Somali Civil War


Somalia, Horn of Africa

The Somali conflict is a multifaceted dispute triggered by the fall of President Said Barre regime on 27 January 1991. General Barre’s dictatorship was synonymous with extreme brutality, suppression of opposition groups, both nationalistic and Islamic, and exacerbation of interclan rivalries (clannism).  By 1988, the dissatisfaction with the government led to nationalist groups throughout the country, with Northern Somalia (modern-day Somaliland) leading the charge, to attack government and military posts, prompting the First Somali Civil war (1988-1991).

The fall of Said Barre’s regime and the Somali Civil War created a power vacuum in which nationalist and Islamic groups, warlords, clan and sub-clan militias and other actors aimed to carve out swathes of territory for their own governance. Subsequently, regional and international institutions initiated various peace and reconciliation processes in an attempt to create a stable and robust federal government, with various degrees of success. The inter clan rivalries have fuelled the tension between the Federal government and the regional states, making the consensus and state-building, as well as peacebuilding, process strenuous. The chaos resulted in the declaration of independence by Somaliland in 1991, though still not recognised by any nation in the world, and Somalia maintains its authority over the northern territory. In 1998, the Puntland region in Northern Somalia declared partial autonomy, meaning that they reserve the right to operate independently but still can be part of the Federal Government of Somalia. Conflict as a result of both internal and external factors has resulted in more than a million deaths, with many more fleeing to neighbouring countries.

In the early 2000s, there were renewed efforts to rebuild the Somali central government, which involved a dual state-building and peacebuilding process. The renewed efforts, spearheaded by the regional institution Intergovernmental Authority in Development (IGAD), led to the signing of the Arta Declaration in 2000 which addressed representation in government, a significant obstacle to the Somali peace process. The declaration asserted that all future Somali governments would use the 4:5 formula which states that the four main clans – Dorad, Hawiye, Dir (includes the Isaaq) and Rahanweym (Digil-Mirifle) will have equal representation in government while the other smaller clans will share the rest of the representation. Though Somali politicians, with the support of the regional institutions, attempted to address clan grievances, the transitional governments – the Transitional National Government and Assembly (TNG/A) (2000-2004) and Transitional Federal Government/Parliament (TFG/P) (2004-2012) – were plagued with inefficiency, infighting and corruption. Additionally, the insecurity in the country forced the President, Cabinet and the majority of the Members of Parliament to operate from Kenya, which contributed to their inability to govern.

Despite the challenges brought upon by Al-Shabaab, an insurgent group terrorising the country since 2007, the TFG/P managed to create a new constitution which effectively led to the first election since 1969. On 20 August 2012, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) was born under the leadership of Hassan Sheikh Mohamed (2012 -2016). Similar to the transitional governments, the FGS aimed to stabilise the country through building a national consensus between the government and the newly defined regional states – Jubaland, Puntland, HirShabelle, South West, Galmudug and Somaliland.  Each regional state, which is representative of the traditional clan and sub-clan territorial boundaries, was tasked with creating spaces where clan rivalries and grievances could be addressed.

Since the creation of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in 2012, each federal government has focused on creating a cohesive and inclusive political space that takes into account clan politics and alliances, as well as the threat of Al-Shabaab. One of the biggest obstacles inhibiting Somalia from moving forward cohesively is the role of clan interest, i.e. clannism, in politics. The majority of the people in power propel the interests of the clan and sub-clan rather than the interest of a united Somalia. As a result, politicians are always sceptical of the intentions of others, and therefore, unable to make significant changes. The inability for the FGS and the regional governments to work towards the common goal of creating a prosperous Somalia, fuelled by lack of trust and clan politics, is another major obstacle. Finally, the failure to put clan politics aside for the betterment of the country has slowed down security sector reform which calls for the integration of clan and sub-clan militia into the armed forces.

As to date, the FGS must find a way to balance the interest of the state and the sub-clans while tackling the threat of Al-Shabaab, and to a lesser extent, the Islamic State in Somalia (ISS).  Refer to the Al-Shabaab and ISS pages to understand the security angle of the Somali conflict.

"The people of Somalia just do not have a voice. They are to me the most forgotten people in the world."

K’naan - Singer/songwriter/poet

Key Facts

12.3 Million

Population

1 Million

Deaths

Ongoing since

2007

Where: Somalia, Horn of Africa

Dates of conflict:  1988-1991, 1991 – 2000, 2007 – present  

Refugees/Internally Displaced Peoples (IDPs) – 1.1 million 

The Key Actors

The Situation

Classification:  Civil war, Clannism, Humanitarian Crisis, Federalism vs. Centralised type of government 

 

Current situation:

Prime Minister Hussein Roble has been meeting with the regional presidents, international partners and security forces to implement the historic 27 May electoral agreement. He is expected to make progress in time for the next election benchmark, the election of the Upper House of Parliament scheduled for 23 July. So far, he, and his dispute resolution committee, travelled to Gedo region, Jubaland state to find a solution to the disagreement between the pro-President Farmaajo administration in Gedo and the Jubaland Administration. The PM is also meeting with the MPs from Somaliland after the committee in charge of overseeing the election for its MPs in Mogadishu split into two camps – pro-Speaker of the Upper House and Pro-Deputy Prime Minister.  Finally, Prime Minister Roble has met with the committee composed of police, military and AMISOM officials tasked with securing election polling stations, which are expected to be targeted by al-Shabaab.

Worsening

Analyst’s comments: Prime Minister Roble has his hand full as he ensures that the regional states adhere to the election schedule while he resolves the ongoing disputes. Every time he seems to have made leeway to solve one issue, another issue arises somewhere else. Due to this pattern, it is unclear whether the election benchmark to start the election process for the Upper House of Parliament on 23 July will take place on time, or there will be another delay. The election process is also hindered by Al-Shabaab’s intentions to disrupt the elections, seen recently with the increased number of attacks in Mogadishu, the capital city, and Galmudug state.

Timeline of the crisis

1885 – 1969: From colonisation to Somali Civil War    

By 1892, Somalia was colonised by French (Djibouti), Britain (British Somaliland and Northern Kenya), Italy (Somalia) and the Abyssinian Empire (Ogaden region in Ethiopia). In 1945, Italy lost Italian Somaliland to the British as a consequence of being on the losing side of World War Two.  The combined territory is hence a force known as British Somaliland.  By 1949, Britain relinquished its control of the area, and British Somaliland officially became the Trust Territory of Somaliland, a United Nations Trusteeship, under Italian Administration. On 1 July 1960, Somalia gained its independence, and Aden Abdullahi Osman Daar became President until 1969.

1963 – 1967: Shifta War commences between Kenya and Northern Province People’s Progressive Party (NPPPP). 

NPPPP, an ethnically Somali political party, was supported by the Somali government. The NPPPP wanted the northern part of Kenya, which is mainly ethnically Somalis, to secede to join Somalia. In 1967, Somalia and Kenya signed a Memorandum of Understanding, ensuring that Somalia would not arm armed groups in Kenya. In response to Somalia’s actions in the Shifta war, Kenya and Ethiopia signed a Mutual Defense Pact in 1964.  This was necessary at the time since Somalia and Ethiopia were also fighting and conducting cross-border attacks in each other’s territory. 

1969 – 1991: General Said Barre stages a bloodless military coup to become President. 

Said Barre comes to power soon after the assassination of the Somali President Abdirashid Ali Shermarke. His 22-year dictatorship is characterised by; 1) the marginalisation of all clan that does not belong to the Ogaden clan family, and 2) oppression of nationalist and Islamic groups. 

July 1977- March 1978: Ogaden War between Somalia and Ethiopia over the disputed Ogaden region in Ethiopia, which is inhabited by mainly ethnically Somali people  

Following the disastrous war, the Said Barre regime signed an agreement with Ethiopia that both sides pledged not to aid any opposition groups operating in their respective countries. Ethiopia was supporting the Somali nationalist groups operating from their territory while Somalia funded the ethnically Somali groups operating in the Ogaden region.  At the end of the disastrous war, few soldiers attempted to stage a coup but failed. As a result, 17 military commanders accused of being organisers of the attempted coup against Said Barre are publicly executed. 

By 1988, the conditions within Somalia had worsened significantly that the Somali National Movement (SNM) began attacking government and military posts in Northern Somalia, initiating the Somali First Civil War. While SNM fought in the North, the United Somali Congress (USC), in coordination with other smaller groups, fought against General Barre in Mogadishu. During this four-year conflict, over 300,000 Somalis died as a result of war-related casualties, hunger, and disease.

The pressure from the United Somali Congress (USC), in coordination with other smaller groups, ultimately forced President Barre to flee outside Somalia.

Refer to Pre Crisis timeline to know more about Siad Barre regime

With the Somali Civil war intensifying, the leaders of the Somali National Movement, one of the main parties against the Said Barre dictatorship, declared independence from Somalia. Between then and 2000, the Somalilanders engaged in peace conferences with key stakeholders in the country as they attempted to bring peace among the warring parties in the self-declared state.  In a decade, the Somalilanders stakeholders agreed on a constitution which underwent a referendum on 31 May 2001. The government noted that 99.7% of all eligible voters took to the polling stations to vote in the referendum. 

Though Somaliland is not recognised by any country in the world, the country enjoys bilateral ties with many European and African countries. Access to the red sea makes the country desirable to many countries in the West.

The sense of victory over defeating General Said Barre was short-lived since the coalitions created to defeat him collapsed due to inter-clan conflicts. When the alliance between the two most influential leaders, General Aideed and Ali Ahmed, who were co-founders of the United Somali Congress (USC), broke out, fighting between them resulted in the ultimate Battle for Mogadishu. The fighting between the two parties caused the United Nations to intervene. Eventually, General Aideed declared himself President, but it was short-lived because he was shot by one of his supporters.

The conflict between the General Aideed and Ali Mahdi in Mogadishu caused the United Nations to intervene through a Security Council Resolution. Through this process, the United Task Force in Somalia (UNITAF), a US-led military operation, was deployed in 1993. The most notable confrontation was the Black Hawk Down incident where suspected General Aideed supporters shot down a U.S. military plane. The event led to the death of 18 U.S. troops who were then paraded around the city as a sign of victory over the Americans. The U.S. military immediately abandoned their mission in Somalia following the incident. A combination of the Black Hawk Down incident and the deaths of other U.N. peacekeepers forced the U.N. to begin the process of withdrawing personnel from Somalia.

Following in the footsteps of Somaliland, Puntland regional state of Somalia declares that it would operate as a semi-autonomous state within Somalia. The declaration came after a three-month conference in Garowe, the capital of the regional state, with major local stakeholders in the regional state. As a semi-autonomous state, Puntland, unlike Somaliland, is not seeking international recognition and is part of the Federal States of Somalia.  

Somaliland and Puntland have been fighting over the Sool and Sanaag regions that border the two states. Each side claims the area is a part of their territory. As a result, the troops of the two side engage in gun battles that sometimes lead to the death of civilians. Each side has stationed troops in the disputed area, as well as elected regional governors.

The new millennium brought about a renewed effort to re-establish a Somali Federal Government. Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a Horn and East African regional institution, spearheaded the processes. In 2000, the Arta declaration, the basis of all subsequent Somali governments, was signed in Djibouti. The declaration asserted that all future Somali governments would use the 4:5 formula which states that the four main clans – Dorad, Hawiye, Dir (includes the Isaaq) and Rahanweym (Digil-Mirifle)) would have equal representation in government while the other smaller clans will share the rest of the representation.  The Arta Declaration also established the Transitional National Government/Assembly (TNG/A). Both the TNG and TNA proved to be ineffective to bring any incremental change as it was riddled with corruption, anti-Ethiopian rhetoric and was unable to extend its authority outside the capital of Mogadishu.

Following the collapse of the transitional government, which was also created through the Arta Declaration, the Eldoret Conference created the Somali Transitional Federal Government/Parliament (TFG/P). The TFG/P governed Somalia until the creation of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in 2012.

The United Islamic Courts (UIC) is a predecessor of al-Shabaab. UIC was formed when it splintered from Al-Ittihad al-Islamiyah (AIAI), a relatively moderate Islamic group. When UIC was established, they immediately had an instant connection with the business community in Mogadishu. The business community believed in the UIC’s ability to maintain peace and security in the city since they did not charge taxes and other forms of payment like the other warlords who controlled different neighbourhoods in Mogadishu. The business community did not mind the Islamic rhetoric as they saw their version of Islamism as more moderate compared to other groups. By 2006, UIC had grown in popularity and military strength. Following their military build-up, UIC challenged the authority of the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The two sides fought for the control of Mogadishu in which UIC won, forcing the TFG to relocate the seat of government to Baidoa. Since UIC was created with remnants of AIAI, the Ethiopian government was concerned over its rise. By December 2006, the Ethiopian military had invaded Somalia, with the support of the U.S., to oust the UIC from power, which only took a month.

The African Mission in Somalia is a peacebuilding mission approved and sanctioned by the African Union and United Nations. Following the approval in February, Uganda and Burundi had deployed troops to support the Somali Transitional Federal Government’s (TFG) efforts to stabilise the country.

Note: Analysts claim that one of the reasons why AMISOM was approved quickly was due to the U.S. supporting the invasion of Somalia by Ethiopian troops to remove UIC from power. Ethiopian troops need an exit strategy following the defeat of UIC since they were technically breaking the 1992 U.N. arms embargo.

After the fall of the Islamic Courts with the help of Ethiopia, and later the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops), Somalia was once again forced to restart its state-building process. One of the biggest tasks that the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) needed to do was to build coalitions with the warlords and other clan leaders (i.e. non-state actors) that had gained territory between the fall of Said Barre in 1991 and the rise/fall of Islamic Courts. In the political front, many of the non-state actors wanted political positions, which for the most part, the TFG leadership agreed. The continuously changing alliances in Somali politics remained the major setback for Somalia. The changing alliances that no president has re-elected for a second term, no prime minister finished their term of office as Parliament would vote them out. 

The second major obstacle that the TFG government needed to accomplish was to move the seat of government to Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. Between 2000-2007, though the seat of government was Mogadishu, most of the members of Parliament (M.P.s) and top leadership lived in Nairobi. When the Islamic Courts took over the Mogadishu, the remaining M.P.s moved the seat of government to Baidoa, another major city in Somalia. The new plan by the TFG is to move the seat of government back to Mogadishu with the help of AMISOM troops who protect government officials, and the rest of the M.P.s operating from Nairobi had to move back to Somalia. By 2010, the TFG was operating from the capital though al-Shabaab operatives assassinated M.P.s and conducted major attacks on government buildings.

One of the significant accomplishments that occurred despite the Somali conflict raging on is the creation of the Somali Federal Government (SFG).  The creation of FGS is seen as a significant step in the stabilisation efforts for Somalia, which would be made complete when the threat of al-Shabaab is reduced. One of the essential elements of the new constitution is that it made Somalia into a federalist state which created the federal states of HirShabelle, Puntland, Jubaland, South West, Galmudug and Somaliland. Naming Somaliland as one of the regional states of Somalia fuelled further issues between Somaliland and Somalia since Somaliland continues to maintain that they are independent of Somalia. 

The first president under the new constitution was Hassan Sheikh Mohamed who served the office from 20 August 2012 to 16 February 2017.

Following a meeting with federal politicians and politicians from Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo regions, who gathered in the port city of Kismayo, Jubaland was unilaterally declared as a new Federal Member State. Delegates at the conference declared Ahmed Mohamed Islaan “Madobe”, as the new President of the state. The FGS quickly objected to the appointment of Ahmed Madobe as the President of Jubaland. The FGS stated that the process was not constitutional and did not engage with the Somali government in the process.  Jubaland state quickly gained the support from Kenya, which borders the federal state and is part of the regional peacekeeping force.  

Ahmed Madobe was a former leader of Al-Shabaab when his militia Ras Kamboni Brigade joined the extremist group. By the beginning of 2013, following talks with the Somali government, Ras Kamboni Brigade defected and joined the government forces. 

The objection from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) about the process of the election of Ahmed Madobe as President of Jubaland State resulted in bloody clashes in Jubaland. 

Ethiopia brokered a deal between all parties that saw the formation of an Interim Juba Administration (IJA). The key stakeholders agreed to control key revenue generating sources, i.e. seaport and airport jointly.

The northern regional state of Puntland announced that they have cut off all ties with the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). The Puntland administration accused the FGS of refusing to share power and foreign aid with the region in line with the country’s federal structure, as well as not doing enough in its fight against al-Shabaab. Puntland would only resume its relationship with Mogadishu if the government respects the country’s federal structure.

South West Administration, one of the five regional governments, is re-established as a regional state with Barawa as its capital but later moved to Baidoa.  The re-establishment of the S.W. the regional state comes after a convention in Baidoa between federal government of Somalia (FGS) officials and local representatives. After three months of discussion with stakeholders, Madobe Nunow was elected as President of the newly founded S.W. State.  

On 1 April 2002, Hassan Muhammad Nur Shatigadud, established the South West Administration. The administration lasted until 2005 when it was dissolved. Hassan Nur was the leader of the Rahanweyn Resistance Army (RRA), one of the major influential clans and militia in the country.  In 2005, the administration was dissolved when the founder Hassan Nur agreed to be part of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG).

As soon as South West State was founded, the regional government and its neighbour, Jubaland, entered a row over the boundaries of the regional States.  The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) initially took sides in the conflict, saying that some of the districts (Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba) that S.W. had claimed to be part of their territory were already allocated to Jubaland regional government in the Addis Ababa agreement.  After months of heated internal politics in the regional state, with the support from the Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, South West agreed to relinquish the three disputed districts back to Jubaland. It took six months for the agreement between South West State and Jubaland to be finalised.   

Somali President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed congratulated clan elders and other local leaders for agreeing to terms to create the Galmudug regional state. Following months of discussion and reconciliation conferences, a landmark agreement between delegates from the regional state of Galmudug, Himan and Heb Administration and Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jamaah (ASWJ) Administration. The three parties agreed to unite and form an inclusive regional government. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) appointed a committee of FGS Cabinet members to support the process of the creation of the state. 

To ensure that the process of unification goes smoothly, all three administrations agreed to hand over command of its military forces to the federal police. Himan and Heb Administration followed through with the agreement while Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jamaah (ASWJ) Administration withdrew from the conference and refused to withdraw its troops from Dhusamareb. ASWJ argued they lack representation in the new government. Interestingly, the capital of Galmudug was moved to Dhusamareb from Adado to appease the ASWJ. Tensions between Galmudug state and ASWJ reached an all-time high when troops from each side engaged in fierce gun battles in Abudwaak town. Local media reported that at least 20 people were killed in the two-day fighting. ASWJ returned to the negotiation table after intervention from the Somali international community. 

Once again, the Puntland regional state has cut ties with the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). This time, Puntland president Dr Abdiweli Mohamed Ali Gaas noted that his administration strongly opposes the creation of the Galmudug. He further states that he is against the creation because “it runs counter to the constitution.” He added that he is in dismay over the involvement of international envoys in an “agreement that went beyond the clauses and articles in the Federal constitution.”

Three months later, Puntland, with the support from the U.N. Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the E.U., agreed to restore their relationship with the federal government. The agreement with the Somali government assured Puntland that the creation of the Galmudug state would not affect its borders. The agreement also stipulated that there will be an even distribution of international assistance. Further discussion over the provisions of the constitution by a parliamentary committee representing Puntland and the FGS.    

Lengthy negotiations between Hiraan and Shabelle regions in Somalia to create HirShabelle regional state conclude. The negotiations end with the election of President in which Ali Abdulahi Osable becomes President of the regional state. He was elected by 90 parliamentarians which 60 of whom voted for Osable.  

Obsable’s government immediately had problems. He was unable to create a cabinet 45 days after being sworn into power. Following a two-month extension given by the regional Parliament granted, president Osable created his 23-person Cabinet. The delays in the process was a result of opposition from some clan enders in the Hiraan region that opposed the President’s pick.

Abdullahi Farmaajo was elected as the President of Somalia following the parliamentary election in December 2016/January 2017. 

Before becoming President, Farmaajo served as Prime Minister for eight months during Sharif Sheikh Ahmed’s presidency (Jan 2009 – August 2012). His short stint as Prime Minister was met with protest as thousands of civilians, soldiers and legislators did not want the President to accept his resignation. His resignation came due to the pressure from the regional and international community at the Kampala Accord meetings that wanted the technocratic Cabinet to be re-composed.

The international community welcomed the election of Mohamed Abdi Waare. U.N. Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) noted that voting “took place in an open and public process.”   

The Somali Peace Building Fund aims to facilitate youth political empowerment by enabling Somali young women and men to engage in meaningful engagement in governance, peacebuilding and reconciliation. This fund is crucial since two-thirds of the Somali population is under the age of 25. 

Note: The Somali Peace Building Fund is part of the broader U.N. Peacebuilding Fund (PBF) which currently supports more than 120 projects in 25 countries.

As part of its mandate, UNSOM facilitates discussion among key stakeholders in the various regional states. This time, their services were taken to Galkayo, Galmudug state where they facilitated discussions among local leaders, police and community leaders aimed to establish a community forum and joint police community action plans. The UN-led process hoped to safeguard the ceasefire between two regional states, Puntland and Galmudug who are fighting over boundaries of their respective territories. Following the discussions, participants partook in training on community policing and leadership.

The November 2018 elections for the presidency in the South West State was problematic from the very beginning. The incumbent, Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, was showing signs that he would not relinquish the position of President easily. Twin bombings in the capital city of S.W. State, Baidoa, in October led to the death of two presidential hopefuls. To make matters worse, 15 members of the election committee resigned from their post, claiming that the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) was interfering with the local process. As a result, the election was postponed by ten days from 18 November. 

The second obstacle for the South West election was the opposition from the FGS for the former al-Shabaab leader, Mukhtar Robow, from running for office. The former deputy of Al-Shabaab defected to the Somali government in 2017, five years after leaving al-Shabaab due to disputes with then leader of the extremist group, Ahmed Godane. He was very popular among the people. His popularity led to his arrest, causing major protests in Baidoa. The protest led to the death of at least 12 civilians, a regional member of Parliament (M.P.) and dozens more injured.  The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) said that Robow is unable to run for local government as he is subject to U.N. Security Council sanction, as well as being a security threat. Robow has not been released from government-imposed house arrest in Mogadishu. 

With Mukhtar Robow arrested and unable to partake in the election, a hurried election took place with Somalia’s State Minister for Trade, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed “LaftaGareen” winning the election. This election was heavily criticised as analysts saw the election as a fraudulent attempt by the FGS to ensure a supporter of the government is in power. 

Incumbent President, Ahmed Islam Madobe, was re-elected as the President of Jubaland regional state. He won more than two-thirds of the votes cast by local elders, with the only female candidate winning the remainder of the votes. In his acceptance speech, he said, “I’m ready to hold dialogue with the opposition and address any issues they may have.” 

Some of the candidates boycotted the elections, saying that the process was rigged to ensure that Madobe wins. Before the election took place, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) announced that they would not accept the outcome of the poll, calling the process “not free and fair.” 

At the same time, one of the candidates and a staunch opponent of President Madobe, Serrar organised a separate poll in which he was elected as President. 

In an escalation of tension between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and its regional member state, Jubaland, the FGS has blocked all entry to the port city of Kismayo. The authorities ordered the closure of air, land and sea borders for a week. The blockade comes a day after the announcement of the contentious election results in Jubaland which saw incumbent President Ahmed Islam Madobe winning a second term. 

Tensions increased further when in September, the FGS banned all direct flights to the port city of Kismayo and the capital of Jubaland state. The government has called for all official and regional planes to stop in Mogadishu before heading to the port city.

Galmudug state reconciliation conference begins in Dhusamareb. The reconciliation conference is a Somali-owned process where stakeholders in a regional state come together to address issues affecting the state while also choosing representatives to part of the technical electoral commission. One of the contentious issues is when the election should take place. The current President of Galmudug state, Ahmed Dualle Gelle Haaf insists that since he signed a power-sharing agreement with Sufi group Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a (ASW) in December 2017, the election should take place a year after the intended date of December 2020.  The federal government of Somalia disagrees and is pushing for the regional election to take place as expected in December 2020.  

At the U.N. General Assembly meeting, Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo noted the role the country has been playing in the socio-economic development of the Horn of Africa. He highlighted how cooperation between the countries in the region has only strengthened political stability and social and cultural connectivity. Moreover, he spoke of the upcoming 2020/21 elections, which they aim to be the first universal suffrage election since 1969. 

President Farmajo also urged the international community to continue to support Somalia to ensure the tangible progress does not fade away. They cautioned that without security, all the gains could be diminished. “With the help of our international partners, we are striving to rid ourselves of the last pockets of violent extremism and terrorism,” he said, stressing that the task would not be easy, especially given the “violence, cowardice and opportunistic guerrilla tactics of Al Shabaab.”

More than six Somali opposition parties, including two parties belonging to former presidents of Somalia, have joined to form a new political alliance, the Forum for National Parties (FNP). In a live press briefing, former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed (2009-2012), who leads Himilo Qaran Party, was announced to head the NFP. Former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed (2012-2017), who leads the UPD party, also joined the NFP.  

The fourth annual Somalia Partnership Forum in Mogadishu brought together over 200 representatives from the Somali government, private sector and international community. Topics discussed included planned universal suffrage elections, increased trade relationships, and security.  The forum produced the Mutual Accountability Framework (MAF) which called for Somalia to adopt the electoral law before 2020 and pass the new constitution by June 2020. The adoption of the new constitution should outline precise functions and powers of the federal government and the regional states.  The MAF also calls for a national reconciliation process to continue and to ensure that the quotas of women and youth in Parliament to be upheld. 

Somalia’s Deputy Prime Minister Mahdi Muhammad Ghulaid said; “We are under no illusion to underestimate the myriad challenges ahead of the country’s full recovery, which demands concerted political and financial commitment from both local stakeholders and international partners.

The U.S. embassy in Somalia announced that they have reopened its Embassy in Mogadishu. The U.S. closed its Embassy amid the civil war in 1991 after dissatisfied militias toppled dictator Said Barre’s regime. U.S. ambassador to Somalia said, “Today we reaffirm the relations between the American people and the Somali people and our two nations. It is a significant and historic day that reflects Somalia’s progress in recent years, and another step forward in regularising U.S. diplomatic engagement in Mogadishu since recognising the federal government of Somalia in 2013.”

Incumbent Jubaland president Ahmed Islam Madobe finally held is inauguration ceremony for the controversial election in August where he claims he won the election. The August election was disputed by both the international community and locals alike due to the irregularities. Locals claimed that President Madobe paid the majority of the M.P.s and elders who are tasked with electing the President. 

U.N. agencies – U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), World Food Program (WFP), U.N. Children’s Fund (UNICEF), U.N. Refugee Agency (UNHRC) U.N. Support Mission to Somalia (UNSOM) – are scaling up their efforts to help flood-affected Somalis. The U.N. agencies have been sending aid filed planes to affected areas where they have distributed portable water, hygiene kits, medical supplies and foodstuffs. Additionally, 2.58 Million dollars have been raised by UNHCR for flood victims. 

Somalia has been hit with devastating floods that have made hundreds of thousands Internally Displaced Persons. U.N. estimates that 370,000 Somalis have been displaced. The most affected town. Also, at least 25 have been killed and 47 others injured since the flooding begun at the end of October. Beletweyne (Beledweyne) is 85% submerged in water, according to the U.N. 

Qatar sent 88 tons of various aid including medicine, blankets, mosquito nets, cooking utensils, gloves, water filters, iron and plastic jerricans. In addition to sending aid, the Ambassador of both countries, accompanied by Somali government officials, made a state visit to the most affected town, Beletweyne (Beledweyne), which is in HirShabelle region state. The ambassadors also met with region president, Mohamed Abdi “Waare.”

The Somali government thanked both Qatar and Turkey for their efforts to help affected victims.

The Somali Democratic Council (SDC), a lobby group in the U.S., wrote to the U.N. accusing Ethiopian troops of preventing Jubaland Vice President from visiting the city of Belet-Hawo, sometimes referred to as Bula Hawa, in Gedo region, part of the Jubaland state. “Mr Secretary General! We the Somali Democratic Council would like to make you aware of the grave and deeply disturbing events that are unfolding in the Jubbaland State of Somalia where non-Amisom Ethiopian troops are wreaking unimaginable havoc by detaining duly elected officials in the cities of Beled-Hawo, Dolow, and Luuq [all in Gedo],” reads the letter signed by Abdikarim A. Omar, the council’s chairman. In the letter, SDC claims that the incident is “a clear and unmistakable invasion” by the Ethiopian military.

Somalia’s Jubaland Vice President, Mohamed Sayyid Adan, escapes to the Kenyan border town of Madera. He claims that Ethiopian forces have stopped his movement, adding that the troops had stopped him from entering the Somali town of Belet Hawo. Unnamed sources say that his and his entourage’s trip to Kenya was facilitated by Kenyan Defense forces (KDF). The KDF has not commented on the claims.

A U.N. Monitoring Group report alleges Ethiopian president Abiy Ahmed fanning instability in Somalia. The report says that Ethiopia has continued to play a role in domestic politics, whether through funding or military support.  The opposition group in Somalia, Forum for National Parties (FNP), agreed with the findings, adding that they have reports of non-AMISOM Ethiopian troops crossing the border in Somalia. “The Ethiopian National Defence Forces have been repeatedly involved in illegal activities whose outcome could at best undermine the fragile state-building and nascent democratic processes in Somalia,” the statement said in part.    

Ethiopian Ambassador to Kenya, Meles Alem, dismissed the claims, saying that the allegations do not hold water. “One of the pillars of Ethiopian foreign policy is non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. That is our track record,” Meles said. “As a good neighbour, we have only played constructive roles.”

Head of U.N. mission in Somalia, while speaking to members of the National Independent Election Commission, reiterated global partners desire to back the democratic exercise during the upcoming 2020/2021. Somali elections are supposed to take place in December 2020 and February 2021

The international community in Somalia, which includes the African Union, European Union, USA and other stakeholders, congratulated the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) for reaching an agreement with stakeholders in Galmudug. The regional state of Galmudug could not go through the election period until the FGS could create an agreement with Alhu Sunnah Wal-Jama’a (ASWJ). This moderate Sufi group has been essential in the fight against al-Shabaab. The two sides could not agree on how many seats ASWJ would get in the new Parliament which is meant to be elected in late December.

After many delays and disagreements about allocations of government seats, Galmudug has three governments with three presidents. The FGS process, recognised by the international community, saw Ahmed Abdi Kariye “QoorQoor” elected President. Disputing the elections, the influential leader of the Sufi group, Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a (ASWJ), Sheikh Shari, declared himself President. The former President, Ahmed Duale “Haaf,” refused to cede power.

The Somali Parliament passed the historical election bill which was later signed into law by the Somali President. The election bill calls for the first one-man, one-vote election in Somalia. Somalis are expected to head to the polls in November/December 2020 for the parliamentary elections and January/February 2021 for the presidential elections. After using the 4:5 clan bases system, which is a power-sharing model that gives equal representation for four main clans, since 2000, the election law abolishes the system. Though the system is being replaced, clan representation in Parliament would still be ensured in the new election bill. 

The last time Somalia had a universal suffrage election was in 1969 before a bloodless coup in the same year brought to power Said Barre’s dictatorship.

African Development Bank (AfDB) has endorsed Somalia’s donor-supported plan to settle arrears it owes to lenders. The decision came following a meeting between the AfDB board and Somalia’s Ministry of Finance.  The bank has agreed for the $122.55 million debt to cleared. 

AfDB had suspended engagement with Somalia for almost three decades due to the chaos and insecurity. The Bank had imposed sanctions against project financing, as well as giving of loans or grants.

Following 24 hours of fighting in Galmudug state capital, Dhusamareb, Sufi group Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a (ASWJ) have surrendered to the government soldiers. Government soldiers (SNA) stormed ASWJ headquarters forcing the group leader, Sheikh Mohamed Shakir and spiritual leader, Moallim Mohamud Sheikh, to surrender.  The government spokesperson said that the SNA had disarmed all ASWJ militia. The ASWJ leader also released a statement, adding that the group has decided to focus on religious matters and will no longer be in politics. The 24-hour fighting led to at least 22 people being killed. 

Following the elections that took place at the end of January 2020, tensions in Galmudug regional state have been rising. The disputed elections led to three different governments, including one supported by the ASWJ. The tension reached its peak when ASWJ and SNA fought over a checkpoint into the city. 

Note: ASWJ has been instrumental in the fight against al-Shabaab militants in Galmudug state since 2007. They have assisted government forces in liberating towns and villages from the militant group.

The clashes between Federal government forces (SNA) and Jubaland security forces (JSF), supported by forces loyal to fugitive Abdirashid Janan, who serves as Jubaland security minister but escaped from NISA detention centre in Mogadishu. The clashes between the two sides took place in Belet Hawo, which resulted in the displacement of at least 65,000 civilians.

  • Somalia’s international community expressed their concern about the increased security build-up in the Gedo region in Jubaland regional state in Somalia.  They urged the actors involved to exercise restraint, to reduce the presence of security forces in Gedo, and to avoid any actions that could spark violence. 
  • The international community addressed the tension between Kenya and Somalia. Both sides accuse the other of violating its territorial integrity. The international community welcomed the communication between Somali President Farmajo and Kenya’s President Kenyatta on 5 March. They urged both sides to de escalate tension, to cooperate on border security and to form a joint committee to address issues of diplomacy and trade
  • Note: International Community countries represented in the press release include African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Denmark, Ethiopia, European Union, Germany, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States, United Nations.

U.N. envoy to Somalia, Ambassador James Swan, urged Puntland regional government, President Deni, to be part of the conversation with the FGS to address pressing challenges affecting the country. During the meeting between the two leaders in Puntland, Amb Swan said that he, as well as other regional leaders, should come together, in the spirit of national unity, to overcome difference and find consensus on how best to move forward, in the interest of the Somali people.”

Jubaland President Ahmed Islam Madobe claims that a plot to overthrow him and his government has been thwarted. The President promoted the top Jubaland force commander, Mahad Mohamed Islam, who had been offered at least 1 million dollars to overthrow the Jubaland president. The force commander alleges that Federal government intelligence (NISA) head, Fahad Yasin, offered him the money. He also alleges that the NISA head asked his help in taking Afmadow and Dhobley towns from the control of the Jubaland Forces. Mahad Islam claims that the Federal government sent $110,000, rerouted through the Jubaland Ministry of Finance, to assist with the logistics of accomplishing the desired task. At the ceremony, President Madobe said he is “fully satisfied with [the force commander’s] patriotism to defend our territory. To counter the enemy, we ought to denounce their compromise and fight for our people.”

Somali Foreign Affairs, Amb Ahmed Isse Awad, urged the Puntland President Deni, to mend their relationship with the federal government of Somalia. Speaking during the Puntland State Consultation Forum, the Ambassador advised both sides to tone down the accusations and work towards resolving differences. 

The new Galmudug president, Ahmed Abdi Kariye “QoorQoor”, and his deputy, Ali Dahir Eid, were inaugurated as the new leaders of the Galmudug state. The election took place on 2 February. The delay in the process is a result of disputed elections that led to three presidents in the regional state.     

On 13 April, the newly elected President of Galmudug state in Somalia, Ahmed Abdi Kariye “QoorQoor” took over from his predecessor, Ahmed Duale Gelle “Haaf.” The ceremony took place in Dhusamareb, the administrative capital of the state, where lawmakers from the federal Parliament were also in attendance.

  • Since the election in Jubaland regional state in Somalia in August 2020, the controversial winner of the election, Ahmed Madobe, has been opposed by three other candidates (Abdirizak Hiddig, Dahir Ahmed Sheikh, and Abdinasir Serrar) who declared their presidency.  The disjointed nature of the regional politics forced President Madobe to initiate talks with the rivals from March 2020. After almost two months, the three sides have agreed to end the political stalemate in Jubaland. The rivals agreed to accept the presidency of Madobe while Madobe agreed not to seek a third term. The opposition leaders would be added into the current local government. 

The end of stalemate in Jubaland was welcomed by the Somali international community who welcomed the news. “the agreement represents a helpful step towards resolving the disputes that emerged from the Jubaland electoral process in August 2019, which left the communities and political stakeholders divided.   Disputed electoral outcomes in Jubaland and the other Federal Member States over the past 18 months underscore the importance of credible electoral processes in which Somalis may choose their leaders in accordance with the Provisional Federal Constitution and Federal Member State constitutions, the statement read in part.

The federal government of Somalia (FGS) has officially recognised the election of President Madobe of Jubaland, one year after the election took place. The FGS noted that President Madobe would be the interim leader of the regional state for a period of two years.  The statement urged the Jubaland president to embark on a reconciliation path that will bring both parties together.  In the August 2020 election in Jubaland, the FGS rejected the election process, claiming that the process was flawed and was not “free and fair.” 

The FGS decision to reconcile with Jubaland is very beneficial to the federal government. At this time, the FGS has a good relationship with three of the regional states (HirShabelle, South West, Galmudug), building a better relationship with Jubaland and has a bad relationship with Puntland. Cohesion between the regional states and the federal government is essential for the success of Statebuilding in Somalia

Somali President Abdullahi Farmaajo announced that he had invited the leaders of the five regional states for a meeting in Mogadishu from 5 to 8 July. The leaders are expected to discuss the upcoming election and rebuild the relationship between the federal and regional governments. By 25 June, the presidents of Jubaland and Puntland have not responded to the invitation while the rest have agreed to meet with President Farmaajo.  Technically, the Somali President is supposed to hold frequent meetings with the regional leaders, but due to the deteriorating relationship, the President has not held the meeting in two years. 

The U.N. Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) praised the upcoming meeting between the regional states and the federal government. UNSOM Head, Amb James Swan, said that the meeting was an essential step in regular dialogue among Somali stakeholders.

Following months of stagnation of talks between Somalia and Somaliland, President of Djibouti called both leaders for a meeting in Djibouti.  At the opening ceremony, President Farmaajo condemned the actions of former Somali Dictator Siad Barre who committed human rights atrocities during the civil war in 1988. This is the first Somali President to acknowledge the incident, which is a major issue of contention between Somaliland and Somalia. 

The three-day meeting resulted in Somalia and Somaliland agreeing to, 1) refrain from any action that could derail the talks, 2) politicising humanitarian assistance and developmental aid, and 3) establish a technical subcommittee that will focus on co-management of the Somaliland airspace, and another subcommittee on security. The subcommittees are expected to meet in Djibouti in two weeks while a joint-ministerial committee is supposed to meet in 45 days. 

The international community in Somalia, as well as the Arab League, wrote statements praising both sides for their commitment to restart talks.

The Chairperson of the National Independent Electoral Commission (NEIC), Halima Yarey said that the expected one man, one vote could not feasibly take place during the 2020/21 election. The commission affirmed that the earliest that can take place is by March 2021. The decision is based on the fact that the election commission would need several months to conduct a national registration that does not exist. The commission also noted that the implementation of a biometric system of registration rather than manual would take longer. 

The U.N. Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) thanked the commission for presenting technical options to achieve direct voting for Somalis. The U.N. envoy urged the Somali leadership to quickly discuss and agree upon an electoral model ahead of the upcoming election. 

The E.U. Mission in Somalia also commented on the announcement by the electoral commission. The body stated that the presented options were “realistic and cost effective.”  “The E.U. joins the U.N. in congratulating the NIEC and its Chairperson for the presentation Saturday. We also insist on the need for political consensus based on agreed principles, the opening of political space (from selection to election), and timely elections. March 2021 option seems technically more realistic, financially more cost-effective, and better aligned with agreed principles.”

The President of the five regional governments (Jubaland, Puntland, HirShabelle, South West and Galmudug) opt to attend the meeting organised by Somali president Abdullahi Farmaajo expected to take place from 5 to 8 July.  The regional leaders will hold a meeting among themselves in Dhusamareb instead. This decision comes after leaders of Jubaland and Puntland refused to attend the meeting in Mogadishu, which was supposed to be the first meeting between the regional leaders and the federal President in two years.

The Somali President, Abdullahi Farmaajo agreed with the majority consensus that the 2020/21 election should take place on time and in accordance with the constitution. “President Farmajo also stressed the need to avoid term extension and ensure the country holds an election that is in line with the constitution and the electoral law, which must take place in an environment of peace, consultation and understanding,” the statement said in part. 

The Prime Minister, Hassan Ali Khaire, also stated that he is against term extension and that the elections should take place as expected.  PM Khaire said that he believes that a term extension would lead to chaos in the country.

The President of the five regional governments (Jubaland, Puntland, HirShabelle, South West and Galmudug) rule out the possibility of universal suffrage (one man, one vote) in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential election. The regional leaders say that the government must create an alternative, inclusive model as a substitute during the upcoming 2020/21 election. The previous election (2016/17), Somalia used the indirect vote where the 275 parliamentarians were voted in by 14 025 delegates. The M.P.s later voted for the President. 

The announcement comes as part of the Dhusamareb Summit (9 – 12 July) between the regional leaders where they discussed pressing issues affecting the country such as the electoral model, the strained relationship between the regional states and the federal government and security.

Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo met with the leader of Jubaland administration, Ahmed Mohamed Madobe during the early stages of the Dhusamareb conference. This is the first meeting between the two leaders in years. Though tension between Mogadishu and Jubaland was existent, the situation got worse when Mogadishu failed to recognise Madobe’s election in 2019.  The meeting between the two leaders comes less than a month after President Farmaajo noted its necessary to bury the hatchet. In the presidential statement, the Somali President stated that the federal government would recognise the interim administration

Following the four-day conference (19-22 July), the leaders of the federal government and the regional states published a final communique detailing the agreement between the parties.  The leaders agreed to 1) hold timely and credible elections, 2) create a technical committee with representatives from the federal government and regional states that will address the election model, 3)strengthen political, and economic cooperation, and 4) intensify cooperation to eliminate al-Shabaab from Somalia. The leaders agreed to meet back in Dhusamareb in two weeks

Somalia’s regional states have appointed two representatives each to the national technical committee on elections. The appointment is in line with the agreement agreed upon during the meeting between the federal government and regional states in Dhusamareb. The Interior Minister Mohamed Abdirahman Dhabancad and Deputy State House Director Abdiweli Ali Abdulle will represent Puntland state while State Minister Hirsi Jama Gani and State Minister Hamza Abdi Bare will represent Kismayo based regional state as Mohamed Ali Adle and Abdi Mohamed Farah will defend the interest of Hirshabelle state. Galmudug and Southwest state leaders are scheduled to appoint their delegates to complete the list ahead of the meeting in Dhusamareb next month.

Somalis and the international community woke up to the news that the Somali Prime Minister, Hassan Ali Khaire, was ousted from office following a vote of no-confidence by the Parliament. The majority of the Parliament that voted to oust the PM stated that the Hassan Khaire was “ineffective” and not “fulfilling promises made to the nation” Only 8 M.P.s voted against the vote of no-confidence.

The deputy PM, Mahdi Guled, was quickly appointed acting PM by President Farmaajo.

Puntland President, Said Abdullahi Deni, described the FGS parliament’s decision to remove PM Khaire from office as illegal.  He further accuses Somali president Farmaajo of violating the constitution. He said, “What happened in Parliament is aimed at derailing the Dhusamareb conference, and I put the blame for it on the President of the Republic. What happened yesterday is against all  existing laws and regulations that guide the process of removing a Prime Minister from office.”

The African Union and the regional body, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) called for unity in realising concrete agreement on ongoing election talks in Somalia. The two African bodies called on Somali leadership to bring all stakeholders together to ensure that the talks in Dhusamareb later next month would result in an agreed election model. “We further underscore the importance of ensuring that the agreed electoral model that will emerge from the technical committee is underpinned by broad-based consensus involving parliament, political parties, civil society and other Somali stakeholders,” the statement read in part.

In a statement, the international community in Somalia expressed their concern about the current political environment that saw the Parliament oust Prime Minister Hassan Khaire. They cautioned against a lack of cooperation among various political stakeholders during this critical transitional period in the country. “Any attempt by a single stakeholder to unilaterally impose electoral modalities will lack legitimacy and will not be implementable without the essential support from other stakeholders,” the statement said in part. The international partners urged the FGS and the regional states to adhere and honour the Dhusamareb agreement

In a separate statement, the E.U. Foreign policy chief, Josep Borell, commented on the situation in Somalia. He noted that the vote showed “serious disrespect for the constitutional foundations” of the country. “Developments in Somalia parliament on Saturday represent a setback for Somalia and the confidence of the European Union in the progress of Somalia.” He added that the vote did not meet the minimal constitutional requirements.”

In a separate statement, the U.S. expressed their concern over the removal of PM Khaire.  The U.S. embassy noted that the move to oust the Prime Minister could escalate political tension in the country. The U.S. termed the move as an irregular process that could be a setback for the reform agenda. “The U.S. Embassy regrets the actions of the President and Lower House of Parliament to withdraw confidence in Prime Minister Ali Hassan Khaire and his government, which heightened political tensions and undermined the ongoing process of dialogue and negotiation between the Federal Government of Somalia, Federal Member States, and other key stakeholders,” the statement reads in part. 

The Somali Cabinet has urged the international community to respect Somalia’s sovereignty following the ouster of Prime Minister Hassan Khaire. The Minister of Information, Mohamed Abdi Hayir, said that the international community should behave more diplomatically, adding that the Cabinet “must protect the country’s sovereignty and the decisions of the constitutional institutions.”

The Somali Foreign Affairs Minister, Ambassador Ahmed Isse Awad assured the international partners and all other Somali stakeholders that Somalia is fully committed to holding all-inclusive polls in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary election. In the monthly briefing with the diplomatic corps, the Minister conveyed “President’s commitment to political stability, inclusivity, and consensus-building. And I thanked our partners for their unyielding support.” Following the ousting of Prime Minister Hassan Khaire, the international community voiced their concerns about the abrupt dismissal of the leader.

Following weeks of uncertainty after the ousting of Prime Minister Hassan Khaire, many political parties and clans have voiced their concern. The latest communique comes after the Mudolood conference, a summit that called representatives of the Mudolood clan including the two former presidents and current regional President. The communique said in part, “The Mudulood clan calls on the Federal Government to ensure the 2020/21 national elections are based on consensus and are held on time. The clan warns against a term extension for the government that may plunge the country into a political and constitutional crisis.” 

The clan conference also addressed the al-Shabaab menace in the country. They vowed to purge extremist groups from their historical land, adding that the FGS and AMISOM should support their efforts.   

Somali President, Abdullahi “Farmaajo” met with three out of the five regional presidents to finalise the electoral model for the upcoming 2020/21 election.  Before the meeting took place, the President of Puntland, Said Deni, who boycotted the previous meeting, placed conditions for his participation in the conference. He told President Farmaajo of Somalia that he needs to name a new Prime Minister, he should not suggest the extension of his term limit, categorically ruling out a universal vote. Since his demands were not met, he did not attend. Jubaland president, a strong ally of Puntland President Deni, did not attend the meeting either. 

The Dhusamareb Conference III agreement stated; 1) the election will be facilitated by the National Independent Electoral Commission (NEIC), 2) four electoral constituencies to be designated in every regional state, which the election shall take place, 3) elections to happen at the same time across the country, 4) elections be held on a multi-party system, 5) members of the Upper House be elected by the regional state M.P.s, 6) 30% quota on women in Parliament to be protected, among other matters. 

A day after the conclusion of the Dhusamareb conference III, Presidents of Jubaland and Puntland issued a statement noting that the conclusion of the conference is between the three present regional presidents and the Somali President.

The International Community in Somalia has welcomed the results of the Dhusamareb III conference, though saddened by the lack of participation by Jubaland and Puntland presidents. James Swan, the U.N. Envoy to Somalia, said “it is disappointing that they declined to participate despite repeated appeals from the Somali political leaders and international partners. We understand that there are strongly held divergent views among the leaders and political tension are high in the pre-electoral period. Yet, it is precisely during such moments that it is most necessary for the nation’s leaders to engage in dialogue and present their best ideas to find solutions in the interest of the Somali people.”

Prior to the conference, the U.S. called for comprehensive consultation and consensus across Somalia’s political spectrum on the electoral model. After the conclusion of the meeting, the U.S. criticised the absence of Puntland and Jubaland, adding “spoilers without participation sacrifice democracy for their own ambitions. Parties will need to move forward with the timely model agreed.” 

The main opposition party coalition, Forum for National Parties (NFP), welcomed the consensus reached in Dhusamareb III regarding the electoral process and considers the outcome as a step in the right direction. The coalition calls for the Puntland and Jubaland presidents to participate in future talks as it makes the process more inclusive. They call on the next meeting to be inclusive of other stakeholders, i.e. opposition parties and civil society.

The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) issued a letter ordering the Director of CARE International – Somalia, Iman Abdullahi, to leave the country with immediate effect. The Minister of Education, Abdullahi Godah Barre, accused the Abdullahi of meddling in the country’s internal politics, specifically undermining the development of the country’s education sector.

The President of the self-declared independent state of Somaliland, Muse Bihi, urged the National Electoral Commission (NEC) to accelerate efforts towards holding the upcoming regional and national elections on time. The elections are supposed to take place in May 2020 – nine months –  as agreed upon with the leaders of the main opposition parties

  • Somalia’s Ambassador to the UN, Abukar Dahir Osman Baale, issued a communique calling for a review of U.N. Mission in Somalia’s (UNSOM) mandate. Though he praised the U.N.’s efforts in promoting peace and stability in Somalia, he insisted that the developmental and reconstruction efforts in the country “must be Somali-driven, and must be as Somali-driven.” He cautioned the U.N., as well as other international community members, against interfering with Somali affairs, especially the upcoming election.

The issue of interference with Somali internal politics is an accusation that has been in Somali political space for decades. In the case of the U.N., the former U.N. Envoy to Somalia, Nicholas Haysom, was expelled from the country after he shared his dislike for Somalia’s decision to arrest former Al-Shabaab leader and aspiring candidate for the 2018 South West election, Mukhtar Robow.

Galmudug State Information Minister, Ahmed Abdi Falagle spoke out against the recent clan clashes that have plagued the state. The clan clashes, the recent one between Hananbuure and Qalanqaale areas, have resulted in many deaths and injuries. The fighting has also led to many families to be displaced. He urged community leaders to lead in the reconciliation process between rival militias. He also appealed to Cabinet members from making comments about the clashes, as it is the work of the Ministry to make official statements on ongoing issues in the state.

Ousted Prime Minister, Hassan Ali Khaire, declares his candidacy for the upcoming presidential election. Former PM Khaire was ousted from power in July when the majority of the Parliament voted for his removal, a move that shocked the international community. The move was condemned by international partners who saw the ouster of the Prime Minister as a step backwards which could create more issues for Somalia.

During the National Consultative Forum (NCF), which took place between 14 – 18 September, Somali president Abdullahi “Farmaajo” met with regional presidents resulting in an agreement on the electoral model that the country will use during the 2020/21 parliamentary and presidential elections. Key points of the agreement include, 1) Election period will begin 1 November, 2) to hold elections in two cities in the respective regional states, 3) traditional elders, civil society and regional states should jointly undertake the selection of delegates,  4) preserve the 30% women quota, 5) regional assemblies from all five regional states should elect members of the upper house of Parliament. 

Following the meeting, Puntland President, Said Deni, urged the Parliament to approve the NCF agreement. He added that the agreement was “the fruit of lengthy Somali-led discussions based on a satisfactory process that would not favour any group.

Somali opposition parties issued separate statements welcoming the successful conclusion of the NCF. They called for speedy implementation of the agreement. 

Somaliland, a territory that Somalia claims to be part of the country but the inhabitants declared independence in 1991, rejected the outcome of the NFC. In regards to Somaliland, the NFC agreed that the Upper House members representing Somaliland should be elected by joint delegates representing the regions.  Somaliland Foreign Affairs Ministry issued a statement notifying the international partners that the upcoming national polls have nothing to do with the self-declared independent state. Somaliland is expected to undergo their own electoral process, which has been postponed for the last two years. 

Some of the members of the international community in Somalia signed onto a statement where they acknowledged the conclusion of the NFC. Though the agreement fell short of the longstanding Somali goal of direct voting for members of Parliament, they commend the Somali President and regional leaders on the decision. The international community urged that the 2020/21 electoral process be free, fair, transparent, and inclusive

All 215 federal M.P.s have unanimously ratified the appointment of Mohamed Hussein Roble as the new Prime Minister in a special sitting. The new PM vowed to immediately work on preparing for the 202/21 parliamentary and presidential elections. All 215 federal M.P.s have unanimously ratified the appointment of Mohamed Hussein Roble as the new Prime Minister in a special sitting. The new PM vowed to immediately work on preparing for the 202/21 parliamentary and presidential elections.

Following the confirmation and assumption of office, new Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has been busy meeting with key Somali stakeholders. The PM met with the Presidents of HirShabelle and Jubaland regional governments where they discussed prioritising political issues and ensuring a fair and transparent electoral process. A similar meeting discussing the same topic was held between PM Roble and several M.P.s, Speaker of the Lower House and First Deputy Speaker.     

The PM also met with officials from the Banadir Regional Administration (Mogadishu and its environs) about bolstering security in the capital as the election period nears. As with the previous election period, the extremist group, Al-Shabaab, increases the number of attacks in an attempt to stop the election. Previously, the group has managed to kill presidential candidates, members of Parliament (M.P.s) and delegates who elect the M.P.s

The new Prime Minister, Mohamed Hussein Roble, held meetings with the various international communities and key stakeholders upon assuming his role. He met with the head of United Nations Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), James Swan, and Head of African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Francisco Madeira, EU Ambassador to Somalia, Nicolas Berlanga, among other representatives. In this meeting, the PM briefed the international community on the possible ways the various agencies would partner with the country to achieve its national priorities. 

The PM met with the U.S. Ambassador to Somalia, Donald Yamamoto and other U.S. embassy officials. They discussed the current political situation, and  implementation of the electoral model.

President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo” chaired a meeting with all the regional presidents, except Somaliland, and the Mayor of Mogadishu to discuss the formation of federal and state-level electoral commissions. The meeting also discussed the appointment of a dispute resolution committee, and the timetable for the electoral process.  

 

The consultative meetings in Dhusamareb in September bore fruit as the country has issued the parliamentary and presidential election schedule.  The timetable notes that the process will officially begin on 10 October, with two federal and state election commissions to be appointed by 20 October. Between 20 – 31 October, the appointed members of the election commissions would be trained while 1 – 30 November will see the selection of electoral delegates as well as organising of poll stations around the country.  The Upper House of Parliament election will take place between 1-10 December while the Lower House would be on 10 -27 December. The election for the leadership of Parliament, i.e. the Speakers and the Presidency, would take place 1 – 8 January 2021. 

Optimistic from the concluded election consultative meetings in Dhusamareb, Galmudug state, regional president of Puntland, Said Deni, noted: “concerns over election delay is over.” The president said those words during a press conference at the Mogadishu airport as he headed to Nairobi to meet other opposition group leaders 

Both local and international stakeholders deem the Dhusamareb consultative meeting in September as a turning point to solve the electoral impasse between the regional states and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS).

In an attempt to disrupt and infiltrate the Somali political system, the extremist group Al-Shabaab has intensified the process of appointing elders in various towns in South and Central Somalia. Somalia cannot conduct one man, one vote, therefore, the country relies on the indirect system of voting, which requires elders to be delegates to vote for the House of Representatives (HoR). HoR, in the Somali context, is represented by clan elders. 

Al-Shabaab would like to have some elders who are part of the group or sympathetic to the messages of the group so they can influence national and regional policies. 

The National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC) of Somalia issued certificates of registration to six more political parties.  The six parties include; 1) Peace and Justice party, 2) Justice and Reconciliation party, 3) Republican party, 4) Green party of Somalia, 5) PEace and Unity party, and 6) Qaransoor party.  

Interestingly, the Peace and Justice party is led by the incarcerated former Al-Shabaab deputy leader, Mukhtar Robo ‘Abu Mansur.’ Robow has been on house arrest since 2018, when he was arrested while he ran for the regional president of South West state. The former leader of Al-Shabaab defected to government forces in 2017 but is believed to have disengaged from the group since 2012. His arrest during elections is controversial since he was seen as the likely winner of the elections. Former head of the UN Mission of Somalia questioned the decision to arrest Robow which led to him being kicked out of Somalia and declared persona non grata. 

The registration of new political parties is a sign that the country seems optimistic about the future of the elections scheduled to take place between December 2020 to February 2021. 

In an attempt to foster cooperation between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the federal Member States (FMS), the international community travelled to Baidoa, the capital city of South West regional state. While meeting regional president Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed “Laftagareen”, the delegation encouraged the revitalisation of dialogue between the FGS and FMS. 

The delegation included the head of UN Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), James Swan, head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Ambassador Francisco Madeira, EU deputy head of delegation to Somalia, Nicole Miller, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Head of Mission, Jamal Ahmed Ibrahim. 

The United Nations (UN) and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) signed a new cooperation framework named the UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework (UNCF). The agreement details how the two parties will work together to achieve peace, stability, and prosperity over the next five years.  The UNCF outlines how the UN intends to support government-owned and government-led priorities, including those that are part of Somalia’s ninth National Development Plan (NDP-9) – politics and reconciliation; security and the rule of law; economic development; and social development.

Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble urged the regional states to submit their nominations to the joint electoral commission. In a letter, PM Roble told the regional presidents that the deadline for submission had already passed, but he has extended the deadline until 20 October. 

The Prime Minister, Mohamed Hussein Roble, announced the members of the new Cabinet. Many of the former Cabinet members retained their positions.

With the regional and federal government at loggerheads, the Somali international community has been making rounds to all regional states to help the two sides come together and find a solution to the electoral impasse. This week, the international community delegation travelled to Galmudug state where they met with the regional president, Ahmed Abdi KAriye ‘QoorQoor”.  The international community stressed the importance of dialogue between the federal member states (FMS) and the federal government of Somalia (FGS). 

The delegation included the head of UN Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), James Swan, head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Ambassador Francisco Madeira, EU deputy head of delegation to Somalia, Nicole Miller, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Head of Mission, Jamal Ahmed Ibrahim. 

Somaliland president, Muse Bihi, defended his administration’s decision to suspend all UN activities within the region announced earlier during the week. In a speech, he said that the UN would not be allowed to implement “what was dictated by Somalia [Villa Somalia].” 

Somaliland suspended activities by the UN due to a recent agreement between the UN and Somalia’s government which refers to Somaliland as a regional state part of Somalia. Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but is yet to gain any recognition from the international community. Despite the case, the country enjoys bilateral agreements with regional and European countries. 

Continuing with the stalemate, Jubaland has refused to follow suit with other regional states and nominate members to the indirect elections committee. The regional president of Jubaland, Ahmed Mohamed Islam ‘Madobe’, cites the federal government’s decision not to withdraw troops from the Gedo region, one of the three regions part of the Jubaland administration, as the reason for the delay. 

Federal troops stationed in the Gedo region is among the contentious elements contributing to the stalemate between the regional and federal governments.  Jubaland insists that the federal government should withdraw all troops from the region if the electoral process is to continue, a move that the government is unwilling to budge on.

As Somalia prepares for the parliamentary and presidential elections, the regional state, HirShabelle, submits the names of eight names to represent the state on the National electoral body.  The eight individuals include three females. 

Earlier in the year, the country agreed that Somalia could not hold one man, one vote for the upcoming elections. As a result, the country agreed to modify the indirect elections. The eight members submitted by HirShabelle state will oversee the elections of the Upper and Lower houses of parliament. In the indirect system, the state is allocated 38 seats in both houses of parliament

The HirShabelle State President, Mohamed Abdi Ware, publicly announced his resignation as regional leader. In a statement, “Pursuant to Article 52 of the HirShabelle Provisional Constitution, I have resigned as President of HirShabelle State, a federal Member State of the Federal Government of Somalia. I wish the people of HirShabelle and Somalia success and prosperity.” He asserted that the current process to elect the parliament and president could lead to political instability. He suggested that the HirShabelle elections be postponed by a month after the federal elections scheduled to take place between October 2020 and January 2021.

To get the electoral process underway, each regional state is expected to appoint members to a state electoral committee that will oversee and manage the electoral process in the upcoming election.  Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble appointed the members of the Northern Election Commission, which is synonymous with Somaliland. Though Somaliland operates as an independent country, based on the transitional constitution, Somaliland MPs are part of the electoral process. The committee has 11 members, including five women. 

Galmudug regional president Ahmed Kariye “QoorQoor” issued a presidential decree with his nomination of the eight-member state Electoral committee, which included two women.  In South West State, President Abdiaziz “Lafta

Ali Gudlawe is the new HirShabelle State President-elect. He beat one candidate vying for the same position. Yusuf Ahmed Hagar will serve as his deputy. Like many local elections in Somalia, allegations of manipulation of the electoral process were voiced by local observers and opposition groups. 

Immediately after his election, Somali president Abduallahi Farmaajo issued a congratulatory message to HirShabelle, President-elect Ali Gudlawe Hussein and his deputy, Yusuf Ahmed Hagar. 

The international community issued a statement welcoming the newly elected HirShabelle President, Ali Gudlawe. We look forward to working with the new HirShabelle President Ali Gudlawe in advancing reconciliation, bringing together all HirShabelle clans and communities, combating violent extremism and addressing HirShabelle’s state-building and socio-economic priorities.”

A week after the election, The newly elected president held a telephone conversation with the US Ambassador to Somalia, Donald Yamamoto, where they discussed reconciliation, security and the upcoming federal electoral process. 

Somali President Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmaajo” signed into Law the Indirect Election Agreement that had been endorsed by both houses of parliament on 26 September 2020.  “We are heading for an election. Since October 1 of this year, when we signed the agreement with the heads of state and government on the Electoral Procedures Agreement, we have taken steps at the federal level to hold the elections and implement all provisions of the Political Agreement on the directions for the federal Parliamentary Elections,” he stated

HirShabelle Regional Assembly Deputy Speaker, Mahad Hassan Osman, stated that there is ongoing deliberation on the possibility of extending the term limit of the administration by one year. According to the Deputy Speaker, the move is to distance the state election from the national election, which currently falls around the same period. 

The international community in Somalia issued a statement calling for broad and inclusive consensus on the matter of election committee impasse. They urged the leaders to adhere to the agreements from the September Dhusamareb meetings. The statement added, “We particularly emphasise that achieving broad consensus on the establishment of the electoral management committees, which should include 30 percent representation of women, and on resolving differences on how the federal vote will be conducted in the Gedo region and for the seats allocated to the Somaliland communities, will be critical to the transparency, legitimacy, feasibility and timely implementation of the electoral process.” 

Prime Minister Roble delivered an address to the UN Security Council (UNSC) on wide-ranging issues affecting Somalia. He affirmed the government’s commitment to upholding the 30% women’s quota in parliament. He assured the UNSC that the federal government is making progress when it comes to the electoral process. The day before the address, the deputy prime minister had opened the training of the electoral commission. On economic issues, the PM noted that the government has been implementing reforms to increase the country’s revenue.

The opposition presidential candidates issued a communique calling for the disbandment of the electoral committee. The communique, which was issued after the conclusion of a 6-day meeting amongst the 14 member union, stated that the federal and state electoral committees were not created in accordance with the agreed conditions. The union of opposition candidates also called for the withdrawal of all federal troops from Gedo region, which is part of Jubaland State. Finally, the communique called for the 30% women quota in parliament to be upheld in the upcoming election.  The union had published a letter four days earlier stating similar concern about some of the members of the electoral commission. In that letter, they urged the federal government and the federal member states of HirShabelle, Galmudug and Southwest to remove from the state and federal electoral committee “…members that have not met the set conditions, including the need to bar individuals attached to the security institutions, civil servants and those who have publicly come out in support of the incumbent president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed ‘Farmajo’,

The President of Puntland commented on the communique saying that he disagreed with the council. He stated that he does not think that the state and federal electoral committees should be disbanded.

Prime Minister Roble dismissed the accusations from the opposition union. He affirmed that the process and the electoral commission is in accordance with the agreed upon resolutions from the Dhusamareb and Mogadishu meetings. He added that he would engage with the opposition to discuss their concerns about some of the federal electoral committee members.

At a press conference after returning from Nairobi, Jubaland regional president Madobe states that the upcoming election cannot take place without key issues being resolved. According to him, the Jubaland administration Governor needs to be reinstated in Gedo region. Currently, government forces have been handling the security issues around the regional capital of Gedo region, Garbahaarey.  He added, “Those with responsibilities for the election, including the president and the like, should differentiate the election guidelines and the political campaign.” He accused the federal government of destabilising the region by deploying troops and appointing parallel new administrations for six of the seven districts in Gedo region.

President Deni of Puntland regional state welcomed the international community delegation.  Like with previous meetings, the international community urged all Somali leaders to remain steadfast in their commitment to collaborating with each other. Following the close door meeting, the regional president, Said Deni, held a press conference where he stated that the meeting was productive and acknowledged that significant steps had been made in terms of creating an electoral committee to oversee the election process. 

The delegation included the Deputy Special Representative for Somalia, Raisedon Zenega, head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Ambassador Francisco Madeira, EU head of delegation to Somalia, Nicolas Berlanga and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Head of Mission, Jamal Ahmed Ibrahim. 

Somaliland announced the first phase of voter registration would begin in the country. The registration will take place in Adwal region, Gabiley, Baligubadle and Salahley. The last day of registration in those specified regions and districts is 2 December. The National Electoral Commission (SNEC) said that the priority and insurance of voting cards would be focused on previously unregistered voters and those about to reach voting age. 

Somaliland is expected to hold their local and presidential election on 31 May 2021. The process is different from that in Somalia. 

President of Somalia, Abdullahi Farmaajo, has asked regional states presidents to submit names to the electoral committee.  . “We are committed to fully implementing the election agreement while refraining from delays to the schedule of the election. Therefore, I call on the federal Member States that are yet to submit their lists to the election implementing committees to present the agreed requirements, hoping that they will make their appointments as soon as possible.” 

The parliamentary and presidential election has been delayed. The process was supposed to start at the beginning of October, but the differences about who should be members of the electoral commission have stalled the process.

The Speaker of the Lower House,  Mohammed Mursal Sheikh Abdirahman, announced a term extension for the current 10th parliament until their successors are elected and sworn in. He quoted the provisional federal constitution as the basis of his decision. Additionally, he stated the 9th parliament during Hassan Sheikh presidency also extended the term limit of the parliament and presidency as they finalised the election process. 

The decision comes as the federal government and the regional states are still at loggerheads about implementing the past agreements and the presence of federal troops in Gedo region. The parliament’s mandate expires on 27 December. 

Somalia has accused Kenya of mobilising and arming militias along the Kenya-Somalia border. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) alleges that the militias are expected to attack the town of Belet Hawo and Somali National Army (SNA) bases located in Somalia.  “The Federal Government of Somalia warns the Government of Kenya of its aggression and illegal actions in the Federal Republic of Somalia which can undermine the stability of the Horn of Africa region. It reiterates once again that the blatant interferences in the internal affairs of Somalia can potentially create instability as well as affect the security of the region. The Federal Government of Somalia will take all necessary steps to ensure political independence, territorial integrity, and the protection of the dignity and honour of the people of the Federal Republic of Somalia,” the statement read. 

The African Union calls for calm as the tension between Kenya and Somalia increases. The AU Commission Chairman, Moussa Faki Mahamat, urged both parties to return to open dialogue with a view to the resumption of relations. 

During an Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) summit, the president of Kenya and Somalia allegedly held a closed-door meeting in the company of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia and President Omar Gelleh of Djibouti. 

IGAD sent a fact-finding mission, led by Djibouti, to investigate the allegations from the Somali government. 

The federal election commission has postponed the Upper House election timetable upon Galmudug leader, Ahmed Abdi Kariye “QoorQoor,” request. The amended schedule earmarks  5 January 2021 as the deadline for the registration of candidates for the Upper House, while the senate election will run between 7 and 14 January 2021. 

The Somali Prime Minister, Mohammed Hussein Roble, met with the Chairperson of the opposition Wadajir party, Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, and the Upper House Speaker, Abdi Hashi,  separately, in an effort to find a solution to the electoral impasse. The PM received the Abdirahman Warsame at his office in Mogadishu, where they discussed the issues of Somaliland, Gedo region and the electoral impasse. The PM maintained his commitment to find a solution to the current political crisis. 

In the meeting with the Speaker of the Upper House of Parliament, Abdi Hashi aimed to resolve the tension over the electoral committee for Somaliland region. Though Somaliland operates independently from Somalia, the provisional Constitution dictates that Somaliland must get a portion of parliamentary seats. For months, Speaker Hashi and PM Roble have been at loggerheads over who should be on the committee. The PM had created an electoral commission for Somaliland without the input of Speaker Hashi, which created further issues. The meeting resolved some of the issues, with the PM Roble allowing Speaker Hashi to replace four committee members.

The electoral impasse between the regional federal states and the federal government has led to another parliamentary elections delay. The amended timetable published on 29 December 2020 stated that the election would take place between 7 and 14 January. For the parliamentary election to take place, the delegates need to be appointed, which has not taken place.  President Farmaajo’s ally, president Ahmed Kariye of Galmudug state, told BBC Somali Service that the possibility of partial elections – without the participation of Jubaland and Puntland, who oppose Farmaajo’s presidency –  has been ruled out. 

President Farmaajo of Somalia has called for the Somali leaders to solve the electoral standoff so that the election takes place. He has been meeting with the presidents of the three regional states that are allied to him, Galmudug, HirShabelle and South West.

The delays are building pressure on Somalia as the presidential mandate ends in less than a month on 8 February. Despite Somalia facing many internal struggles, including humanitarian crises and the fight against al-Shabaab, the country has always had a peaceful transfer of power. Though the elections are usually delayed, the current impasse is taking the country to an unprecedented area.

The Federal Electoral Commission (FEC) issued a statement calling for the immediate end to the political impasse which has hampered the 2020/21 parliamentary and presidential election. The statement called for the implementation of the 17 September agreement.  The commission noted that they have already started training its members both at the federal and state level.  The FEC affirmed that they are already to hold free and fair election in Somalia. 

The FEC should not be confused with the National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC). Both institutions are technically in charge of the electoral process in Somalia. The FEC was created to specifically be in charge of the indirect elections that were supposed to take place from December 2020 but have not taken place. 

After months of delays, Jubaland and Puntland finally submit their nominations for the state-level electoral committee. The deadline for the submission of names was on 20 October 2020. The submission of the nominees could propel the electoral process as it allows Prime Minister Ahmed Roble to finalise the members of the Federal Electoral Commission (FEC). 

The United Nations Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) welcomed Jubaland and Puntland’s electoral commission announcement. The head of UNSOM, James Swan, noted that the announcement was a positive step in resolving the ongoing electoral deadlock.

The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the regional states kicked off consultative meetings in Dhusamareb, Galmudug State. The meetings are expected to solve the electoral deadlock as the presidential mandate comes to an end in 5 days. Somali information minister informed the press that the meeting discussed the implementation of the 17 September 2020 agreement. Puntland and Jubaland were adamant that the withdrawal of federal troops out of Gedo region should be a requirement for the impasse to be solved.  

By the end of the consultative meetings, the leaders agreed that the Upper House Speaker, Abdi Hashi and the Deputy Prime Minister Mahdi Gulaid would be in charge of the selection of Somaliland parliamentary seats.  The issues of Gedo region and the members of the electoral commission could not be resolved. 

In response to the news that the FGS and regional states, the British Ambassador to Somalia, Ben Fender, stated that the process in Dhusamareb should be to “unlock an election, not block one.” He urged the leaders to compromise so that the election can take place as soon as possible. 

The spokesperson of the Federal Government of Somalia stated that President Farmaajo will serve until election takes place. This comes just two days after the Presidential mandate officially ended. In an interview, the spokesperson said that the decision is based on the federal parliament’s resolution, which articulated that the president and lawmakers will remain in office until a new government is formed. 

The opposition council said that they do not recognise the presidency of Farmaajo now that his mandate is over.

Some opposition leaders and their supporters staged a peaceful anti-government protest in Mogadishu. The protests turned violent when militia loyal to the opposition and Somali National Army (SNA) troops, paramilitary police, and the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) members exchanged fire. The two sides had also exchanged fire the previous night. The tension escalated when a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) was fired, which landed in the green zone, also referred to Halane by the locals. it is unclear who fired the RPG  

Both the opposition and the federal government issued statements accusing the other side of escalating the matter. The interior ministry stated that government forces were responding to fire from armed militias who had attacked military posts the previous night. The incident that the government was referring to was the decision by the former defence Minister, Yusuf Siyad Indha-adde and his militia to occupy the Daljirka Dahsoon monument, which has been the historical location where opposition groups gather. According to the former defence minister, he sent his militia to defend the opposition from the military. 

The violent clashes were widely condemned by the international community, who issued a statement calling for calm. Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble expressed his deep sorrow over the clashes. He reiterated his willingness to work with all sides to ensure an inclusive and peaceful national electoral process takes place.

Puntland and Jubaland’s presidents set new conditions to attend the consultative meetings with the other regional states and the federal government of Somalia (FGS). The two leaders stated that the meetings should be held in the green zone, commonly referred to as Halane by the locals, citing safety and lack of trust of the FGS. They are also calling for the international community to attend the meetings as third party guarantors and signatories. 

Two days later, Jubaland issued a statement adding to the conditions to attend the consultative meetings. The pre-conditions included; 1) a formal apology from the current government for wrongful actions and harm it has done to the citizens and political stakeholders, 2) the federal government should hold a meeting with all political stakeholders, 3) the upcoming meeting should be held in a safe environment under the responsibility of the international community, 4) a guarantee that the outcomes of the meeting will be implemented, and 5) the current president, Abdullahi Farmaajo, whose mandate ended, should not play a role in the electoral process as a way to rebuild the confidence of all stakeholders.

With tension between the opposition and the federal government at all time high, presidents of Galmudug and HirShabelle have offered to mediate talks between the two sides. Galmudug president called the two main figures of the opposition council, former presidents Sheikh Sharif and Sheikh Mohamud, and the ousted Prime Minister, Hassan Ali Khaire.  Separately, the president of HirShabelle, Ali Gudlaw, held a closed-door meeting with former president Sheikh Mohamud at his Mogadishu home.

President Said Deni of Puntland state seems to reject the electoral model agreement that has widely been accepted as the basis of the upcoming election. While speaking at an event in his regional state, the President stated that the electoral model agreement, commonly referred to as the 17 September agreement, has contributed to instability.

James Swan, the head of the UN Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), and Mohamed Abdirizak Mohamud, the Foreign Affairs minister, briefed the UN Security Council. James Swan expressed the concern by the international community over the 19 February clashes. He warned that the political tension threatens “Somalia’s state-building progress and even security.” The UNSOM head briefed the council that the meetings between the federal government and regional states have not bore fruit even though both sides and the parliament have agreed on an electoral model. He stressed the international community’s appeals that they will not support any parallel election or processes or unilateral actions by Somali leaders. 

The Foreign Affairs Minister told the Council that the federal government has made considerable efforts and has made concessions to bring all stakeholders to the negotiation table to find a solution to the electoral impasse.  Addressing the 19 February clashes, the Minister said that although the government recognises the opposition’s right to peaceful protest, they had not followed the government’s measures. He denounced the  former Defence minister’s actions, whose militia had taken over a local square and had uttered that“ there is no government and we are taking control.”

Somaliland National Electoral Commission (NEC) met with representatives of the international community.  The delegation was briefed on the ongoing process to ensure that the election takes place as scheduled on 31 May 2021. 

The delegation included diplomats from the UN, UK, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway and European Union. 

A meeting attended by Prime Minister Mohamed Roble and representatives from the opposition union reached a peaceful accord. The presidents of Galmudug and HirShabelle states and the Governor of Mogadishu attended the meeting. They agreed that; 1) an independent six-member committee will be created to investigate what transpired at the 19 February clashes, 2) the government will guarantee that all citizens have the constitutional right to protest, 3) the opposition would postpone their scheduled protest on 26 February, 4) the government and opposition will work together regarding the hold of future peaceful demonstration, and 5) both sides restate their commitment to future discussion on the political and election issues. 

  • President Muse Bihi of Somaliland announced that the government would partially pay for women and minority candidates’ election expenses in the upcoming election. The decree from the government does not specify how much they are willing to cater for each candidate. 
  • This move allows broader participation in the electoral system since women and minority candidates would otherwise be unable to pay the large deposits required to participate in elections. 

The meeting between Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, the president of Somalia, and the regional presidents to resolve the electoral impasse has been postponed. The meeting aimed to discuss the recommendations from the Technical Committee held in Baidoa on 15 -16 February. The meeting was postponed due to the Jubaland and Puntland presidents’ refusal to travel to Mogadishu, citing security. 

The meeting was initially supposed to take place on 18 -19 February but was postponed due to the clashes between the opposition supporters/militias and security forces. Since then, Prime Minister Hussein Roble has been meeting with various  stakeholders, including a virtual meeting with the international community.

Before the next meeting between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and regional states commences in Mogadishu, Jubaland and Puntland presidents, Madobe and Deni, respectively, met with the local and regional political stakeholders independently and together. 

The Jubaland President met with Djibouti Ambassador to Somalia, Adan Hassan Adan, independently, where they discussed the election. Djibouti has played a mediator role in Somali internal conflicts since the fall of the Said Barre regime in January 1991. They are also a troop-contributing country to African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM). 

The Jubaland president also held meetings with US Ambassador to Somalia, Donald Yamamoto, and UK Ambassador Ms Kate Foster separately. The Puntland president was unable to attend the meeting as he had not arrived in Mogadishu. Upon arrival, he held meetings with the US ambassador and UN and AMISOM envoys to Somalia.  With the AMISOM envoy, they discussed the security of the upcoming consultative meeting. One of the requirements of both Jubaland and Puntland to attend the consultative meeting was that AMISOM would be in charge of the security. 

The meeting between Jubaland and Puntland presidents with the opposition council took place in Mogadishu. Like with other meetings, they discussed the election, the security concerns and the 19 February clashes. 

Meetings over the past one week between Jubaland and Puntland Presidents and opposition candidates resulted in the creation of a new alliance dubbed The National Salvation Council. The opposition candidates, known as the Council of the Presidential Candidates, and the regional presidents aim to add pressure on the Somali government to hold the national election. The alliance believes that the main obstacle to the delays of the election is Somali President Farmaajo.

The US Secretary of State for the Biden Administration, Anthony Bilken, called for immediate elections in Somalia. In a tweet, he said, “We are deeply concerned by the electoral impasse in Somalia. Somalia’s leaders need to hold [an] election immediately. Continued uncertainty undermines security, stability and prosperity. Set aside narrow political objectives, uphold their responsibilities to the people of Somalia.”

After more than a month of delays, the meeting between the regional presidents and the Somali government takes place in Mogadishu. The regional presidents of HirShabelle, Galmudug and South West State, who had been meeting with other local and international stakeholders, arrived at the Asfisyone Tent, where they joined the President and Mayor of Mogadishu.  

Jubaland and Puntland presidents did not attend the meeting. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) sent envoys to persuade the leaders to attend the meeting.  Though the leaders did not attend the meeting with President Farmaajo of Somalia, the presidents attended another meeting with the regional presidents. The regional presidents also met with representatives of the international community, who also attempted to persuade Jubaland and Puntland to attend the subsequent meeting with the Somali president.  

Puntland and Jubaland presidents have agreed to attend the meeting between Somali and regional presidents.  For the past four days, regional presidents and the international community have been meeting with the presidents of Jubaland and Puntland to persuade them to attend the consultative meeting. 

Despite attending the meeting, no consensus could be reached. Jubaland and Puntland are unwilling to concede on their demand that members of the newly formed alliance, the National Salvation Council, should be allowed to attend the meeting. The two leaders also maintained that since the presidential term of Farmaajo ended on 8 February, there is no executive role in the proceedings. On a positive note, the parties agreed that the security responsibility is handed over to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops. 

Another round of talks between the Somali government and the regional governments failed. TIn an allegedly pre-recorded message, the Somali Information Minister, Osman Dubbe, told the public that the talks failed due to Puntland and Jubaland regional presidents reluctant to compromise. “The Federal government of Somalia is making clear to Somali people that the leaders of Somalia’s regional States Puntland and Jubaland are not willing to hold elections in this country based on the Sept. 17th agreement and the Feb. 16th agreement,” the Minister said in part.

In a shocking move, the Lower House of Parliament extends the term limit of President Farmaajo by another two years. The Speaker of the Lower House, Mohamed Mursal Sheikh, announced that 149 lawmakers voted for the extension while one rejected and three abstained.  Following the vote, President Farmaajo took to Twitter to celebrate, adding that they “urge the citizens to seize the historic chance to choose their destiny as the House of the People voted to return the elections mandate to the people.” However, the move by the Lower House has created uncertainty in Somalia, with many fear that it will lead to violence.  

Legal scholars, along with the opposition, have questioned the legality of the move by the Lower House of Parliament. Somalia has been using its transitional constitution, which was supposed to be amended before the 2020/21 election. In terms of the election, the constitution has contradictory statements on how the parliament could operate. In one section, the Constitution says that the Lower House can enact a Bill without the consent of the Upper house, while another section states that both houses must vote.  The contradictory nature of the Constitution has led to a constitutional crisis, with the opposition claiming that the country is turning into an autocratic or authoritarian state. 

The move by the Lower House, which President Farmaajo later ratified, was denounced by the international community. They urged the Somali president to reverse the Law so that opposition could return to the table. Like with previous statements, they urged the President to return to the 17 September Agreement. 

President Farmaajo’s legal term ended on 8 February but has been in talks with the regional states to agree on how the election should take place. The opposition says that they do not recognise the actions of Farmaajo since he does not have any constitutional basis to his mandate. To operate under the unprecedented terms, both houses of parliament voted to be operational until the election takes place so that a political void is not created.

Gunshots were heard in Mogadishu as the city’s police chief Saadaq Omar Hassan was fired for opposing a move by President Mohamed to have his term extended. It is believed this rift in the country’s security services could create a vacuum that Al Shabaab could exploit. This also comes in the context of militants having killed the district commissioner, Mohamed Abdi Hayle, on the outskirts of Mogadishu. 

Tensions in Mogadishu are at an all time high as troops supporting President Farmaajo or the opposition clashes in several neighbourhoods in Mogadishu. Witness reports say that heavy weapons are being used while unknown individuals have fired mortar rounds into Vila Somalia, which houses the presidential palace and other government housing. Other reports say that each side has placed roadblocks and other obstructions to stop the opposing side from entering their secured neighbourhoods. Videos also show troops entering opposition neighbourhoods on vehicles mounted with machine guns.  Tension rose further when troops stationed in Middle Shabelle abandoned their posts and travelled to Mogadishu to support the opposition.

Two opposition leaders have accused the government troops of attacking their residence.  The former president of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, took to social media to claim that troops have fired into his residence and the troops have created a roadblock outside his house. The Somali government was quick to respond to the claims by the former president, saying that allegations are not true and that the government is the one providing security to the former president.  The leader of the Wadajir political party also made similar claims. 

In response to the fighting, the Somali Security Minister, Hassan Hundebey Jimale, accused unnamed foreign countries of supporting the violence. In a televised statement, he said that organised militias had been sent to the capital to create chaos. Previously, the Farmaajo government has accused Kenya and Djibouti of aiding and abetting fugitives and supporting militias, both militarily and financially,  in Somalia.

The International Community (IC) has called on all sides to exercise maximum restraint. We have repeatedly warned that the extension of mandates would lead to a political crisis and undermine peace, stability and security in Somalia”, the statement read in part. The IC condemned the government and the opposition for the use of the security forces to pursue political objectives. 

The Prime Minister and regional governments of HirShabelle, Galmudug and South West have joined previous condemnation by Jubaland and Puntland over the extension of President Farmaajo’s presidency by two years by the Lower House of Parliament. Prime Minister Hussien Roble took out a statement denouncing the extension of President Farmaajo’s presidency. He welcomed the two statements by the South West state and HirShabelle and Galmudug, respectively. He called on all stakeholders to prepare for a national election and to refrain from any action that would jeopardise the efforts to hold an election at the earliest time. On the security front, the Prime Minister called on all security forces who abandoned their posts to fight in Mogadishu to return to their bases. 

The rejection of term extension by allies of the President comes as troops supporting the government or opposition clashed for days in Mogadishu. 

The international community and opposition leaders welcomed the news.

With all five regional states and the Prime Minister rejecting the presidential limits, President Farmaajo says he will no longer pursue a two-year extension of his presidential term. He asked the Speaker of the Lower House of Parliament to call for a vote to reverse the term extension. Succumbing to pressure, President Farmaajo stated that the 17 September agreement is the only viable path to dialogue. 

The Lower House of Parliament voted unanimously to cancel the two-year presidential extension. The international community welcomed the developments that called on the stakeholders to return to the negotiation table again to solve the electoral impasse. 

Somalia announced that it was restoring ties with Kenya six months after severing ties. Over that period, the federal government has maintained that Kenya has been aiding and abetting a fugitive, Abdirashid Hassan Janan, who surrendered to the government in late March, and financially and militarily supporting militants to create chaos in Somalia, all claims that the Kenyan government denies. 

The Kenyan government issued a statement saying that they have taken note of the Somali government announcement.  The statement further states that Kenya “looks forward to further normalisation of relations by the Somali authorities…including trade, communication, transport, people-to-people relations, and cultural exchanges.” 

Turkey and Qatar welcome the new development by Kenya and Somalia.  “We welcome the developments regarding the resuming of diplomatic relations between Somalia and Kenya. We appreciate the efforts of the State of Qatar in this process,” said the Turkish Foreign Ministry in a statement. Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, H E Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, tweeted: “We welcome the announcement of the resumption of relations between the Republic of Somalia and the Republic of Kenya, following unremitting Qatari diplomatic efforts to bring peace and stability between the two countries.” 

The business community in both countries welcomed the normalisation of relations as they are the worst affected by the severing of diplomatic relations. 

The Chairperson of the AU Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, announced the appointment of John Dramani Mahama, the former president of Ghana, as the High Representative to Somalia. He will work with Somali stakeholders to reach a mutually acceptable compromise in order to hold the elections in the shortest possible time. AMISOM will support him to ensure the mediation efforts go smoothly.  

The former fugitive, and former Jubaland Minister of Security, Abdirashid Janan, has set conditions for his militia to join the Somali National Army (SNA). Janan has asked the government to appoint members of his militia as district commissioner of Luuq, Dolow and Beled Hawo, as well as the position of National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) commanders and deputy commanders in those three districts. Local reports say that both the Somali government and NISA have rejected the proposal. As previously reported, Janan and his militia had been fighting against SNA after escaping from jail, where he was accused of human rights violations when he killed inmates. In an attempt to gain the upper hand in Jubaland, President Farmaajo withdrew the charges against Janan. Janan is very influential in the Gedo region, which would be beneficial to the Somali president and problematic for Jubaland President Madobe.

 

Somali Prime Minister, Hussein Roble, met with representatives of the international community before the upcoming National Consultative Forum (NCF). He reiterated his commitment to bring the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the federal Member States (FMS), which is the regional government, together so that a consensus on the electoral model could be agreed on. He assured the IC that the model would align with the 17 September 2020 and 16 February 2021 agreements.

Somalia’s prime minister has invited regional leaders for a new round of negotiations to resolve the feud over elections, leading to violence in the capital. Opposition forces still remain in the capital despite President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed backing away from a term extension and agreeing to hold fresh elections.  The President, better known as Farmajo, tasked his prime minister to reach out to the rivals and oversee negotiations.  “The prime minister expects the heads of the federal member states to accept his invitation and attend the conference scheduled for May 20,” the spokesman, Mohamed Ibrahim Moalimu, told reporters.

After a three-day delay, the National Consultative Forum (NCF) began with the attendance of all regional presidents and the Mayor of Mogadishu, who is also the Governor of the Banadir region. Prime Minister Roble is chairing the meeting, which was well received by the opposition, who did not attend the meeting, since they believed one of the issues with the previous meeting was that president Farmaajo chaired the meeting. President Farmaajo did not attend the meeting until the end, when the major issues were ironed out between the regional presidents.

The issue of representation of the northern regions became one of the contentious issues during the NCF. The Speaker of the Upper House, Abdi Hashi, is in charge of creating the list of names of the members to the electoral commission representing the northern regions. The resolution was created on the final day of the consultative meet

Protestors took to the streets to demand the immediate release of Sheikh Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansour, the former deputy Al-Shabaab leader, who has been under house arrest since 2018 December.  The protestors, which included politicians, military officials and traditional elders, who come from the Robow’s clan, said they would disrupt the upcoming indirect elections in Baidoa.

Robow was arrested when it became evident that he would win the presidential election in South West state in December 2018. The former al-Shabaab leader defected to government troops in 2017, but local reports indicate he had disengaged from the group since 2012. Robow objected to the increase in civilian casualties during attacks.

Somalia’s government has announced that delayed elections would be held within 60 days, following months of deadlock over the vote that erupted into violence in the troubled country.  “About the schedule of elections, the national consultative forum agreed that elections would be held within 60 days”, with the exact dates to be determined by the electoral board. Deputy information minister Abdirahman Yusuf announced on Thursday at the conclusion of talks. Somalia’s Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and regional state presidents signed an agreement to allow elections to take place after an impasse that had held them up for months, the state-run broadcaster said on Twitter.  

Renewed fighting between anti-Al-Shabaab militia, Ma’awisley, and the Somali National Army (SNA) has been reported in the outskirts of Jowhar. Locals say that the militia wants the SNA to release three of its members who had been arrested, and the military has refused to do so.

Ten days earlier, at least ten people, including nine soldiers, were killed in clashes between the two sides when the militia attempted to free its members from police custody once again.  To help quell the tensions, the government sent the Haram’ad parliamentary police to Jowhar.

In line with the recent agreement between the federal government and the regional governments and the opposition, Somali Prime Minister Hussein Roble appointed the members of the ministerial-level committee, which will be tasked with verifying complaints against members of the election committee.  During the historic talks, the presidents of Puntland and Jubaland, and the opposition council, complained that some of the electoral commission members are part of the national intelligence and security agency (NISA) and Farmaajo loyalists. The parties are expected to submit names to the committee to determine whether they will be part of the final electoral commission.

After years of delays and false promises, Somalilanders go to the polls to vote for the parliamentarians and local councillors. Most of the candidates belong to one of the major political parties, Kulmiye, the ruling party, Waddani, the main opposition party, and UCID. Some of the local councillors ran as independents.  Though the country has scheduled presidential elections, the vote for MPs and local councillors last took place in 2005.

While travelling in Mogadishu, Former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed’s convoy was fired upon by soldiers’ part of the prisons’ guard force.  The Minister of Justice, Abdiqadir Mohamed, and Commander of the Custodial Corps, General Mahad Adan, apologised on behalf of the government. In a press conference, the two government officials expressed their regret over the unfortunate incident, adding that it was an accident. They added that they had opened an investigation on the incident. 

The Prisons Guard Force commander disputed the government’s comments, saying that the incident took place only after troops part of the former president’s convoy opened fire after they were told to stop at a checkpoint. He claims the troops fired upon the convoy in self-defence.

President of Puntland, Said Abdullahi Deni, and Speaker of the Upper House, Abdi Hashi, have named the members of the State Indirect Implementation Team (SIET).  Puntland appointed Abdikarin Muuse Mohamud, Muse Abdulqadir Du’ale, Ahmed Abdi Mohamud, Aynanshe Yusuf Hussein, Aydarus Ahmed Farah, Abdirsaq Abdulle Farah and Anab Haji Saleban Warsame. Speaker Hashi named Suleiman Aydid Osman, Abdishakur Abib Hayir, Mohamed Ali Abdullahi and Jama Omar to represent the northern territories (Somaliland).

Puntland becomes the second federal Member State to appoint its members to the election committees. Jubaland appointed members to both the federal and state electoral commissions a day prior to Puntland. Siyad Mohamed Mursal, Abdiqadir Mohamud Dhaqane (Jaylani), Ahmed Abdi Nur, Samsam Farah Abukar, Mohamed Osman Gaab, Ibrahim Adan Ibrahim, Ahmed Yusuf Mohamed and Abkar Nur Abdi were named into the State committee, while Hawo Haji Mohamed Malindi and Abdi Hiis Udan.  

Following nearly two years’ delay, Jubaland officially has an approved Cabinet. At the end of May, Jubaland President, Ahmed Madobe, submitted names of the Cabinet members to the parliament. The Cabinet comprises 23 ministers, 22 deputy ministers and five state ministers.

Former opposition and self-declared president of Jubaland following the controversial 2019 Jubaland President elections, Abdinasir Serar Maah was appointed Minister of Education.

Preliminary election results in Somaliland show that opposition groups, Waddani and UCID, have a combined majority of the seats in the race for parliament. The results show that the ruling party, Kulmiye, got 30 seats, Waddani got 31 seats, and UCID got 21 seats. No women won a parliamentary seat in this election.

The Somali Prime Minister appointed ministerial-level committee has recommended removing 34 members from the electoral commission. The ministerial committee was tasked with verifying the alleged bias and affiliation of some electoral committee members to the federal government and security agencies.  The opposition council submitted a list of 67 names that they deemed compromised due to their connection to the government.

The removal of the 34 members was welcomed by most of the opposition members. They viewed the move as a sign of goodwill by the Prime Minister, who had assured them that he would ensure that the electoral commissions at the federal and state levels are fair.

The Somali Prime Minister appointed a new Somali Election Technical Committee (ETC).  The ETC is a seven-member elective technical committee formed by the Prime Minister tasked with facilitating the smooth implementation of the indirect election, including the coordination of the federal and state election commissions and financial management.

After months of rising tension over the past year, Kenya and Somalia have agreed to re-establish ties. Over the past year, both countries expelled the diplomatic corps, while Kenya closed its airspace to planes travelling to and from Somalia. The Somali government accused the Kenyan government of interfering with internal affairs and the harbouring of then fugitive Janan, the former security minister of Jubaland state, who has since then surrendered to the government.

One of the first steps to re-establish diplomatic ties was the resumption of flights to and from Somalia. The Kenyan government said, a “goodwill measure… made in the mutual interests of our two countries and in the hope that it will cause the full normalisation [of] bilateral relations between Kenya and Somalia including diplomatic, trade and people.”  The Somali government welcomed the move by the Kenyan government, adding that it was a “starting point to commence negotiation aimed at full normalisation of diplomatic relations” between the two countries. Days later, in a statement, the Kenyan Foreign Affairs Ministry said that the “resumption of full diplomatic relations would be a positive start to the commencement of bilateral discussions between the two nations.”

The restoration of diplomatic ties was welcomed by the business communities from both sides, who have been heavily affected by the severed ties. The miraa (Khat) trade has been at the centre of the dispute, with Somalia banning miraa from Kenya, who is their biggest source.

After public outcry, the Prime Minister has appointed a high-level government commission to inquire on the allegations that Somali troops are currently fighting in the Tigrayan conflict.  The federal Minister of Defence, Hassan Hussein Haji, the Minister of Interior, Federalism and Reconciliation, Mukhtar Hussein Afrah, and the Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), Brig. Gen. Odawa Yusuf Rageh is among those selected to lead the commission’s investigation into the –  A few days ago, a leaked document from the upcoming UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea claimed that a number of Somali troops are currently stationed near Axum, Tigray region in Ethiopia. The troops allegedly received training in Eritrea, as have other soldiers previously, but ended up fighting alongside the Eritrean troops in Axum. The leaked document led to another mass protest with family members asking about their sons’ whereabouts. Some of the parents claimed that they had no inclination that their sons were sent to Eritrea for training in the first place. The federal government categorically denied the reports that Somali troops were fighting in Ethiopia.    

Regional analysts have claimed that the Federal Minister of Defence and the Chief of the Defence forces make the committee compromised. They allege that the troops were taken to Ethiopia, via Eritrea, under the instructions of the Defence chief, Brig Gen Rageh and President Farmaajo. The deployment of the troops was part of a larger plan formed by the Ethiopian, Eritrean and Somali presidents, an alliance known as the tripartite alliance. Analysts have maintained that the tripartite alliance is a destabilising factor in the Horn of Africa as it pushes the countries away from a federalist system to an authoritarian system of governance. Additionally, the alliance allows Eretria to influence the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) without being a member by using Ethiopia and Somalia

Ambassador James Swan, the UN envoy to Somalia, met with Hussein Roble, the Somali prime minister, to discuss the agreed-upon election agreement. The members of the newly appointed Somali Election Technical Committee (ETC) were also present at the meeting. The Prime Minister and the ETC briefed Amb Swan on the recent progress, including the submission by the regional state of names of individuals they believed should be removed from the Federal and State election committee.  

The newly appointed Somali Electoral Technical Committee (ETC) met with the United Nations Integrated Election Group (UN-IEG) to discuss the coordination and unification of activities in support of Prime Minister Roble’s effort to hold elections in the agreed-upon 60 days. The UN IEG affirmed its continued support to the Prime Minister and the ETC.

The ETC is a seven-member elective technical committee formed by the Prime Minister tasked with facilitating the smooth implementation of the indirect election, including the coordination of the federal and state election commissions and financial management.

The opposition groups, Waddani and UCD, formally agreed on a power-sharing agreement to control the legislature and local council after winning the majority of the seats in the recent election, at the expense of the ruling Kulmiye party. As part of the agreement, the Waddani party will be given the post of Speaker of the Somaliland Parliament and Mayor of Hargeisa, while UCID will have Deputy Speaker of the Parliament, Deputy Mayor of Hargeisa, and Mayor and Deputy of the Burao local councils. The t

US Ambassador to Somalia, Donald Yamamoto, met with Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and Galmudug and Hirshabelle presidents, Ahmed Abdi Kariye “QoorQoor” and Ali Abdullahi Hussein Gudlawe, respectively. The respective sides discussed strengthening the ties between Mogadishu and Washington, which had reportedly been tense over the past few months due to the election impasse. The reports indicated that the US was among the first countries to suggest a possible temporary stop to aid money if the Somali president, Abdullahi Farmaajo, had refused to return to the 17 September agreement and end the controversial 2-year term extension. The talks also focused on the security posed to Al-Shabaab. The US remains the biggest aid donor to Somalia.

Following a year of tension that led to the severance of ties between the two countries, Somalia and Kenya have agreed to reopen diplomatic missions. In a statement, the Somali Ministry of Foreign affairs said, “The resumption of full diplomatic relations will be a positive start to the commencement of bilateral discussions between the two nations.” Earlier in the month, Kenya opened its airspace to flights travelling to and fro Somalia after a three-month closure.

Days after the Somali Foreign affairs released its statement, their Kenyan counterpart released a statement saying, “Both ministers reconfirmed the need to expeditiously reopen their two missions of Kenya and Somalia, and emphasised the importance of normalising diplomatic relations between the two countries.” This comes after the foreign affairs minister had a telephone conversation about the normalisation of relations.

The Kenyan Ambassador, RTD General Lucan Tumbo, returned to Somalia with his counterpart returning to Nairobi the following week.

In line with the agreed upon benchmarks to ensure the election takes place as soon as possible, the Somali regional government began to submit their nominations to the Federal and State-level election commissions and dispute resolutions committee. So far, Galmudug, HirShabelle, Puntland, Jubaland and Somaliland caucus have submitted their names to the Office of the Prime Minister.

Based on the 27 May agreement, following complaints from some of the regional governments and opposition that the electoral commissions were compromised with allies of the current President and intelligence officers, prime minister Hussein Roble asked the regional presidents to resubmit the names to the election commission.

The President of HirShabelle, Ali Gudwale, announced that he would not be attending the meeting between regional presidents and prime minister Hussein Roble. The statement said that the President, who is in Turkey, did not specify why he is boycotting the meeting. Local reports indicate that he did not like that Prime Minister Roble did not invite him personally. Prime Minister Roble called President Gudwale and convinced him to attend the meeting through zoom.

Following a four-day meeting between Prime Minister Roble and the regional presidents, an election timetable was created, providing relief to Somalis on the way forward. Over the next four months, through indirect elections, Somalia should elect the members of both the lower and upper houses of parliament, Prime Minister and President. The presidential election should take place on 10 October.

Somalia’s international community welcomed the new development, adding that the election schedule shows the Somali public the government’s will to ensure the election takes place.

Prime Minister Roble travelled to Kismayo, the administrative capital of Jubaland state, to meet with various stakeholders to solve the Gedo dispute. The Gedo dispute is one of the contentious issues for the upcoming election where the pro-federal-government administration in Gedo region are at loggerheads with President Madobe. The Gedo politicians do not want President Madobe appointed officials to oversee the election in Garbaharey since they believe the election will be rigged in President Madobe’s favour. Additionally, to eliminate the risk of losing power in Jubaland, local reports say President Madobe would like the election to take place in one town, Kismayo, instead of two.

Therefore, Prime Minister Roble visited Kismayo and Garbaharey towns to solve the standoff between the two sides. While in Kismayo, PM Roble met with President Madobe and his Cabinet and security officials to discuss the Gedo issue and election security. He also travelled to Garbaharey to discuss similar issues with the regional administration. While in both towns, the Prime Minister urged the elders to play a key role In resolving regional conflicts.

The Gedo dispute resolution committee is expected to travel to both towns for a fact finding mission to understand how to solve the issue before the election takes place.    

Fawzia Yusuf Haji Adan has announced her candidacy for president of Somalia in the upcoming election, scheduled for 10 October this year. Fawzia Adan has held top government posts, including Foreign Affairs Minister and Deputy Prime Minister (November 2012-January 2014) during Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s presidency (2012-17). In an interview, Fawzia stated that she would prioritise security, economic empowerment and education if elected president. While addressing women in politics and Islam, she asserted that the religion does not stop women from entering. She added that women are making positive changes in majority Islamic countries like Pakistan and Indonesia. She added that Samia Suluhu, the president of Tanzania, should inspire other Muslim women.
Somali Prime Minister Roble, Mohamed Hussein Roble, has intervened to quell tension between the two factions formed within the Somaliland electoral committee. The committee is divided into two factions, one supporting Speaker of the House, Abdi Hashi, and the other faction supporting Deputy Prime Minister Mahdi Gulaid. Both factions have elected their own chairperson and deputy. In a tweet, the PM’s spokesperson stated “that his office is so committed to managing the elections in a transparent and impartial manner.’
In an audio message, Al-Shabaab issued threats to aspirants in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The audio message, purportedly recorded by the group leader, Ahmed Umar Abu Ubaidah, warned delegates who will partake in the election, saying that they should not make the same mistakes as their predecessors who believed that the elections are secret. The leader of al-Shabaab is alluding to local rumour mill allegations that those delegates who did not vote in Al-Shabaab’s favour were killed. 21 July 2021: UN delivers ballots to regional states as election nears

The UN Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) delivered ballots for the upcoming parliamentary elections in the regional states to Puntland and Jubaland. The members of each regional Electoral Implementation Committees received the electoral equipment and materials in Garowe and Kismayo. 

According to the timeline created by the Federal Electoral Commission (FEC), the upper house elections are scheduled to take place between 25-28 July following the creation of regional electoral committees and the nomination of candidates. However, four days to the deadline, no regional state has started the process. Regional analysts affirm that the elections will be delayed as many issues are still not resolved locally. Additionally, some regional presidents are on working visits outside the country while one regional assembly is on break until 1 August.

Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble urged regional leaders to start the electoral process for the election of the Upper House parliament members. The Federal Electoral Commission (FEC) scheduled the elections between 25-28 July. PM Roble urged the other regional states to follow the example of Jubaland, who had started the electoral process.
The fragmented process in Jubaland starts with the election of four out of the eight senators. Nine candidates, including one woman, are vying for the election of the four senatorial seats. Three out of the four nominees are ex-senators, including Fartaag and Iftin Baasto, who are seeking re-election. The four senators elected in Jubaland are: 1) Mr Ilyas Bedal Gabose, former governor of Lower Juba and close ally of President Madobe, 2) Abdullahi Sheikh Ismail Fartaag, an incumbent senator who hails from President Farmaajo’s clan, 3) Abdirizak Mohamed Osman, and 4) Iftin Hassan Iman Baasto. 

The Somaliland president, Muse Bihi, welcomed the newly elected Speaker of the House of Representatives, Abdirizak Khalif. Somaliland, an independent country but not intentionally recognised by any country, held a successful election on 31 May 2021 that led to the opposition taking over the House of Representatives. The new Speaker, Khalif, hailing from the main opposition party, Waddani, was welcomed to the presidential palace with this deputy.
Both Somali President Abdullahi Farmaajo and Prime Minister Roble release separate decrees contrary to one another over agreements with foreign countries following the announcement that the PM is travelling to Kenya. The presidential decree suspended all agreements between Somalia and foreign countries. “Until after the elections, all ministries and government agencies are prohibited from entering agreements or talks on behalf of the Federal Government of Somalia that affect the future, sovereignty, the land and the sea of our country,” the decree said in part. In response, the PM released a statement saying that all government agencies will continue to discharge their duties in accordance with the law. The statement further stated that the Prime Minister’s Cabinet has the mandate to enter any agreement or negotiation to strengthen Somalia’s relations with other countries. Regional president from Puntland, Said Deni, who is opposed to President Farmaajo, issued a statement condemning President Farmaajo’s decree and applauded PM Roble for standing up against the president. “The Government of Puntland commends Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble for leading the country in the transition period, for holding elections and for strengthening Somalia’s diplomatic relations with the world,” a statement from Puntland read in part.
Somali Prime minister Hussein Roble made his first official visit to Kenya since taking office in 2019 after receiving an official invitation from the Kenyan president. His visit aimed to fully restore diplomatic and business relations between Kenya and Somalia. PM Roble was welcomed by Kenya’s President, Uhuru Kenyatta, at the coastal city of Mombasa. In his address, President Kenyatta welcomed the new era of Kenya- Somali relations, underscoring the importance of regional stability. While in Kenya, PM Roble met with some of the members of the Somali business community in Mombasa and Nairobi, where they discussed improving trading relations. The meeting comes as Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Raychelle Omamo, travelled to Mogadishu to meet with her Somali counterpart, Mohamed Abdirizak. Following the meeting, the Somali foreign affairs minister tweeted, “It’s indeed a revitalised beginning for us as we seek to foster our diplomatic and bilateral ties.” Prior to leaving Mogadishu, CS Omamo met with Somali Prime Minister Roble, where they also discussed promoting diplomatic relations between the two neighbouring countries. While there, she officially opened the Kenyan embassy in Mogadishu. Two months prior to her visit, the two countries restored relations through series of statements.

The Union of Presidential Candidates (UPC), a coalition of opposition leaders, meet in Mogadishu to discuss the ongoing impasse on the election of the Upper House delegates from Somaliland. As previously reported, the Somaliland Upper House election has been complicated by the creation of two factions, one allied to the outgoing speaker of the Upper House, Abdi Hashi and the other allied to the Deputy Prime Minister Gulaid. Despite the impasse, the Prime Minister allowed the election of Somaliland poll team leadership, which the Hashi faction did not partake in. After the chairperson and deputy election, PM spokesperson tweeted, “PM Mohamed Roble congratulated the elected board members of the Somaliland Electoral Commission SIET on Saturday and urged them to accelerate the election process in collaboration with the FEIT. PM Roble reiterated that he would continue to reconcile Somaliland politicians.”

The heads of the AU and UN Missions in Somalia, AMISOM and UNSOM, respectively, briefed the UN Security Council (UNSC) on the ongoing electoral process and security situation in Somalia UNSOM head, James Swan, told the council said that Al-Shabaab still posed a threat to the election process. AMISOM head, Francisco Madeira, agreed with UNSOM head, adding that AMISOM troops and Somali troops have been conducting operations around the country, focusing on towns hosting the election process. On the election process, James Swan lauded Prime Minister Roble for his continued efforts to ensure the election takes place by having regular meetings with the regional presidents and other local and international stakeholders.

Prior to the address, UNSOM signed over a portion of the election budget worth 7.7 million dollars to help with the government expenses, including public awareness campaigns, ensuring a 30% quota is upheld, and administrative operations.

The Union of Presidential Candidates (UPC), a coalition of opposition leaders, meet in Mogadishu to discuss the political situation in the country. The three-day meeting focused on the ongoing Upper House of Parliament election. South West State is the second state after Puntland to complete the Upper House election, while Jubaland and Galmudug have partially completed the process. On the other hand, HirShabelle and Somaliland states are yet to begin the process. They also discussed how to learn from the Upper House electoral process so that the Lower House of Parliament election goes smoothly. 

Former Jubaland Security Minister Abdirashid Janan has a fallout with President Farmaajo and National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), Fahad Yasin, over his intentions to run for Lower House election. Janan and President Farmaajo joined forces against Jubaland President, Ahmed Islam “Madobe” to influence the election in Gedo region. Janan was on the run for several months after he escaped from a jail in Mogadishu, where he was accused of violating the human rights of prisoners in Jubaland when he was security minister. His formed alliance with President Farmaajo led to all charges against him being dropped.

The fallout between Janan and President Farmaajo and his camp has implications in Gedo region. Militias allied to Janan in Dolow district in Gedo region has been active in the area. Back in Mogadishu, Janan moved out of his premise that was protected by intelligence officials to another house in the city, deep in opposition territory.

The UN called on all armed parties in Somalia to protect humanitarian workers throughout the country. The UN resident and humanitarian Coordinator, Adam Abdelmoula, said that the country had recorded 146 incidents impacting humanitarian operations during the first seven months of the year. In his World Humanitarian Day statement, Abdelmoula said that 5.9 million Somalis require humanitarian aid; therefore, attacks on aid workers slows down the UN’s ability to deliver life-saving aid.

Following a week of uproar from civilians over the deaths of seven civilians by AMISOM, the AU forces and the Somali Prime Minister have announced that separate investigations are underway. AMISOM announced that a seven-member board of inquiry had been formed to investigate the matter. The board includes Somalis security officials as a way to bring credibility to the investigation. The Prime Minister stated that following a meeting with the Ugandan Ambassador to Somalia, a ministerial committee to investigate the tragic incident was formed. The ministerial committee met with AMISOM officials and the Ugandan Ambassador to Somalia in Mogadishu to discuss the incident.

On 7 August, Ugandan troops part of AMISOM killed seven civilians while pursuing Al-Shabaab militants who had ambushed their convoy. The killing of the civilians caused weeks of protests by the affected deceased clan members.

The Federal Government of Somalia has finally broken their silence on the disappearance of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), Ikran Tahliil Farah. In a statement, the government claimed that the extremist group, Al Shabaab, is responsible for the disappearance and killing of the 24-year-old NISA agent. However, the government did not provide any proof for the allegation.  The government concluded its statement that they were in pursuit of her killers.

Al-Shabaab was quick to deny the claims that they were responsible for the disappearance. The group acknowledged that they had targeted NISA agents previously, but they were not responsible for her disappearance. The group further stated that they usually acknowledge their targeting of NISA and other government officials through its media affiliates.

 The mother of Ikran spoke to the media and said that she does not believe the government’s claim that Al Shabaab is behind her daughter’s disappearance.

The disappearance of Ikran on 26 June has become a contentious issue in Somali politics. She is believed to be the whistle-blower who informed the public that the Somali government had secretly sent young military cadets to Eritrea with the intent to fight in Tigray. The UNHRC report earlier in the year validated the rumours, saying that at least 300 Somali troops have been spotted near Axum. The federal government was quick to dismiss the report by the UN agency. Unfortunately, the disappearance of Ikran has become very politicised, with opponents of outgoing President Farmaajo using the story to remain relevant during the election period.

Following the statement from the federal government blaming Al-Shabaab for the disappearance and death of intelligence agent Ikran Tahlil, Somali Prime Minister Hussein Roble has demanded the intelligence head to release an official report in 48 hours. PM Roble demanded that the head of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), Fahad Yasin, release details on the agency’s findings since the statement was incomplete, unsatisfactory, and did not contain sufficient evidence. In a televised speech, the PM acknowledged that the government had not done its job to investigate the disappearance of Ikran.

The council of opposition presidential candidates welcomed the decision by PM, applying pressure on NISA to tell the public what their investigation has uncovered. Previously, the council had urged PM Roble to fire NISA head Fahad Yasin, who they believe is behind her disappearance.

NISA Head, Yasin Fahad, sets new conditions for the release of an official statement. He asked President Farmaajo to call the national security committee later in the month so that the report could be released.

The Federal Electoral Implementation Commission (FEIT) issued a new timetable for the ongoing parliamentary election in Somalia following many delays.  To accommodate the ongoing wrangles in HirShabelle and Somaliland caucus, the Upper House elections should be completed by 18 September. The preparation of the Lower House election, including registration, will begin on 25 September, and the entire process should take place between 1 October and 20 November. Finally, the new members of parliament will be sworn into power by 25 November to allow for the presidential election to take place.

Prime Minister Roble issued a statement firing the head of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) over his failure to produce a report on the disappearance of NISA agent Ikran Tahlil on 26 June. Moreover, PM Roble instructed the military court prosecutor to conduct a thorough investigation into the NISA agent disappearance.

President Abdullahi Farmaajo immediately responded to the firing of Yasin, his close ally, terming the move by the Prime Minister as ‘unconstitutional.’ He added that Yasin should continue to serve as the head of NISA. In relation to the disappearance of Ikran, the President instructed Yasin Fahad to present the findings to the National Security Council, scheduled to meet on 18 September.

The disappearance of Ikran has caused turmoil in Somalia. Last week, the federal government issued a statement claiming that Ikran was abducted and killed by the terrorist group Al-Shabab, a claim that the group vehemently denied. The firing of Yasin once again bring up the issue of the constitutionality of the actions by the Prime Minister.  Unfortunately, the transitional constitution is flawed, with many contradictory acts, therefore, making the actions of the Prime Minister both constitutionally sound and unconstitutional. For example, articles 87 and 90 provide the President with the sole power to fire and hire those members of the armed forces, including NISA, while Articles 97 and 100 give the same powers to the Prime Minister. 

Analysts have claimed that NISA head, a former Al-Shabaab commander, and President Farmaajo, are obstructing justice by not allowing the public and the family of the agent to find out what the investigation has uncovered. If the government claims that Ikran was abducted and killed by Al-Shabaab, the analysts call on the government to produce evidence to support the claims. Though Al-Shabaab exaggerates the extent of their attacks in Somalia, it is rare for the group to remain silent about executing a government official over the past two and half months. Some analysts have called on a neutral third party to intervene in the investigation so that the issue is not politicised, further causing chaos in the country. If the issue is not dealt with properly, it can impact the ongoing election process, which has been delayed for months.

The tension between Somali President Abdullahi Farmaajo and Prime Minister Hussein Roble continues to rise as both appoint the head of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA). Prime Minister Roble appointed the current deputy of NISA, Bashir Mohamed Jama, Alias Bashir Gobe, while President Farmaajo appointed Colonel Yasin Abdullahi Mohamud. As a result, it is unclear who is in charge of NISA at this point, as both officials assumed the duties of the office.

8 September 2021: Somali Prime Minister Roble and President Farmaajo clash again over the security minister’s firing.

Tensions rose higher between Somali Prime Minister Roble and President Farmaajo when the PM fired the security minister, Hassan Hundubey, a key ally of President Farmaajo. In a statement, the PM thanked the Minister for his hard work. PM Roble appointed Abdullahi Mohamed Nur as the new Security Minister. PM Roble quickly moved to solidify his appointment with a small swearing ceremony.

Like the firing of the Head of National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), Yasin Fahad, the firing of Minister Hundubey calls into question the constitutionality of Prime Minister Roble actions. Once again, the transitional constitution has elements that give the parliament, President and Prime Minister contradictory powers to fire and power.

UN Deputy Secretary-General, Amina Mohamed, met with Somali President Abdullahi Farmaajo while on a working visit to Somalia. In the meeting, they discussed strengthening the UN support to Somalia, empowering women, and accelerating the election process. The meeting comes as Somalia does Upper House election, therefore, it was essential for the UN Deputy Secretary-General to stress the importance of maintaining the 30% women’s quota, which was not met in the last election.

Somali Prime Minister Hussein Roble issued a statement to the Central Bank of Somalia, National Treasury, and Somali Finance Minister, Dr Beileh, stating that no funds should be withdrawn from government accounts, including the funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), during the transitional period. “Given the country’s transition and the need to pay more attention to the DDS disbursement process and the use of the IMF’s SDRs [Special Drawing Rights], the FGS [Federal Government of Somalia] Prime Minister instructed the Ministry of Finance and those addressed in this letter that no expenses of any kind may be made without the consent of the Somali PM,” the letter said in part. He further stated that the payment of salaries of soldiers and other civil servants must be pre-approved by him.

Under mounting pressure from the public, the Somali President broke his silence and announced the appointment of a commission to investigate the death of intelligence agent Ikran Farah. The National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) agent disappeared on 26 June without a trace. The formation of the committee comes weeks after the government realised a statement claiming that the insurgent group, Al-Shabaab was behind her disappearance and death, a claim that the extremist group denied

Prime Minister Hussein Roble objected to the formation of the new committee, saying that the President is jeopardising the current investigation conducted by the military courts. “Appointing a commission of inquiry into a case before a court is against the constitution and the laws of the land, and it is not right for a representative of the body that is at the centre of investigations to be part of the inquiry team as this is against the principles of natural justice for Ikraan Tahalil Farah’s family,” the statement said in part.

The family of NISA agent Ikran also opposed the involvement of the President in the investigation. Her mother, Qali Mohamed Guhad, rejected the committee, adding that the government attempted to cover up what happened to her daughter. Furthermore, she questioned the motives of the President to all of a sudden want to investigate despite three months of silence.

Following months of delay, the HirShabelle state in Somali finally began the Upper House election to elect four out of the eight seats allocated to the regional state. The winners of the election are 1. Muse Sudi, a retuning senator, 2. Nur Mohamed Gedi defeated incumbent Senator Mohamed Osman Djagajun, 3) incumbent Fartun Abdikadir Karama, and 4) Dr Osman Mohamud Mohamed ‘Dufle’ defeated Farmaajo ally and current Somali Ambassador to Kenya, Mohamud Ahmed Nur ‘Tarzan.

The election process was further delayed due to a brawl from two opposing sides during the third night of the election over seats number 5 and 6. However, days later, the election for the two seats took place with Colonel Ahmed Mohamed Ali Afcadey and Hassan Idow Mohamed ‘Kobac’winning the seats. Colonel Ahmed Mohamed Ali Afcadey’s election has been viewed as problematic since he served as the commander of the Presidential Guards and is a close friend of President Farmaajo.

In a surprise statement, President Farmaajo issued a statement limiting the powers of Prime Minister Roble. The statement said that due to what he deemed as rash decisions made by the Prime Minister over the past week, he had limited his ability to fire and hire new people. The statement claimed that the recent actions by the Prime Minister has caused turmoil and could ‘lead the country into a political and security crisis.” The President cited Articles 87 and 90 of the Somali provisional constitution as the basis of his decree.

In response to the decree, Prime Minister Roble claimed that President Farmaajo’s actions were unconstitutional. He asserted that he would not comply with the Presidential Decree. “The Prime Minister, while safeguarding the national interest and the system of government, urges the President to stop violating the National Constitution, violating the electoral agreements, disrupting the work of the Government, creating instability and attempting to sabotage the elections,” the statement read in part.

Former intelligence head, Fahad Yasin, was detained by Djiboutian authorities after the Turkish Airlines plane was rerouted back to Djibouti while on its way to Mogadishu. It is unclear why the Turkish plane was rerouted back to Djibouti and why the former National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) head was detained. Abdirashid M Hashi, President Farmaajo’s spokesman, in a statement, condemned the arrests saying, “the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) regrets the violation of the rights of travellers and international law by the Government of Djibouti.” Hashi condemned “the unlawful detention” of Fahad Yasin, who was ejected from his plane in Djibouti and interrupted during his travel.

The regional President representing the five regional states issued a statement voicing their concern over the rising tensions between Prime Minister Hussein Roble and President Abdullahi Farmaajo. They urged both sides to, 1) engage in dialogue to solve the current issues, 2) respect the 17 September 2020, 27 May and 22 August 2021 agreements. In the matter of Ikran’s disappearance, the regional states called for the case to be investigated through the legal process and by independent authorities.

The Union of Opposition Presidential Candidates issued a statement condemning President Farmaajo. They claimed that the President’s actions could cause security and political crises in Somalia if not dealt with immediately. They further claimed that the President needs to allow an independent investigation into the disappearance of Ikran.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) members following a brief by the UN Representative of the Secretary-General, James Swan, expressed their deep concern about the rising tensions. In a statement, the UNSC members stated that the tension is negatively impacting the already delayed election timetable. They urged both leaders to exercise restraint and underlined the importance of maintaining peace, security and stability in Somalia.  

Other members of the international community also voiced their concerns. The EU representative to Somalia called on the President and Prime Minister to end their political stand off and focus on the election. He added that the key is the well being of the Somali population. Through its Minister for Africa, Vicky Ford, the UK called on the Somali leadership to “refrain from any unilateral actions that could deepen political tensions, including further public statements and personal announcement.”

The Speaker of the Outgoing Senate, Abdi Hashi, and the Deputy Prime Minister (DPM), Mahdi Gulaid, agree on the 11 candidates vying for the Upper House of Parliament. Speaker Hashi, who was initially going to run opposed for seat 1, will run against Sai’d Omar Hussein. The other candidates vying are: Seat two: Ahmed Mohamed Qorane Bashe Ahmed Ismail. Seat three: Leyla Ahmed Ismail Mohamed Mohamud Abdi. Seat four: Deeqa Hassan Hussein Hodan Abokor Hassan. Seat five; Prof Mohamed Mohamud Allabari Prof Abdi Ismail Samatar Abdirahman Osman Ali Seat six: Bilal Idrish Abdullahi Saynab Ahmed Boqore. Seat seven: Salah Ahmed Jamah Ibrahim Idle Saleban. Seat eight: Saiid Abdi Hussein Jamah Abdullahi. Seat nine: Abdirizaq Ahmed Ali Hassan Abdi Gaas Ahmed Mohamed. Seat 10: Osman Abokor Dube Abdikariim Mohamed Hassan and Seat 11: Muna Omar HassanNaima Hassan Mohamud Suad Hassan Mohamed.

The unveiling of the candidates running for the Upper House election caused Somaliland, the unrecognised country, to issue a statement stating they have no relation with the ongoing elections taking place in Mogadishu. The Somaliland government warned Somalia, saying the government of the Republic of Somaliland warns the Somali administration and politicians against making false and misleading illusions that are misleading the international community.” Somaliland reiterated their independence from Somalia in 1991, following the fall of the Said Barre regime.

Forces loyal to Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jama (ASWJ), a moderate Islamist group, have begun their first military operations in Galmudug State since their defeat in February 2020. The spiritual leader, Sheikh Yusuf Dire and Mohamed Sheikh Hassan Farah, travelled to two different towns last week, causing uncertainty in the region as their intent was not known. The two leaders claimed they were in town for a religious service but could not be verified. While in regional state, the two leaders have met with different clan elders, making regional analysts to suppose the leaders are attempting another political revival ahead of the Lower House election in the regional state. Local reports claim that the meetings with the clan elders led to the delivery of arms caches to ASWJ to use during the military operations.

The Police Chief of Guri el Town, Osman Ali Hudey, in Galmudug has warned militia members mobilising in his town. He said that the militias, all allied to AWSJ, are attempting to take over the town. He warned those mobilising that the government would respond ‘with an iron fist.” The mobilisation of ASWJ-affiliated militias led to regional and federal troops deployment to Guri el town and Dhusamareb, the regional administrative capital.

Somali Prime Minister Hussein Roble welcomed the Ugandan Land Forces Commander Lt. Gen Muhoozi to his office during his five-day working visit to Somalia. The two officials discussed Uganda’s role in promoting peace and stability in Somalia and UPDF’s role in AMISOM. The Prime Minister thanked UPDF troops serving under AMISOM for supporting peacebuilding efforts.

The meeting comes a month and a half after Ugandan troops were accused of killing seven civilians. The killings caused mass protests in Mogadishu, led by family members of the deceased and the deceased’ clan elders. The protesters demanded justice for the deceased that included the admission of guilt and compensation.

Following a minor hiccup, the Somaliland caucus election for the Upper House was held in Mogadishu in front of some Somali politicians, including Prime Minister Roble, and the international communities. At the opening ceremony, PM Roble said, “It is a great honour for me to attend such key event on the election of the seats Upper House election of Somaliland today. I urge electoral teams to hold free and fair elections, and after this ends, we will automatically move to hold election of the Lower House soon.”

As expected, the outgoing Speaker, Abdi Hashi, won the election easily. Two women, Naima Mohamed Hassan and Deeqa Hassan Hussein, were among the winners of the election. The other winners are the federal Constitutional Affairs Minister, Salah Ahmed Jama, well known Somali historian and professor Abdi Ismail Samatar, federal Minister of Information, Osman Abukar Dubbe, Leylo Ismail, Said Abdi Hassan, Ahmed Mohamed Said and Ahmed Mohamed Qorane.

Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jama’a (ASWJ), a relatively moderate Islamic group, took control of a district in Central Somalia. Ahlu Sunna and its militia took control of Guriel district in Galmudug state, forcing the regional and federal troops to leave the district’s administrative capital. While speaking to the media, an official of the group said, “Today we have taken full control of Guriel district, and we have been welcomed by the local community. We have been working for these people and this area in the past, and now we are ready to serve and protect these people, and we call on them to remain calm.” Upon taking over the district, the group declared war on Al-Shabaab, claiming that they intended to liberate towns and villages from the militant group. There was a mixed reaction to the arrival of Ahlu Sunna into Guriel town, with some residents taking to the streets to celebrate while others fled Guriel town in fear that the presence of Ahlu Sunna would result in clashes with the government and regional troops. At least 20 people have been injured in the heavy fighting between the government forces. The day after taking over the Guriel district, reports indicate that the group are pushing towards Dhusamareb, the capital of the regional state of Galmudug. Fighting has been reported between ASWJ and government/regional troops in Bohol village, which is approximately 20km north of Dhusamareb. Other reports indicate the group has taken over Eldhere village, about 30 KM from the capital. With Ahlu Sunna taking over Guriel district, Galmudug President, Ahmed Abdi Kariye QoorQoor, travelled back to the State from Mogadishu. Upon arrival, the president met with military and police officials to discuss the ongoing crisis in Guriel. While speaking to the media, the regional Information Minister, Ahmed Shire Falagle, said, “Our administration does not see any problem with Ahlu-Sunna returning to their areas and conducting visits, which is part of the flexibility of the Galmudug state.” In an effort to find a peaceful settlement, the regional President also met with clan elders. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Roble has called for de-escalation of tensions in the Galmudug region. He sent his condolences to the victims of the clashes between the regional/government troops and AWSJ. Ahlu Sunna was dominant in Galmudug politics until February 2020, when they failed t
In a surprise move, Somaliland deported at least 700 Somali nationals to neighbouring Somali regions. The 700 people were deported from Las’Anod town, in the Sool region, in Somaliland, and taken to Puntland and South-West regions in Somalia. The regional police chief in Somaliland claimed the Somali nationals were “illegal immigrants” from Somalia. “People from southern Somalia are foreigners, they are like Ethiopians, and we will deport them from Las Anod,” said General Ahmed Abdullahi Abdi. He added that the deported individuals, including small children and pregnant mothers, were responsible for insecurity in the area. The deportation took place over several days, with the regional police arresting hundreds of people and placing them in the Las’Anod football stadium. Puntland and South West State have independently created commissions to assist the regional states to deal with the influx of deportees from Somaliland. Puntland already hosts at least 2000 people from the Las’Anod area due to conflict. The deportation of the 700 people was widely condemned by the Somali government and the international community alike. In a statement, the Somali Ministry of Justice said, I am deeply saddened by what is happening in Las Anod. The deportation of Somalis from a Somali city is something new in our culture, and it does not reflect the civilization and the governance culture of the state.” Meanwhile, in Somaliland, prominent politicians have voiced their disapproval of the deportation of Somali nationals. Former Speaker of the Parliament, Mohamed Sheikh Osman Jawari, stated that the deportation was a “violation of Islamic and Somali law.” Prof Mubarik Ibrahim Aar, one of Somaliland’s most prominent lawyers, described the Somaliland government’s operation as “illegal.” Somaliland declared its independence from Somalia in 1991 at the height of the civil war following the removal of Siad Barre from power in 1991. Though declaring its independence three decades ago, no country has recognised its status. Some elders in Las Anod district denounced the deportation, adding that they were not consulted in the matter.
The Somali Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT) called on the regional states to complete the Upper House election for Senators as soon as possible. The remarks come as the amended election schedule for the second house of Parliament, the Lower House or the House of the People, passes. The Lower House election was supposed to begin on 1 October. So far, 46 out of the 54 Senators have been elected, with Jubaland and HirShabelle yet to finish the elections.
HirShabelle State finally held its election for the remaining senatorial seats in Jowhar. Senators Ali Shabaan and Zamzam Abdullahi won the last two seats of the Upper House. The election was stalled for a period of time due to clashes between the regional president and his vice president over the candidates for the election. Each leader was supporting different candidates. The previous round of elections resulted in a brawl between the two camps, forcing the election process to stop.

The UN and its main humanitarian aid agency, OCHA, expressed their concern over the deportation of hundreds of Somalis from Somaliland’s Las’Anod region. From their investigation, at least seven thousand people were deported from Somaliland over the last couple of days. In a joint statement with the Somali NGO consortium, the displaced persons are currently camping in the outskirts of Galkayo, Mudug region and Garowe, Nugaal region in Puntland. They require basic needs such as proper shelter, food and water.

While attending the inauguration of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Ahmed Abiy, Somali President Abdullahi Farmaajo discussed strengthening bilateral relations between the two countries. In a tweet, Villa Somalia said, “H.E M_Farmaajo holds talks with Abiy Ahmed Ali. The leadership agreed on enhancing bilateral cooperation towards regional security, economic growth & development for mutual prosperity. President Farmaajo wished PM Abiy success while assuring him support as he enters the new term.”

Somalia and Ethiopia signed the Tripartite agreement with Eritrea in 2018 when Ethiopia and Eritrea normalised their relations. However, regional analysts have criticised the pact, saying that it will cause more conflict in the region as it undermines other regional institutions such as IGAD. In addition, president Farmaajo has been accused of sending troops to fight in the Tigray conflict, by sending troops to Eritrea for training then diverted to Ethiopia. Though the government denies the reports, a UN report provided evidence that Somali troops were, in fact, in the Axum region of Ethiopia.

Two Members of Parliament from the HirShabelle State of Somalia have been injured in an attack in Jowhar, the regional administrative capital. Unidentified gunmen threw a grenade into the residence of the mayor of Jowhar town while having an event in the evening. The two MPs have been identified as MP Abdirahman Idow and MP Mohamed Dheere.

The African Union Security Council endorsed the proposal by the technical team of the creation of an AU-UN hybrid mission to replace the African Union Mission in Somalia. In a statement, the Council said the AU-UN Multidimensional Stabilization Mission in Somalia would “ensure predictable and sustainable multi-year financing for the future mission, through UN assessed contributions.”

The Somali government rejected the AU technical team’s proposal for a hybrid mission to replace AMISOM from January 2022. The government claimed that the technical team did not consider Somali views on the matter. The statement further stated that the AU should have stuck to the original Somali Transitional Plan, which aimed to have all Somali security agencies fully capable of taking over security responsibility from January 2022.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in favour of Somalia’s argument in the maritime case with Kenya. Somalia submitted its case to the ICJ in 2014, claiming that Kenya is occupying 100,000 sq. km of its cost. Kenya argued that there is a previous agreement with Somalia over the disputed territory, which the Court ruled is non-existent. However, Kenya did not go home empty-handed, as the Court ruled that at least 25,000sq km is part of the country while Somalia remains with ¾ of the territory.  

Somalia welcomed the ruling. President Farmaajo of Somalia called on Kenya to respect the court ruling. Somali Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Bilal Mohamed Osman, said that Somalia would defend its seas, adding that it is not in Kenya’s best interests that relations between the two nations deteriorate further than they have.

Kenya rejects the ruling by the ICJ. However, even though Kenya rejects the ruling, ICJ judgements are final and cannot be appealed. On the other hand, the ICJ ruling is not easily enforced since it is up to the ‘losing’ country to obey the ruling.

The court case is important for both countries because the disputed areas are believed to be rich in gas and oil deposits and fishing rights.

The US expressed its concern over the delayed elections during a phone call with Somali Foreign Affair Minister Abdirizak Mohamed. In a tweet, the US Bureau of African Affairs said, “Delighted to receive Somalia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohamed Abdirizak today at the State Department, where I stressed that NCC Somalia must complete elections this year and Pres Farmajo and PM Roble need to resolve their dispute quickly. The US remains committed to Somalia’s peace, security, and prosperity.” In a separate meeting, the Foreign Affairs Minister met with the France Permanent Representative to the UN, Nicolas De Riviere, in Washington DC. He also urged Somali leadership to ensure that the election was not delayed any further. In a Twitter post, Nicolas said, “Discussion today with Minister Abdirizak of Somalia on the importance of organising elections within the agreed timelines and on the transfer of security responsibilities to Somalia through a full implementation of the transition plan and a reconfiguration of @amisomsomalia.
Somaliland President, Musa Bihi, and the UN Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are at loggerheads over the deportation of thousands of Somalis from Somaliland. The Somaliland President stated that the country cannot take care of “refugees from the south.” Additionally, the president said that OCHA has never supported Somaliland in taking care of refugees from Somalia and Ethiopia. The Somaliland government deported more than 7 000 Somalis from Las’Anod at the beginning of October, forcing Puntland and South West State to take in an influx of people at short notice. Part of the problem in dealing with the deportation of Somalis is the issue of recognition of Somaliland. Since the international community maintains that Somaliland is part of Somalia, though Somaliland asserts they are independent, it is difficult for international institutions to consider Somalis living in Somaliland as refugees.
Following months of tension between the Somali President and Prime Minister, the two sides have agreed to peacefully resolve their issues, with the help of politicians, including the President of South West State, Abdiaziz “Laftagareen.” The agreement between the two sides stated; 1) The PM-appointed Minister of Security, Abdullahi Mohamed Nur, will remain in the position, 2) The president-appointed Head of National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), Yasin Abdullahi Mohamud (Farey), will remain in the position; 3) The PM-appointed Head of NISA, General Bashir Goobe, was transferred to the Ministry of Public works; One of the major sources of conflict between President Abdullahi Farmaajo and Prime Minister Hussein Roble is the case regarding the disappearance of a female intelligence officer, Ikraan, on 26 June 2021. The investigation into the disappearance led to the formation of contrary statements, the firing of the head of NISA, Fahad Yasin, and the Minister of Security, Hassan Hundebey. The confusion reached an all-time high when each position had two people occupying the seat. Each side quoted articles in the provisional Constitution to justify their actions.

The five-day conflict between moderate Islamist group, Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a (ASWJ), and the Somali National Army (SNA), backed by Galmudug Darwish forces, has led to the deaths of at least 120 people. Before the fighting began, ASWJ fighters marched into Guriel town, Galmudug state, earlier in the month, with the support of part of the population. The heightened tension led to a five-day conflict between the two sides. Each side suffered major losses, including the death of the regional commander of the US-trained special forces, Danab, Major Abdifatah Fayle. After three days of fighting, Ahmed Shire Falagle, Galmudug state’s Information Minister, said 16 government soldiers were killed and 45 injured.  According to local media reports, the intervention by the business community and elders in Guriel led to the withdrawal of ASWJ from the town. Reports claim that the group has retreated to a nearby village of Godwill.

On the humanitarian front, the UN Office in the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) led to the displacement of at least 100 000 people from Guriel town. The internally displaced persons (IDPs) fled to neighbouring towns affected by drought, further causing tensions between the local population and the IDPs. To make matters worse, two main hospitals in Guriel town were targeted by mortar shells and other ammunition. One of the hospitals, treating hundreds of civilians injured in the fighting, had to shut down. Fortunately, when calm returned to Guriel after ASWJ retreated, the federal government sent medical supplies to support the hospitals. On the other hand, the fighting forced the shutdown of 17 schools serving at least 40 000 students.

Following the conflict, Galmudug president Ahmed Abdi Kariye “QoorQoor” travelled to Guriel town to boost the morale of the troops. In his visit, he thanked the armed forces for their strength to ‘defeat’ ASWJ and protect the state from outside influences. In another event, the president called on ASWJ to relinquish their weapons. He added that the troops would deal firmly with those who attack districts and attempt to disrupt operations in Galmudug state. Discussing the conflict, the president alleged that his administration had attempted for 22 days to have a dialogue with ASWJ, but the group refused the olive branch. Therefore, President QoorQoor said the troops “had no option but to go to war.” “We are deeply sorry for what happened to our people in Guriel town. We are sending our sincere condolences to the families of those killed in the fighting and pray for a quick recovery for those wounded in the clashes,” he said.

 In a media engagement, President “QoorQoor” claimed that the ASWJ is supported by outside influence and regional states. Puntland was quick to deny the allegations that they are supporting the ASWJ. The rumours that Puntland was supporting the ASWJ were partially supported by the fact that many of the injured militiamen were taken to Garowe, in Puntland, to seek treatment. Additionally, some of the ASWJ leadership have homes in Garowe town. The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) released a statement refuting the allegations that its troops were involved in fighting in Guriel town. The public and the ASWJ claimed that Ethiopian troops, part of AMISOM, engaged in the conflict. A local media report claimed that weapons from AMISOM bases in Mogadishu were transported to Guriel to support the regional and federal troops.

Somalia’s Puntland State held its one-day historic “one-person, one-vote” in three districts electing councillors. Thousands of residents of Puntland state woke up early in the morning, waiting for their turn to be part of the historic vote. The election, overseen by Transitional Puntland Electoral Commission (TPEC), only took place in three out of six main districts, which is further subdivided into smaller districts.

The political party belonging to the President Abdullahi Deni of Puntland, Kaah Party, won many votes, followed by the Mideye party. Following the announcement of election results, four opposition groups joined forces to create a new coalition opposition group to counter President Deni’s political party.

Days after the election, the international community issued a statement congratulating President Deni of Puntland, the TPEC and the people of Puntland for their outstanding accomplishments. They welcomed the “enthusiasm shown by the population of the districts of Qardho, Eyl and Ufayn, as shown by the high number of voters who turned out.” The international community said that the Puntland elections, though small in scale, clearly indicate that Somalia can hold one-person, one-vote elections.

Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a (ASWJ) has reportedly set up camp in Bohol, north of Dhusamareb, the administrative capital of Galmudug State in Somalia, following the devastating five-day conflict in Guriel. Following the reports, the political affairs head, Abdisalam Aden Hussein, assured the public that they were not intending to attack government posts or take over the administrative capital of Dhusamareb. He asserted that ASWJ is only interested in defeating Al-Shabaab, who is the real enemy of the Somali people. The head of the Political Affairs unit of AWSJ accused the regional government led by President Ahmed “QoorQoor” and the federal Government of Somalia (FGS) of not being serious in the fight against Al-Shabaab.

Lower House election officially kicks off in Mogadishu with the Somaliland caucus. The Somaliland electoral commission will facilitate the election for Seat HOP 239 and 237 by delegates. The election will take place through a secret ballot with two candidates running for each seat, including the outgoing Deputy Prime Minister, Mahdi Gulaid.

The Lower House elections took place even though the Upper House elections are not yet complete.

The Somali Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohamed Abdirizak Mohamud, met separately with top US and Kenyan officials. While meeting with Ms Colleen Crenwelge, the Charge d’Affaires at the US Embassy in Mogadishu, the two officials discussed strengthening US-Somalia relations, ongoing elections and how to expedite the electoral process. In contrast, the Foreign Affairs met with the Kenyan Ambassador to Somalia, Lt. General (Rtd) Lucan Tumbo, where they discussed strengthening Kenya- Somalia bilateral cooperation following months of uneasy relations. They also discussed arranging a meeting on the Somalia-Kenya joint commission for cooperation, a commission which was created following the normalisation of relations.

The Foreign Affairs Ministry (MoFA) issued a statement declaring Deputy Head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) as persona non grata. Deputy Head of AMISOM, Simon Mulongo from Uganda, was given seven days to leave Somalia. In a tweet, the Foreign Affairs Minister, Abdirizak Mohamed, said, “Somalia will realise the implementation of the Somalia Transition Plan, everyone will be held accountable for their actions, no one will be allowed to hinder the Somali nation, we have simply come too far.  The Federal Government of Somalia will hold accountable Amisom personnel, particularly at the leadership level, who are expected to be beyond reproach in their integrity as they discharge a duty under the UN/AU mandate.”

Local media reports claimed Simoon Mulongo is being accused for, corruption and sexual harassment, hindering the Somali Transition Plan and investigating the Golweyn incident where AMISOM troops killed seven civilians.

The Foreign Affairs Minister, Abdirizak Mohamed, met with the head of AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Ambassador Francisco Madeira, in his office in Mogadishu. The two officials discussed the ongoing elections, security situation in Somalia, Somali Transition Plan (STP), and AMISOM mandate. In relation to the ongoing dispute on the future of AMISOM, the two leaders discussed how to unite efforts to support the STP while improving the readiness of the Somali security forces.

The Somali Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Mohamed Abdirizak Mohamed, spoke on the country’s view of post-AMISOM. While addressing the 15-member African Union Peace and Security Council (AU-PSC), Minister Mohamed said that Somalia “will not accept foot-dragging, misrepresentation and delays that hinder the implementation of a successful security.” He insisted that Somalia will not have an AU-UN hybrid mission to replace AMISOM. He stated, “The simple truth remains no options can be viable without the approval of the host nation, and the Somali Transitional Plan (STP) remains the position of the FGS not only under this administration but future administration. The Somali nation is united in seeking to realise the responsibility for its own security and irrespective of election politics or otherwise, this will remain constant.”

After four months, Somalia has finally completed the Upper House parliamentary election. Parliamentarians in Galmudug State elected Abdi Qeybdid and Abdi Osman Hared as the 53rd and 54th senators. The elections in Galmudug State were delayed due to the five day fighting between government/regional forces and Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jama (ASWJ) militia.

The Somali elections have been delayed for almost a year now, with the parliament and the Presidency operating without a mandate. Due to many disagreements between the regional government and the executive, led by President Farmaajo, as well as clan dynamics, led to the delay.

The Somali president and the Internationally community separately welcome the end to the Upper House election. Somali President Abdullahi Farmaajo congratulated the Somali Prime Minister, Hussein Roble, and the federal/state level implementation teams for completing the first hurdle in the parliamentary election. He additionally thanked the Somali security forces for ensuring the security of the polling stations.

The international community issued a statement welcoming the conclusion of the Upper House election. However, they also voiced their concern about the deeply delayed election timeline. They urged the Somali leaders to swiftly complete the electoral process for the House of the People, also known as the Lower House.

Following months-long Court Martial proceedings in Mogadishu, two Ugandan soldiers part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) were sentenced to death for killing civilians in pursuit of Al-Shabaab in Lower Shabelle on 10 August. Five other soldiers were sentenced to 39 years in jail, each for their involvement in the incident in the Golweyn area of Somalia. After the incident, AMISOM formed a Board of Inquiry (BOI), with one of the members representing the Somali security forces, to investigate the allegations by the media. As the BOI investigated the incident, the family and relatives of the seven deceased took to the streets of Mogadishu to hold AMISOM accountable for the actions.

The first of its kind, the court proceedings were held in Mogadishu to allow the victims’ relatives to attend the proceedings. The families of the victims were happy with the sentences. They called for AMISOM to provide monetary support to the families.

The UN Security Council (UNSC) members voted to extend the arms embargo on Somalia for another year. Resolution 2607/2021 extends the sanction 750, which has been in place since the fall of the Siad Barre regime in 1991 and the Somali civil war ensued.  The embargo bans the sale or shipment to Somalia of components used to manufacture improvised explosive devices. China and Russia abstained from the vote, while the other 13 members voted for the resolution.

The regional block, InterGovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), called on the Somali leaders to expedite the electoral process. The executive secretary, Workneh Gebeyehu, asserted that the ongoing Lower House election should be completed without any delays.

The Somali elections have been delayed for almost a year now, with the parliament and the Presidency operating without a mandate. Due to many disagreements between the regional government and the executive, led by President Farmaajo, as well as clan dynamics, led to the delay. The new timetable states that the Lower House election should be completed by 24 December 2021. Regional analysts say that the timetable is wishful thinking since the Upper House election took four months to complete.

The Somali National Army (SNA) received new military vehicles from Turkey. At the handover ceremony, the Turkish Ambassador to Somalia handed over military vehicles, including trucks and ambulances. Elite Somali forces, gorgor commandos, will use the vehicles.

Turkey remains one of the main countries that supports Somalia, providing military training both in Somalia and Turkey. The Somali Armed Forces Commander, Gen Odawa, told the media that Turkey’s military support is essential to the fight against Al-Shabaab.

Somali Foreign Affairs Minister Mohamed Abdirizak was fired by Prime Minister Hussein Roble. Prime Minister Roble appointed Abdulaziz Muse Ali as the new Foreign Affairs Minister and Mohamed Abdi Hassan alias Pekos as the deputy. Before becoming Minister, Muse Ali served as national security advisor to President Farmaajo. Following his dismissal, Abdirizak took to social media to discuss his dismissal. He called the move by PM Roble as “unfortunate” and “surprising.” He said that he had submitted resignation papers a week prior, but the president had rejected it. In an interview, the former minister said, “If there were any shortcomings, they would be our own. I was doing my job honestly, and I was surprised by my dismissal.” Abdirizak was as Foreign Affairs Minister for a year and was the third foreign affairs minister since President Farmaajo took office in 2017.
The firing of the head of the Puntland Security Forces (PSF) has led to a month-long crisis in the northeastern state of Somalia. President Deni of Puntland fired the head of PSF, Mohamud Osman Diyano, around 20 November 2021 and appointed Brigadier General Mohamed Amin Haji as the new director. The firing led troops allied to the fired PSF head Diyano to break ranks and stage a mutiny in Bosaso town. To make matters worse, the troops took weapons and military vehicles when they defected from PSF. The troops and clan allied to Diyano said that the dismissal by President Deni was a “breach of the rule of engagement, military law and ethics.” From the onset, the Mayor of Bosaso, Abdullahi Dero Dile, spoke to the media, calling for calm between the two sides. The Mayor said that more Puntland forces were increasingly joining Diyano’s allied troops. He also called on Diyano to transfer power to the new director. Meanwhile, President Deni has maintained that Diyano has been fired and is no longer the PSF director. The tensions reached an all-time high between 22-24 December, when both sides exchanged fire. The troops allied to Diyano are accused of firing mortars into town, killing civilians. The skirmish took place outside the PSF compound General Diyano occupies in Bosaso. The locals estimate that at least ten people have been killed, and another 40 people have been injured. A ceasefire was brokered by President Deni of Puntland but has already been breached by both sides. Though the case, the fighting has been minimal. The crisis in Bosaso profoundly concerns international actors. With the support of the US and other international actors, the PSF was created to fight Al-Shabaab and Islamic State in Somalia (ISS). The PSF has been relatively successful in targeting Al-Shabaab and ISS bases in Puntland State. The crisis is concerning since the PSF has not been focusing on degrading the terrorist group capabilities. The US is concerned that the terrorist groups will take advantage of the crisis and use the opportunity to increase their capabilities. The US has sent commanders from AFRICOM to Puntland to attempt to solve the issue between the two factions. In the December clashes, the US embassy tweeted, “We urge an immediate end to the hostilities in Bossaso and a return to dialogue to find a negotiated, peaceful solution. Continued fighting will only inflict further harm on Bosaso and its people.”
A months-long investigation by Somalia’s Attorney General and the Armed Forces Court chief prosecutor finally released the surprising findings on the controversial case of a disappeared intelligence officer, Ikraan Tahiil. In June 2021, a female National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) agent, Ikraan Tahiil, disappeared near the NISA headquarters in Mogadishu. The investigation found that; 1) NISA worked effectively and did not impede the investigation into the disappearance of Ikraan, and 2) NISA was not involved in the disappearance of NISA agent Ikraan, The findings generated mixed reactions in Somalia, with those opposed to the Farmaajo government vehemently claiming that the investigation was a sham. The family of the disappeared NISA agent also rejected the findings of the AG. Before the findings were released, NISA had issued a statement claiming that their investigation had uncovered that Ikraan was kidnapped and killed by the extremist group Al-Shabaab, which they denied.
The Lower House elections in Galmudug and the South-West State of Somalia marred with controversy. In Galmudug, the interim National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) head was elected as a member of parliament. NISA head Yasin Farey, who is a close ally of president Farmaajo, won seat number HOP#67. Yasin Farey received 65 votes, while his opponent only secured 20 votes. Before the election took place, former NISA commander Abdirahman Tuuryaare, an anti-president Farmaajo candidate, was allegedly barred from running for the seat. The second controversy was that the constitution states that any candidate running for office must resign from their government position at least seven days before the election, which did not take place in Farey’s case. In South West State, the former speaker of the regional parliament, Mohamed Sheikh Osman Jawari, was barred by the federal election committee for running for HOP#103. The decision by the state-level election committee to allow the staunch anti-Farmaajo candidate to run for office further led to confusion. On election day, Jawari was not allowed to run for the seat. The opposition candidates and Mr Jawari lodged complaints to the resolution committee.
Elections for six Lower House Members of Parliament for the Somaliland caucus took place in Mogadishu. Mohamed Abdi Hayir Mareye, a long-serving MP and former Information Minister was reelected. On a positive note, two women, Fadumo Hassan Ali and Aminia Omar Jama won two seats. The remaining two seats were won by Mohamed Harun Abdullahi and Ahmed Osman Dirie.

In the regional administrative capital of Baidoa, South West State delegates reelected four Lower House Members of Parliament. Some of the winners of the seats include the federal parliamentary speaker Mohamed Mursal Sheikh Abdirahman, Fawzia Mohamed Sheikh, Aden Mohamed Nur “saroan-soor.”

Following allegations of fraud, Prime Minister Roble assured the public and international community of his commitment to ensuring transparent, free and fair elections. He promised to address the expressed concerns and to “correct the mistakes” “The Prime Minister is taking into account the concerns expressed about the transparency of the elections by the Council of Presidential Candidates, the concerns of the Somali people and the international community, and promised that the National Consultative Council will convene to work together to ensure that the country’s elections are credible and to correct any mistakes,” the statement read in part.

The chairperson of the Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT), Mohamed Hassan “Irro”, has opposed calls from the opposition and other stakeholders to cancel the Lower House parliamentary elections. “I do not see any reason to postpone the elections. The elections have been delayed many times before. It is not in the interests of the country nor the government,” he said.

The opposition presidential candidates called on the Electoral Disputes Resolution Committee (EDRC) to investigate fraud claims in the South West State and Galmudug Lower House Parliamentary elections earlier in the week. The outgoing Speaker of the  Upper House of Parliament also called for the Somaliland caucus election to be postponed as he also alleged fraud in the procedure during the election. In response, the EDRC said that they will only “recognise complaints made through official channels…not those made through the media.” The committee stated that they were investigating the claims of fraud that led to the election of interim NISA head Yasin Farey in Galmudug and annulled the results of the two disputed seats in the South West State election.

The breakaway president of Somaliland, Bihi Muse, issued a decree banning its citizens from participating in Somali politics. He said any citizen found to be participating in the ongoing elections in Somalia would be found guilty of treason. The decree said, “Anyone or group, whether it be a government, civilian, organisation, party, intellectual, traditional elder, artists, as well as the various sections of the society, who participates in the Somalia politics, will be charged with treason as per the law of Somaliland.” 

The decree came when a well-known elder based in Somaliland travelled to Mogadishu to meet delegates involved in the election of Members of Parliament for the Somaliland caucus. Since 1991, Somaliland has maintained its independence from Somalia.

The opposition presidential candidates, the Council of Presidential candidates (CPC), have reiterated their previous calls to suspend ongoing elections in Somalia. In a statement, the CPC issued the following recommendations to help the election process have more credibility. There recommendations are, 1) To convene a national consultation conference on the elections to end ‘election rigging’ and malpractices and to resolve complaints about the process, 2) To correct the election guidelines, it is important to issue the official list of the 135 clan elders as well as the clan committees to select the delegates to elect each parliamentary seat, 3) To ensure that the delegates to elect the MPs are officially selected by the clan elders, with their names registered and released publicly, 4) To deploy Somali and international election observers as well as the independent media to all polling stations to ensure credibility and transparency of the voting, 5) To rescind the outcomes of all rigged seats and hold re-elections, 6) A unified election timetable should be released after the revision of all the flaws in the ongoing electoral process, with strict election timetables ought to be issued, 7) To allow former MPs to be exempt from the rigorous verification process, and to enable all candidates’ equal opportunity to interact with the electoral delegates, and 8) Not to transfer any seats from other polling constituencies to Mogadishu to ensure transparency of the election process.

The Somali Federal Election Implementation Team (FEIT) issued a stern 48-hour ultimatum to Jubaland, Puntland, and HirShabelle states to begin the electoral process. The commission told the regional states that if they do not comply, they will have to explain to the public why they failed to begin the process. 

Jubaland immediately complied with the FEIT decree. The regional state announced the election of 14 Lower House seats. However, 48 hours after the deadline passed, Puntland and HirShabelle state did not adhere to the ultimatum without any repercussions. The FEIT issued another call for the two regional states to begin the elections a week later. 

A delegation of staff members representing the US Senate Foreign Relations, House Foreign Affairs and House Appropriation and Conservation Committees and other senior policy advisors travelled to Somaliland. While there, they met with Somaliland President Muse Bihi, where they discussed a wide range of issues to strengthen US-Somaliland relations. 

In a shocking move, the Somali Prime Minister, Hussein Roble, fired seven members of the federal Dispute Resolution Committee and appointed their replacements. The fired members, including the chairperson of the committee, Hussein Mohamed Mohamud, were accused of bias and not correctly handling the election disputes. The dismissed members of the Dispute Resolution Committee include Hussein Laki Mohamud, Ahmed Sa’id Samatar, Mohamed Farah Hersi, Nimo Ahmed Abdi, Ali Mohamud Seeko, Abdirahman Mohamed Ali, and Mohamed Iise Heybe. They were replaced by Ismail Mohamed Ahmed, Fardowsa Mataan Buule, Ayanle Ahmed Abdulle, Bashir Ahmed Yusuf, Hassan Ahmed Dhihisow, Ahmed Barre Mohamed, and Mohamed Awil Warsame. 

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