937, which was a battle between the Chinese National Revolutionary Army and the Japanese Imperial Army. This marked the beginning of the Japanese invasion of China.

After the Japanese surrender at the end of WWII, the U.S. took control of Japan. This involved the Ryukyu Islands, which held strategic significance in terms of the American imperative to thwart the spread of communism.

Under the Chiang Kai-shek government, China demarcated its territorial claims in South China Sea with an eleven-dash line, which claimed the waters adjacent to Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Mao Zedong announced the formation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), ending the civil war that broke out shortly after World War II. Defeated Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek escaped to Taiwan, where he created the ROC. 

The U.S. and forty-seven other nations signed the Treaty of Peace (PDF) with Japan in San Francisco, officially ending World War II. Japan renounced all claims to Korea, Taiwan, the Pescadores, and the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

China removed the Gulf of Tonkin portion, erasing two dashes from its original territorial claims, in effect reducing it to a nine-dash line.

After thorough geological surveys that took place between 1968 and 1969, a report published by the UN found significant energy deposits in the waters off the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands between Taiwan and Japan.

The Philippines occupied five of the Spratly Islands and claimed the entire Western part of the archipelago.

The United States and Japan signed the Okinawa Reversion Treaty, in which Washington effectively returned full control of the Ryukyu Islands to Japan. The move was seen as reinforcing the U.S.-Japan security alliance. In response to the reversion treaty, the ROC and PRC began issuing claims to the islands, saying they had belonged to the Chinese since ancient times and have been administered by the province of Taiwan. Meanwhile, Japan viewed the reversion agreement with the United States as further validation of its sovereignty over the disputed islands.

China captured the Paracel Islands, which had previously been occupied by South Vietnam.

China and Japan formally re-established diplomatic relations after gradually rebuilding economic ties. In China, the failure of Mao’s Great Leap Forward (1958–1962) preceding the Cultural Revolution resulted in mass starvation that forced Beijing to reevaluate its domestic policies and look to Japan for aid. The Sino-Japanese reconciliation dovetailed the rapprochement between the United States and China—a change in official political allegiance from Taipei to Beijing that was a crucial factor in the establishment of diplomatic ties between Japan and China. Trade between Japan and China surged in the period after normalization, deescalating the first round of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands disputes.

South Vietnam occupied much of the Spratly Islands. A year after the Paris Peace Accords, which ended the U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War, Chinese forces occupied the western portion of the Paracel Islands, planting flags on several islands and seizing a South Vietnamese garrison. Vietnamese troops fled south and established the first permanent Vietnamese occupation of the Spratly Islands. Meanwhile, Beijing built a military installation, including an airfield and artificial harbor, on Woody Island, the largest of the Paracels. After the fall of Saigon and the reunification of Vietnam, the newly formed Socialist Republic of Vietnam upheld the South’s former claims to the Spratlys and Paracels. To this day, China maintains around one thousand troops in the Paracels.

After an extensive exploration program, the Philippines found the Nido oil field off the coast of Palawan Island, marking the first oil discovery in the Northwest Palawan Basin. The discovery came four years after the government passed the Oil Exploration and Development Act of 1972, which provided the legal basis for exploring and developing petroleum resources as Manila pushed for energy independence. Philippine Cities Service, Inc., the country’s first oil company, began drilling a well in the Nido oil field and launched commercial production in 1979, yielding 8.8 million barrels that year. 

China waged a short but bloody war with Vietnam, launching an offensive in response to Vietnam’s invasion and occupation of Cambodia in 1978, which ended the reign of the communist, Chinese-backed Khmer Rouge. The conflict marked the apex of tensions between Beijing and Hanoi, which were already running high after Vietnam established ties with the Soviet Union, China’s Cold War rival, the previous November. China had aided Vietnam in its wars against both France and the United States. Although both sides claimed victory, China withdrew from Vietnam after less than a month, having failed to coerce Vietnam to leave Cambodia. Roughly thirty thousand were killed in the short-lived conflict, which marked the beginning of many border disputes between Beijing and Hanoi and bolstered Vietnam’s lingering distrust of China.

After three decades of negotiations, the third and final United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS, culminated in a resolution that defined the rights and responsibilities of nations in their use of surrounding waters based on exclusive economic zones and continental shelves. The measure came into force on November 14, 1994, a year after Guyana became the sixtieth nation to sign the treaty. UNCLOS does not address sovereignty issues related to the South and East China Seas, and its vague wording has prevented it from serving as a credible body of law in resolving territorial disputes. Although the United States recognizes UNCLOS as customary international law, it has yet to ratify the treaty—a move that would give Washington a greater platform from which it could advance its economic and strategic interests.

Malaysia occupied three Spratly Islands

After roughly a decade of relative calm in the South China Sea, China and Vietnam clashed on the Johnson Reef, marking China’s first armed conflict over the Spratly archipelago. The Chinese navy sank three Vietnamese vessels, killing seventy-four sailors in one of the most serious military confrontations in the South China Sea. The incident occured after Beijing, pursuing a more assertive stance in the area, established a physical presence on Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratlys in January 1987. In response, Vietnam occupied several reefs to monitor China’s moves. The incident unfolded amid Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms of the 1980s, when Chinese economic activity began shifting to the coastal provinces, and maritime resources became increasingly prized as hydrocarbons were needed to sustain growth.

China invoked international law to expand its sea territorial to formalize its claim to both the Paracels and Spratlys

China passed the Law on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone, which laid claim to the entire South China Sea based on its historical right to the area dating from the Xia dynasty, which ruled between the twenty-first and sixteenth centuries BCE. The law employed more generous methods of territorial determination that would not necessarily be recognized and justified by UNCLOS, signed a decade earlier. The move was seen by some as a bid by China to obtain greater maritime security for itself, as Beijing was one of the most active countries at UNCLOS in attempting to obstruct the United States and Soviet Union’s efforts to secure freedom of navigation for warships.

Three Chinese naval vessels fought a ninety-minute battle with a Philippine navy gunboat near Capones Island in the Mischief Reef, part of the Spratly chain of islands claimed by Manila. The incident marked the first time China engaged in military confrontation with an ASEAN member other than Vietnam. The clash, which triggered a decline in Sino-Philippine relations, revived U.S.-Philippine military ties; soon after the incident, U.S. Navy SEALs conducted a joint exercise with their Philippine counterparts on Palawan Island, although Philippine President Fidel Ramos denied that this was connected to Manila’s row with Beijing. Tensions over the occupation subsided by midyear, when the Philippines and China signed a nonbinding code of conduct that called for a peaceful resolution to the territorial dispute and the promotion of confidence-building measures.

China and the ten ASEAN states reached an agreement in Phnom Penh on the ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, a code of conduct that sought to ease tensions and created guidelines for conflict resolution. The agreement came after six years of negotiations. Beijing had previously insisted on bilateral negotiations with claimants; China’s signing marks the first time it accepted a multilateral approach to the issue. Though the declaration fell short of a binding code of conduct, as the Philippines had sought, it signaled China’s recognition that such an agreement could work in its favor by limiting the risk of conflict in the area, which could involve the United States in the dispute.

China submitted its nine-dash line map to the United Nations, stating it “has indisputable sovereignty over the islands in South China Sea and the adjacent waters.” The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia protested the Chinese claim.

The International Energy Agency reported that China had surpassed the United States as the largest consumer of energy worldwide, consuming roughly 2.3 billion tons of total energy in 2009, approximately 4 percent more than the United States. China also became the second-largest consumer and net importer of oil, heightening the strategic importance of trade routes in the East and South China Seas for tanker shipments. The United States had been the world’s largest energy consumer since the early 1990s.

Exxon Mobil discovered oil off Vietnam’s coast in an area claimed by China. The discovery prompted the Philippine and Vietnamese leaders to agree to reinforce their maritime cooperation in the regions.

The US and the Philippines held a joint military exercise during a standoff over China’s illegal harvesting of coral and other sea life off of the Scarborough Shoal.

Vietnam passed a new maritime law claiming sovereignty over the Spratly and Paracel Islands; China raised the administrative status of the disputed islands to prefecture level.

China submitted claims to the East China Sea to the UN following the purchase of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands by the Japanese government.

Both the U.S. and China antagonized each other, with China announcing an air defence identification zone in the East China Sea surrounding the Senkaku/Diaoyou Islands. In response, the U.S. flew two jets through the surrounding airspace.

Joint US-Philippine military exercises took place near Scarborough Shoal.

Indonesia named the Natuna Sea as part of its maritime claim in the South China Sea.

Officials attending an ASEAN foreign ministers’ retreat agreed to work towards the conclusion of an effective Code of Conduct in the South China Sea based on a mutually-agreed timeline.

A US warship docked in Vietnam—the first such visit in more than 4 decades. 

US and Japanese naval forces took part in anti-submarine drills in South China Sea. Submarines are considered to be a key component in any future conflict in the region.

U.S. Navy destroyer carried out a “freedom of navigation” operation, coming within 12 nautical miles of an artificial island—Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands—built by China in the South China Sea. The operation was an by US to counter China’s efforts to limit “freedom of navigation” in the strategic waters.

The Chinese navy launched a week-long series of live fire drills in the South China Sea. The drills involved an aircraft carrier and more than 40 vessels, and displayed a show of China’s military strength on the eve of the US’s own exercises in the region. This was the largest naval review in the country’s modern history.

US officials said they planned to send an aircraft carrier group into the Taiwan Strait in response to China’s recent efforts to impose its will over the contested area. The Chinese foreign ministry warned that this could jeopardize China-US peace in the region.

British warship the HMS Albion sailed through territorial Chinese waters near the Paracel Islands and was warned by the Chinese government to leave and immediately cease such “provocative actions.”

U.S. B-52 bombers flew over the East China Sea in a move Chinese officials called “provocative.” These actions fanned the flames of rising tensions between the two nations over trade tariffs.

Sailing near the disputed Spratly Islands, US Navy warship the USS Decatur nearly collided with a Chinese destroyer. The US claimed the Chinese ship was making unsafe, aggressive maneuvers that resulted in the near collision.

China and the nations of ASEAN held their first joint naval exercises, symbolizing the Southeast nations’ desire to improve trust with China.

The U.S. military said two of its warships sailed near Gaven and Johnson Reefs in the Spratly Islands. Beijing asserted the US “infringed upon Chinese sovereignty”, claimed the ships entered without permission and that the Chinese navy ordered them to leave.

The Philippines lodged a diplomatic protest against China after more than 100 Chinese fishing boats “swarmed” Pag-asa, also known as Thitu. The island is Philippine-administered and the second-largest naturally occurring landmass in the Spratly archipelago.

Two American aircraft carriers were deployed “in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific” while China conducted military drills nearby.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared China’s claims “completely unlawful”. In response, the Chinese embassy in the US accused the US of “inciting confrontation”. 

The Trump administration blacklisted 24 Chinese companies involved in military operations and the building of islands in the South China Sea.

In his first-ever address to the United Nations General Assembly Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte invoked a 2016 arbitration ruling that invalidates China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. This ruling found that most of China’s “historical” claims were inconsistent with international maritime law. This is regarded as Duterte’s strongest statement on the matter thus far, as he has typically opted to downplay the issue in favour of maintaining closer ties with China.

China passed the Coast Guard Law, which permits the coast guard to “take all necessary measures, including the use of weapons when national sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction are being illegally infringed upon by foreign organisations or individuals at sea.” It is anticipated that this law will heighten tensions in the South China Sea.

The Philippines Coast Guard confront Chinese Navy Warship 189 in the South China Sea disputed territory.

SECDEF Austin will emphasize a commitment to freedom of the seas and push back on unhelpful and unfounded claims made by China.

This week is the fifth anniversary of an international legal ruling which rejected China’s claim to nearly all of the South China Sea. Although the PCA’s ruling is non-binding.

Admiral Michael Gilday told a media round table in Singapore that the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea was ‘enforceable’ and ‘unambiguous’. The top US navy officer’s comments follow the Pentagon chief’s reiteration that Washington views China’s South Sea claims as illegitimate.

Britain has said it has no plans to stage a naval confrontation with China in the South China Sea and that it aims to send its carrier strike group in the most direct route across the contested body of water from Singapore to the Philippine Sea.

The United States and China clashed over Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea at a high-level U.N. Security Council meeting on maritime security Monday that also put a spotlight on attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf, piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, and drug and human trafficking in the Mediterranean and Atlantic Ocean.

China’s annual summer moratorium to end on Monday, with hundreds of boats preparing to head out as other countries accuse the fleets of being part of a maritime militia

Malaysia’s successful test-fire of three live anti-ship missiles last week clearly shows it is prepared to deal with intrusions into its South China Sea territory, analysts said on Friday.

France, Germany, and non-EU member Britain view South China Sea dispute as a potential threat to international traffic, thus the three European nations issued a joint note to the United Nations almost a year ago challenging China’s claims in the sea.

China enacted a new maritime law on September 1 requiring multiple classes of foreign vessels traversing Beijing-claimed waters to provide detailed information to state authorities and take aboard Chinese pilots

The United States military will probably increase its presence in the South China Sea after pulling out of Afghanistan, in a move that will counter Chinese militarization of the disputed water, political analysts say

One of China’s most advanced new research ships has headed to the  South China Sea on its maiden voyage as Beijing boosts exploration in the resource-rich waters despite distrust by its neighbours

From September 1, China’s new maritime rules designed to control the entry of foreign vessels in what Beijing calls “Chinese territorial waters” take effect. The move is expected to have far-reaching consequences for passage of vessels, both commercial and military, in the disputed South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan Strait, and is likely to escalate the existing tension with the US and its neighbors in the region

Vietnam and its supporters accuse China of violating the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), building on and militarizing low-tide features, using its maritime militia to intimidate others and allowing its fishermen to operate illegally in others’ exclusive economic Zones (EEZs). But Vietnam is guilty of all these, and in its zeal to criticize China, the government and its supporters neglect acknowledging this.

Some accuse China of playing politics particularly in the negotiations for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, and this may be so. But they do not acknowledge that Vietnam is using the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to delay the conclusion of the Code of Conduct negotiations to advance its position against China.

China has sparked fighting fears after sending warships to Alaska amid boiling tensions with the US over the South China Sea dispute. Four Chinese warships, including one of China’s most advanced destroyers, were spotted near the Aleutian Island chain.

The new partnership was announced in a joint virtual press conference between US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison. The pact has created a significant row with France, which has now lost a deal with Australia to build 12 submarines.

US warships sailed into the disputed waters after mission supporting US withdrawal from Afghanistan. It’s the second time they have entered the area this year and comes as tensions have been rising in the region

Unilateralism, popular nationalism, the involvement of extra-regional powers are three major factors affecting the current state and future direction of the South China Sea dispute.

The Philippine foreign secretary on Thursday ordered that new diplomatic protests be filed against Beijing over the ongoing presence of more than 100 Chinese ships in waters claimed by Manila in the South China Sea.

Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense critized China after numerous military jets flew into its air defense zone in what it said was the largest incursion by Beijing to date

A U.S. nuclear submarine sustained damage and some crew members were injured when it “struck an object” while operating at depth

China’s defence ministry has demanded an end to US military operations in the South China Sea, saying they pose a threat to regional security and increase the risks of collisions and even nuclear leaks in the strategic waterway.

A total of 153 out of the 211 diplomatic notes filed over Chinese actions in the SCS were filed in 2021 alone

As Cambodia takes over the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2022, it faces an uphill task to accelerate negotiations for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.

The code, which is intended to mitigate the risk of conflict in those contested waters, has been in the works for about as long as Cambodia has been in ASEAN.

While the Philippines argues that a stronger Western presence could deter more aggressive moves from China in the South China Sea, Indonesia points out that AUKUS could provoke an arms race in the region and be detrimental to nuclear non-proliferation.

Vessels belonging to the China Coast Guard shot water cannons at Philippine Navy ships on a mission to deliver food and supplies to marines stationed on the Second Thomas Shoal. China has been justifying its actions with its new Maritime Traffic Safety Law (MTSL) as it is “safeguarding the rights and interests of the State’” by disallowing foreign vessels to enter their waters without permission.

America is committed to thwarting Chinese expansion in the South China Sea as President Biden requested over $7 billion dollars in the recent National Defense Authorization Act to prevent Chinese expansion. They continue to send warships through the sea labeling their expeditions as “Freedom of Navigation operations”.

China and the US resume maritime safety talks after the canceled meeting in 2020. The representatives from each country talked in relation to the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA), a document signed in 1998 that establishes and promotes safe activities at sea and in the air to avoid accidents and ensure proper communication procedures when an encounter occurs. During the discussion, China urged the US to stop sending ships to the disputed seas as it poses a safety risk.

39 Chinese aircrafts flew over Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) to broadcast its force. On the same day, two US Navy carrier strike groups entered the South China Sea to begin operations on enhancing communication, anti-submarine warfare, air warfare, cross-deck flights, and combat readiness.

Government personnel within China have expressed the importance of peaceful resolutions regarding the South China Sea disputes. Top diplomat Wang Yi stressed how imposing one owns will on another rejects their “oriental philosophy” while China’s foreign minister states they will no longer use its power to “bully” its neighboring nations.

Francisco Domagoso, the mayor of Manila and more commonly referred to as Isko Moreno, claims that if he is elected as president of the Philippines in the upcoming elections to adopt a zero-tolerance stance against China. He promises fishermen will be able to fish in the Sea “unharmed, unhampered, and without disruption”. This position strongly contrasts with current president, Rodrigo Duterte, who favors maintaining strong business ties.

Japan plans to acquire 10 new patrol vessels by 2030 as China continues to deploy aircrafts and carriers to disrupt the waters. The Philippines seeks to increase its defenses by obtaining 2 new warships from South Korea. Germany deployed its first warship into the South China Sea after 20 years of the nation’s absence in the Indo-Pacific.

In a joint statement between the People’s Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Pakistani President, Arif Alv, pledged the country’s loyalty and support to their long-term partner, China. Pakistan will support China’s endeavors in multiple of their foreign policies including the South China Sea in hopes to build a stronger bilateral relationship.

Since the adoption of the “Personal Information Protection Law of the People’s Republic of China”, the number of their ships with automatic Identification Systems (AIS) dropped dramatically. The inability to track a large number of Chinese ships fostered concern throughout the international community as collisions are more likely to occur and China can exert its influence and domination of the seas offline.

China announced plans to conduct over a week’s length of military drills warning other ships to stay at distance. The drills are said to take place in waters between its southern province of Hainan and Vietnam. This location is located within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) which grants it jurisdiction over living and non-living resources leading Vietnam to condemn China for infringing on its sovereignty.

Australia, Japan, and the US organized a trilateral naval training in the South China Sea. The mission was to address common concerns such as communication and maritime security. In addition, it sought to foster better relations between the countries to showcase a strong front and promote naval freedom in support of an open Sea.

The Philippines filed one of the most recent diplomatic protests, raising the count to over 200, against China due to its actions in the South China Sea. The protest was filed as a Chinese vessel engaged in “close distance maneuvering” causing fear of collision. The incident took place by Scarborough Shoal, a heavily disputed area between China and the Philippines.  

Japan and the Philippines expressed their “serious concern” for China’s action in the Sea and thus agreed to work with one another to design a Reciprocal Access Agreement. The agreement will allow the parties to visit each other’s military and coordinate joint defense exercises.

Philippine President, Rodrigo Duterte, and Chinese President, Xi Jingping, attended a bilateral meeting to discuss recent disputes in the South China Sea. The leaders agreed to “broaden the space for positive engagements” by practicing restraint and working on mutual agreements for cooperation in order to have peaceful relations in the waterway.

Since 1999, China annually imposes a fishing ban from May to August in waters north of 12 degrees latitude to improve marine ecology and promote sustainability. These waters include the Gulf of Tonkin and Paracel Islands, areas of dispute between China and Vietnam. The Vietnamese government rejected China’s fishing ban and condemned China’s actions as a violation of their sovereignty and requested to respect their sovereign rights and not destroy the peace-building efforts.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US has increased its urgency to strengthen Taiwan’s military, convinced that an invasion could occur in the coming years. In preparation for asymmetric warfare, President Tsai Ing-wen has ordered multiple weapons but the US administration has rebuffed some of their requests supporting other weapons that are better suited against the Chinese military.

In 2002 ASEAN and China agreed on a Declaration of Conduct of Parties that reiterated freedom of navigation, proper conduct in the seas, and peaceful settlements. Implementation of the agreement is viewed as faulty as conflict has increased. Amidst the conflict, a face-to-face code of conduct discussion between ASEAN and China is planned to take place later this month in Cambodia to affirm conduct in the Sea.

The Newly-elected Philippine President, Ferdinand Marcos, pledged to engage in firm discussions with China regarding disputed areas. He proclaimed that the Philippines land, sea, and costal rights will not be “trampled upon”.

A Chinese fighter jet performed dangerous maneuvers around an Australian surveillance plane which threatened the safety of the crew and was forced to return to base.  China claimed that the Australian aircraft in the South China Sea impeded their sovereignty and security and took proper, lawful measures. Despite the circumstance, Australia vows to continue to monitor the sea as it is in their right to do so.

The US will host the 28th Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise, “the world’s largest international maritime exercise” on June 29th to August 4th. The exercise will comprise 26 nations, 38 surface ships, more than 170 aircrafts and over 25,000 personnel operating under the 2022 theme of “Capable, Adaptive Partners”. The exercise provides an opportunity for training, fostering cooperation, and demonstrates the power of maritime forces from countries ranging from Chile to New Zealand.

China accused the US, Canada, and Australia for spreading false allegations that led to aerial disputes in the South China Sea. China claimed that the three nations deliberately sent invasive surveillance planes into their jurisdiction that could have provoked military action.

Philippines files another diplomatic protest against China raising the count to over 300 complaints. The most recent protest was due to China “illegally fishing” as they shadowed Philippine boats triggering the foreign ministry to state, “China has no right to fish, monitor, or interfere with the Philippines’ legitimate activities”.

China initiated the development of gas fields in the East China Sea, an area highly contested with Japan. The two nations agreed to a joint gas development program in 2008 but negotiations ceased as tensions between the two rose. Now, as China is progressing towards the median line with its unilateral gas development, Japan worries they may be siphoning off of their resources.

In 2018, despite disputing islands in the South China Sea, the Philippines and China initiated discussions regarding cooperative efforts in gathering offshore oil and gas resources. Though, as one of his final acts as President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte ordered the talks to end due to China impeding on their sovereignty.

The Philippines filed a complaint against Taiwan for live fire drills on the island internationally known as Itu Aba. The Philippines claim the island belongs to them while Taiwan claims they did nothing unlawful claiming they had the right to do so on their territory in addition to advance issues of warning.

During the G7 Summit, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced Japan’s future steps to increase its security against the rising threat of China. These steps will include developing a new National Security Strategy by the end of 2022 and doubling military spending, making Japan the third-largest military spender.

China, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines continue to engage in construction activities in the highly disputed Spratly and Paracel islands. The activities range from extending runways, dredging, expanding the harbor, and construction of mysterious structures.

China is reportedly attempting to develop an AI-driven orbital carrier to patrol the space and safeguard against any threats to their territory. China has reported that SpaceX Starlink satellites have gotten too close to the Chinese space station and are left worried about future occurrences.

Over 50 Japan and US aircrafts flew over regions of the East China Sea and Sea of Japan to demonstrate power and cooperation amid rising tensions with China and Russia. The flight was an effort to improve joint response and tactical skills between Japan and the US.

In response to the US aircraft carrier and destroyer sailing near the Spratly islands, China announced a military exercise to last 5 days near the Paracel islands, an area contested by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam but solely controlled by China.

Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi stated the military balance is quickly shifting into China’s favor. Japan faces threats from Russian and Chinese ships operating around their territory. The Defense aims to secure greater budgetary funds to manage the outside pressure and security issues.

Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister, stated that the South China Sea is not a “fighting arena” for major powers to compete in. Countries outside of the region should not get involved with the regional disputes.

Nancy Pelosi, the US Speaker of House, arrived in Taiwan to demonstrate the US commitment to protecting the island, becoming the highest-ranking member of the US government to visit in over 25 years. Prior to her arrival, China contested the visit stating it will damage peace and security in the region. China responded to her arrival by announcing a four days of joint military air and sea drills surrounding the island.

In response to the US Speaker of the House visit, China imposed sanctions on Taiwanese exports and declared “targeted military operations” surrounding the island.

ASEAN leaders met and discussed the situation in the South China Sea which included “land reclamations, activities, serious incidents in the area, including damage to the marine environment”, which has increased tensions and undermined peace and stability. The leaders reaffirmed the need to foster trust and self-restraint to avoid further escalations. 

Germany and France deployed a large air force contingent to participate in Australia’s biennial 3 week “Pitch Black” multinational air force exercise. This is Germany’s first time participating as the chief of the German Air Force stated, “we want to demonstrate that we can be in Asia within a day” amid the South China Sea crisis and Russia Ukraine war.

Malaysia and Indonesia have experienced recurring incursions by the Chinese Coast Guard for many years due to China’s 2009 exclusive maritime jurisdiction claim over regions that intersect Malaysia and Indonesia waters. The discovery of oil fields has led to increased incursions and for The Royal Malaysian Navy and Indonesian Navy to adopt a “shadowing” technique by following CCG vessels that enter their waters rather than confronting them with force. This method allows the nations to continue their economic relationship with China while monitoring China’s activities.

China’s military threat is becoming greater and more difficult to challenge following the US Speaker of the House visit earlier this month. Analysts fear the status quo is beginning to change across the Taiwan Strait due to the increased militarization.

Proofpoint and PwC Threat Intelligence released a report of a cyber-espionage campaign in the South China Sea, active since April 2022. The operation disguises itself as an Australian news website and could be targeting information on federal governments, manufacturing and energy sectors. The reports state these efforts are perpetrated by a group named TA423 / Red Ladon, a China-based actor that have been active since 2013 with interest in the Australian government and energy production in the South China Sea.

Eberhard Zorn, German Chief of Defense, stated Germany will expand military presences in the South China Sea. It has committed to sending more warships and collaborating on military drills with allies in the region.

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Interested incontributing to the Crisis Index?

We have a team of knowledgeable advisors and senior correspondents responsible for updating and maintaining our Crisis Index pages. For more information on the roles and responsibilities, click the button below.
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