Somali Civil War


Somalia, Horn of Africa

The Somali conflict is a multifaceted dispute triggered by the fall of President Said Barre regime on 27 January 1991. General Barre’s dictatorship was synonymous with extreme brutality, suppression of opposition groups, both nationalistic and Islamic, and exacerbation of interclan rivalries (clannism).  By 1988, the dissatisfaction with the government led to nationalist groups throughout the country, with Northern Somalia (modern-day Somaliland) leading the charge, to attack government and military posts, prompting the First Somali Civil war (1988-1991).

The fall of Said Barre’s regime and the Somali Civil War created a power vacuum in which nationalist and Islamic groups, warlords, clan and sub-clan militias and other actors aimed to carve out swathes of territory for their own governance. Subsequently, regional and international institutions initiated various peace and reconciliation processes in an attempt to create a stable and robust federal government, with various degrees of success. The inter clan rivalries have fuelled the tension between the Federal government and the regional states, making the consensus and state-building, as well as peacebuilding, process strenuous. The chaos resulted in the declaration of independence by Somaliland in 1991, though still not recognised by any nation in the world, and Somalia maintains its authority over the northern territory. In 1998, the Puntland region in Northern Somalia declared partial autonomy, meaning that they reserve the right to operate independently but still can be part of the Federal Government of Somalia. Conflict as a result of both internal and external factors has resulted in more than a million deaths, with many more fleeing to neighbouring countries.

In the early 2000s, there were renewed efforts to rebuild the Somali central government, which involved a dual state-building and peacebuilding process. The renewed efforts, spearheaded by the regional institution Intergovernmental Authority in Development (IGAD), led to the signing of the Arta Declaration in 2000 which addressed representation in government, a significant obstacle to the Somali peace process. The declaration asserted that all future Somali governments would use the 4:5 formula which states that the four main clans – Dorad, Hawiye, Dir (includes the Isaaq) and Rahanweym (Digil-Mirifle) will have equal representation in government while the other smaller clans will share the rest of the representation. Though Somali politicians, with the support of the regional institutions, attempted to address clan grievances, the transitional governments – the Transitional National Government and Assembly (TNG/A) (2000-2004) and Transitional Federal Government/Parliament (TFG/P) (2004-2012) – were plagued with inefficiency, infighting and corruption. Additionally, the insecurity in the country forced the President, Cabinet and the majority of the Members of Parliament to operate from Kenya, which contributed to their inability to govern.

Despite the challenges brought upon by Al-Shabaab, an insurgent group terrorising the country since 2007, the TFG/P managed to create a new constitution which effectively led to the first election since 1969. On 20 August 2012, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) was born under the leadership of Hassan Sheikh Mohamed (2012 -2016). Similar to the transitional governments, the FGS aimed to stabilise the country through building a national consensus between the government and the newly defined regional states – Jubaland, Puntland, HirShabelle, South West, Galmudug and Somaliland.  Each regional state, which is representative of the traditional clan and sub-clan territorial boundaries, was tasked with creating spaces where clan rivalries and grievances could be addressed.

Since the creation of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in 2012, each federal government has focused on creating a cohesive and inclusive political space that takes into account clan politics and alliances, as well as the threat of Al-Shabaab. One of the biggest obstacles inhibiting Somalia from moving forward cohesively is the role of clan interest, i.e. clannism, in politics. The majority of the people in power propel the interests of the clan and sub-clan rather than the interest of a united Somalia. As a result, politicians are always sceptical of the intentions of others, and therefore, unable to make significant changes. The inability for the FGS and the regional governments to work towards the common goal of creating a prosperous Somalia, fuelled by lack of trust and clan politics, is another major obstacle. Finally, the failure to put clan politics aside for the betterment of the country has slowed down security sector reform which calls for the integration of clan and sub-clan militia into the armed forces.

As to date, the FGS must find a way to balance the interest of the state and the sub-clans while tackling the threat of Al-Shabaab, and to a lesser extent, the Islamic State in Somalia (ISS).  Refer to the Al-Shabaab and ISS pages to understand the security angle of the Somali conflict.

"The people of Somalia just do not have a voice. They are to me the most forgotten people in the world."

K’naan - Singer/songwriter/poet

Key Facts

12.3 Million

Population

1 Million

Deaths

Ongoing since

2007

Where: Somalia, Horn of Africa

Dates of conflict:  1988-1991, 1991 – 2000, 2007 – present  

Refugees/Internally Displaced Peoples (IDPs) – 1.1 million 

The Key Actors

The Situation

Classification:  Civil war, Clannism, Humanitarian Crisis, Federalism vs. Centralised type of government 

 

Current situation:

Prime Minister Hussein Roble has been meeting with the regional presidents, international partners and security forces to implement the historic 27 May electoral agreement. He is expected to make progress in time for the next election benchmark, the election of the Upper House of Parliament scheduled for 23 July. So far, he, and his dispute resolution committee, travelled to Gedo region, Jubaland state to find a solution to the disagreement between the pro-President Farmaajo administration in Gedo and the Jubaland Administration. The PM is also meeting with the MPs from Somaliland after the committee in charge of overseeing the election for its MPs in Mogadishu split into two camps – pro-Speaker of the Upper House and Pro-Deputy Prime Minister.  Finally, Prime Minister Roble has met with the committee composed of police, military and AMISOM officials tasked with securing election polling stations, which are expected to be targeted by al-Shabaab.

Worsening

Adviser’s comments: Prime Minister Roble has his hand full as he ensures that the regional states adhere to the election schedule while he resolves the ongoing disputes. Every time he seems to have made leeway to solve one issue, another issue arises somewhere else. Due to this pattern, it is unclear whether the election benchmark to start the election process for the Upper House of Parliament on 23 July will take place on time, or there will be another delay. The election process is also hindered by Al-Shabaab’s intentions to disrupt the elections, seen recently with the increased number of attacks in Mogadishu, the capital city, and Galmudug state.

Timeline of the crisis

1885 – 1969: From colonisation to Somali Civil War    

By 1892, Somalia was colonised by French (Djibouti), Britain (British Somaliland and Northern Kenya), Italy (Somalia) and the Abyssinian Empire (Ogaden region in Ethiopia). In 1945, Italy lost Italian Somaliland to the British as a consequence of being on the losing side of World War Two.  The combined territory is hence a force known as British Somaliland.  By 1949, Britain relinquished its control of the area, and British Somaliland officially became the Trust Territory of Somaliland, a United Nations Trusteeship, under Italian Administration. On 1 July 1960, Somalia gained its independence, and Aden Abdullahi Osman Daar became President until 1969.

1963 – 1967: Shifta War commences between Kenya and Northern Province People’s Progressive Party (NPPPP). 

NPPPP, an ethnically Somali political party, was supported by the Somali government. The NPPPP wanted the northern part of Kenya, which is mainly ethnically Somalis, to secede to join Somalia. In 1967, Somalia and Kenya signed a Memorandum of Understanding, ensuring that Somalia would not arm armed groups in Kenya. In response to Somalia’s actions in the Shifta war, Kenya and Ethiopia signed a Mutual Defense Pact in 1964.  This was necessary at the time since Somalia and Ethiopia were also fighting and conducting cross-border attacks in each other’s territory. 

1969 – 1991: General Said Barre stages a bloodless military coup to become President. 

Said Barre comes to power soon after the assassination of the Somali President Abdirashid Ali Shermarke. His 22-year dictatorship is characterised by; 1) the marginalisation of all clan that does not belong to the Ogaden clan family, and 2) oppression of nationalist and Islamic groups. 

July 1977- March 1978: Ogaden War between Somalia and Ethiopia over the disputed Ogaden region in Ethiopia, which is inhabited by mainly ethnically Somali people  

Following the disastrous war, the Said Barre regime signed an agreement with Ethiopia that both sides pledged not to aid any opposition groups operating in their respective countries. Ethiopia was supporting the Somali nationalist groups operating from their territory while Somalia funded the ethnically Somali groups operating in the Ogaden region.  At the end of the disastrous war, few soldiers attempted to stage a coup but failed. As a result, 17 military commanders accused of being organisers of the attempted coup against Said Barre are publicly executed. 

By 1988, the conditions within Somalia had worsened significantly that the Somali National Movement (SNM) began attacking government and military posts in Northern Somalia, initiating the Somali First Civil War. While SNM fought in the North, the United Somali Congress (USC), in coordination with other smaller groups, fought against General Barre in Mogadishu. During this four-year conflict, over 300,000 Somalis died as a result of war-related casualties, hunger, and disease.

The pressure from the United Somali Congress (USC), in coordination with other smaller groups, ultimately forced President Barre to flee outside Somalia.

Refer to Pre Crisis timeline to know more about Siad Barre regime

With the Somali Civil war intensifying, the leaders of the Somali National Movement, one of the main parties against the Said Barre dictatorship, declared independence from Somalia. Between then and 2000, the Somalilanders engaged in peace conferences with key stakeholders in the country as they attempted to bring peace among the warring parties in the self-declared state.  In a decade, the Somalilanders stakeholders agreed on a constitution which underwent a referendum on 31 May 2001. The government noted that 99.7% of all eligible voters took to the polling stations to vote in the referendum. 

Though Somaliland is not recognised by any country in the world, the country enjoys bilateral ties with many European and African countries. Access to the red sea makes the country desirable to many countries in the West.

The sense of victory over defeating General Said Barre was short-lived since the coalitions created to defeat him collapsed due to inter-clan conflicts. When the alliance between the two most influential leaders, General Aideed and Ali Ahmed, who were co-founders of the United Somali Congress (USC), broke out, fighting between them resulted in the ultimate Battle for Mogadishu. The fighting between the two parties caused the United Nations to intervene. Eventually, General Aideed declared himself President, but it was short-lived because he was shot by one of his supporters.

The conflict between the General Aideed and Ali Mahdi in Mogadishu caused the United Nations to intervene through a Security Council Resolution. Through this process, the United Task Force in Somalia (UNITAF), a US-led military operation, was deployed in 1993. The most notable confrontation was the Black Hawk Down incident where suspected General Aideed supporters shot down a U.S. military plane. The event led to the death of 18 U.S. troops who were then paraded around the city as a sign of victory over the Americans. The U.S. military immediately abandoned their mission in Somalia following the incident. A combination of the Black Hawk Down incident and the deaths of other U.N. peacekeepers forced the U.N. to begin the process of withdrawing personnel from Somalia.

Following in the footsteps of Somaliland, Puntland regional state of Somalia declares that it would operate as a semi-autonomous state within Somalia. The declaration came after a three-month conference in Garowe, the capital of the regional state, with major local stakeholders in the regional state. As a semi-autonomous state, Puntland, unlike Somaliland, is not seeking international recognition and is part of the Federal States of Somalia.  

Somaliland and Puntland have been fighting over the Sool and Sanaag regions that border the two states. Each side claims the area is a part of their territory. As a result, the troops of the two side engage in gun battles that sometimes lead to the death of civilians. Each side has stationed troops in the disputed area, as well as elected regional governors.

The new millennium brought about a renewed effort to re-establish a Somali Federal Government. Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a Horn and East African regional institution, spearheaded the processes. In 2000, the Arta declaration, the basis of all subsequent Somali governments, was signed in Djibouti. The declaration asserted that all future Somali governments would use the 4:5 formula which states that the four main clans – Dorad, Hawiye, Dir (includes the Isaaq) and Rahanweym (Digil-Mirifle)) would have equal representation in government while the other smaller clans will share the rest of the representation.  The Arta Declaration also established the Transitional National Government/Assembly (TNG/A). Both the TNG and TNA proved to be ineffective to bring any incremental change as it was riddled with corruption, anti-Ethiopian rhetoric and was unable to extend its authority outside the capital of Mogadishu.

Following the collapse of the transitional government, which was also created through the Arta Declaration, the Eldoret Conference created the Somali Transitional Federal Government/Parliament (TFG/P). The TFG/P governed Somalia until the creation of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in 2012.

The United Islamic Courts (UIC) is a predecessor of al-Shabaab. UIC was formed when it splintered from Al-Ittihad al-Islamiyah (AIAI), a relatively moderate Islamic group. When UIC was established, they immediately had an instant connection with the business community in Mogadishu. The business community believed in the UIC’s ability to maintain peace and security in the city since they did not charge taxes and other forms of payment like the other warlords who controlled different neighbourhoods in Mogadishu. The business community did not mind the Islamic rhetoric as they saw their version of Islamism as more moderate compared to other groups. By 2006, UIC had grown in popularity and military strength. Following their military build-up, UIC challenged the authority of the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The two sides fought for the control of Mogadishu in which UIC won, forcing the TFG to relocate the seat of government to Baidoa. Since UIC was created with remnants of AIAI, the Ethiopian government was concerned over its rise. By December 2006, the Ethiopian military had invaded Somalia, with the support of the U.S., to oust the UIC from power, which only took a month.

The African Mission in Somalia is a peacebuilding mission approved and sanctioned by the African Union and United Nations. Following the approval in February, Uganda and Burundi had deployed troops to support the Somali Transitional Federal Government’s (TFG) efforts to stabilise the country.

Note: Analysts claim that one of the reasons why AMISOM was approved quickly was due to the U.S. supporting the invasion of Somalia by Ethiopian troops to remove UIC from power. Ethiopian troops need an exit strategy following the defeat of UIC since they were technically breaking the 1992 U.N. arms embargo.

After the fall of the Islamic Courts with the help of Ethiopia, and later the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops), Somalia was once again forced to restart its state-building process. One of the biggest tasks that the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) needed to do was to build coalitions with the warlords and other clan leaders (i.e. non-state actors) that had gained territory between the fall of Said Barre in 1991 and the rise/fall of Islamic Courts. In the political front, many of the non-state actors wanted political positions, which for the most part, the TFG leadership agreed. The continuously changing alliances in Somali politics remained the major setback for Somalia. The changing alliances that no president has re-elected for a second term, no prime minister finished their term of office as Parliament would vote them out. 

The second major obstacle that the TFG government needed to accomplish was to move the seat of government to Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. Between 2000-2007, though the seat of government was Mogadishu, most of the members of Parliament (M.P.s) and top leadership lived in Nairobi. When the Islamic Courts took over the Mogadishu, the remaining M.P.s moved the seat of government to Baidoa, another major city in Somalia. The new plan by the TFG is to move the seat of government back to Mogadishu with the help of AMISOM troops who protect government officials, and the rest of the M.P.s operating from Nairobi had to move back to Somalia. By 2010, the TFG was operating from the capital though al-Shabaab operatives assassinated M.P.s and conducted major attacks on government buildings.

One of the significant accomplishments that occurred despite the Somali conflict raging on is the creation of the Somali Federal Government (SFG).  The creation of FGS is seen as a significant step in the stabilisation efforts for Somalia, which would be made complete when the threat of al-Shabaab is reduced. One of the essential elements of the new constitution is that it made Somalia into a federalist state which created the federal states of HirShabelle, Puntland, Jubaland, South West, Galmudug and Somaliland. Naming Somaliland as one of the regional states of Somalia fuelled further issues between Somaliland and Somalia since Somaliland continues to maintain that they are independent of Somalia. 

The first president under the new constitution was Hassan Sheikh Mohamed who served the office from 20 August 2012 to 16 February 2017.

Following a meeting with federal politicians and politicians from Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo regions, who gathered in the port city of Kismayo, Jubaland was unilaterally declared as a new Federal Member State. Delegates at the conference declared Ahmed Mohamed Islaan “Madobe”, as the new President of the state. The FGS quickly objected to the appointment of Ahmed Madobe as the President of Jubaland. The FGS stated that the process was not constitutional and did not engage with the Somali government in the process.  Jubaland state quickly gained the support from Kenya, which borders the federal state and is part of the regional peacekeeping force.  

Ahmed Madobe was a former leader of Al-Shabaab when his militia Ras Kamboni Brigade joined the extremist group. By the beginning of 2013, following talks with the Somali government, Ras Kamboni Brigade defected and joined the government forces. 

The objection from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) about the process of the election of Ahmed Madobe as President of Jubaland State resulted in bloody clashes in Jubaland. 

Ethiopia brokered a deal between all parties that saw the formation of an Interim Juba Administration (IJA). The key stakeholders agreed to control key revenue generating sources, i.e. seaport and airport jointly.

The northern regional state of Puntland announced that they have cut off all ties with the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). The Puntland administration accused the FGS of refusing to share power and foreign aid with the region in line with the country’s federal structure, as well as not doing enough in its fight against al-Shabaab. Puntland would only resume its relationship with Mogadishu if the government respects the country’s federal structure.

South West Administration, one of the five regional governments, is re-established as a regional state with Barawa as its capital but later moved to Baidoa.  The re-establishment of the S.W. the regional state comes after a convention in Baidoa between federal government of Somalia (FGS) officials and local representatives. After three months of discussion with stakeholders, Madobe Nunow was elected as President of the newly founded S.W. State.  

On 1 April 2002, Hassan Muhammad Nur Shatigadud, established the South West Administration. The administration lasted until 2005 when it was dissolved. Hassan Nur was the leader of the Rahanweyn Resistance Army (RRA), one of the major influential clans and militia in the country.  In 2005, the administration was dissolved when the founder Hassan Nur agreed to be part of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG).

As soon as South West State was founded, the regional government and its neighbour, Jubaland, entered a row over the boundaries of the regional States.  The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) initially took sides in the conflict, saying that some of the districts (Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba) that S.W. had claimed to be part of their territory were already allocated to Jubaland regional government in the Addis Ababa agreement.  After months of heated internal politics in the regional state, with the support from the Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, South West agreed to relinquish the three disputed districts back to Jubaland. It took six months for the agreement between South West State and Jubaland to be finalised.   

Somali President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed congratulated clan elders and other local leaders for agreeing to terms to create the Galmudug regional state. Following months of discussion and reconciliation conferences, a landmark agreement between delegates from the regional state of Galmudug, Himan and Heb Administration and Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jamaah (ASWJ) Administration. The three parties agreed to unite and form an inclusive regional government. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) appointed a committee of FGS Cabinet members to support the process of the creation of the state. 

To ensure that the process of unification goes smoothly, all three administrations agreed to hand over command of its military forces to the federal police. Himan and Heb Administration followed through with the agreement while Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jamaah (ASWJ) Administration withdrew from the conference and refused to withdraw its troops from Dhusamareb. ASWJ argued they lack representation in the new government. Interestingly, the capital of Galmudug was moved to Dhusamareb from Adado to appease the ASWJ. Tensions between Galmudug state and ASWJ reached an all-time high when troops from each side engaged in fierce gun battles in Abudwaak town. Local media reported that at least 20 people were killed in the two-day fighting. ASWJ returned to the negotiation table after intervention from the Somali international community. 

Once again, the Puntland regional state has cut ties with the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). This time, Puntland president Dr Abdiweli Mohamed Ali Gaas noted that his administration strongly opposes the creation of the Galmudug. He further states that he is against the creation because “it runs counter to the constitution.” He added that he is in dismay over the involvement of international envoys in an “agreement that went beyond the clauses and articles in the Federal constitution.”

Three months later, Puntland, with the support from the U.N. Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the E.U., agreed to restore their relationship with the federal government. The agreement with the Somali government assured Puntland that the creation of the Galmudug state would not affect its borders. The agreement also stipulated that there will be an even distribution of international assistance. Further discussion over the provisions of the constitution by a parliamentary committee representing Puntland and the FGS.    

Lengthy negotiations between Hiraan and Shabelle regions in Somalia to create HirShabelle regional state conclude. The negotiations end with the election of President in which Ali Abdulahi Osable becomes President of the regional state. He was elected by 90 parliamentarians which 60 of whom voted for Osable.  

Obsable’s government immediately had problems. He was unable to create a cabinet 45 days after being sworn into power. Following a two-month extension given by the regional Parliament granted, president Osable created his 23-person Cabinet. The delays in the process was a result of opposition from some clan enders in the Hiraan region that opposed the President’s pick.

Abdullahi Farmaajo was elected as the President of Somalia following the parliamentary election in December 2016/January 2017. 

Before becoming President, Farmaajo served as Prime Minister for eight months during Sharif Sheikh Ahmed’s presidency (Jan 2009 – August 2012). His short stint as Prime Minister was met with protest as thousands of civilians, soldiers and legislators did not want the President to accept his resignation. His resignation came due to the pressure from the regional and international community at the Kampala Accord meetings that wanted the technocratic Cabinet to be re-composed.

The international community welcomed the election of Mohamed Abdi Waare. U.N. Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) noted that voting “took place in an open and public process.”   

The Somali Peace Building Fund aims to facilitate youth political empowerment by enabling Somali young women and men to engage in meaningful engagement in governance, peacebuilding and reconciliation. This fund is crucial since two-thirds of the Somali population is under the age of 25. 

Note: The Somali Peace Building Fund is part of the broader U.N. Peacebuilding Fund (PBF) which currently supports more than 120 projects in 25 countries.

As part of its mandate, UNSOM facilitates discussion among key stakeholders in the various regional states. This time, their services were taken to Galkayo, Galmudug state where they facilitated discussions among local leaders, police and community leaders aimed to establish a community forum and joint police community action plans. The UN-led process hoped to safeguard the ceasefire between two regional states, Puntland and Galmudug who are fighting over boundaries of their respective territories. Following the discussions, participants partook in training on community policing and leadership.

The November 2018 elections for the presidency in the South West State was problematic from the very beginning. The incumbent, Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, was showing signs that he would not relinquish the position of President easily. Twin bombings in the capital city of S.W. State, Baidoa, in October led to the death of two presidential hopefuls. To make matters worse, 15 members of the election committee resigned from their post, claiming that the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) was interfering with the local process. As a result, the election was postponed by ten days from 18 November. 

The second obstacle for the South West election was the opposition from the FGS for the former al-Shabaab leader, Mukhtar Robow, from running for office. The former deputy of Al-Shabaab defected to the Somali government in 2017, five years after leaving al-Shabaab due to disputes with then leader of the extremist group, Ahmed Godane. He was very popular among the people. His popularity led to his arrest, causing major protests in Baidoa. The protest led to the death of at least 12 civilians, a regional member of Parliament (M.P.) and dozens more injured.  The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) said that Robow is unable to run for local government as he is subject to U.N. Security Council sanction, as well as being a security threat. Robow has not been released from government-imposed house arrest in Mogadishu. 

With Mukhtar Robow arrested and unable to partake in the election, a hurried election took place with Somalia’s State Minister for Trade, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed “LaftaGareen” winning the election. This election was heavily criticised as analysts saw the election as a fraudulent attempt by the FGS to ensure a supporter of the government is in power. 

Incumbent President, Ahmed Islam Madobe, was re-elected as the President of Jubaland regional state. He won more than two-thirds of the votes cast by local elders, with the only female candidate winning the remainder of the votes. In his acceptance speech, he said, “I’m ready to hold dialogue with the opposition and address any issues they may have.” 

Some of the candidates boycotted the elections, saying that the process was rigged to ensure that Madobe wins. Before the election took place, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) announced that they would not accept the outcome of the poll, calling the process “not free and fair.” 

At the same time, one of the candidates and a staunch opponent of President Madobe, Serrar organised a separate poll in which he was elected as President. 

In an escalation of tension between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and its regional member state, Jubaland, the FGS has blocked all entry to the port city of Kismayo. The authorities ordered the closure of air, land and sea borders for a week. The blockade comes a day after the announcement of the contentious election results in Jubaland which saw incumbent President Ahmed Islam Madobe winning a second term. 

Tensions increased further when in September, the FGS banned all direct flights to the port city of Kismayo and the capital of Jubaland state. The government has called for all official and regional planes to stop in Mogadishu before heading to the port city.

Galmudug state reconciliation conference begins in Dhusamareb. The reconciliation conference is a Somali-owned process where stakeholders in a regional state come together to address issues affecting the state while also choosing representatives to part of the technical electoral commission. One of the contentious issues is when the election should take place. The current President of Galmudug state, Ahmed Dualle Gelle Haaf insists that since he signed a power-sharing agreement with Sufi group Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a (ASW) in December 2017, the election should take place a year after the intended date of December 2020.  The federal government of Somalia disagrees and is pushing for the regional election to take place as expected in December 2020.  

At the U.N. General Assembly meeting, Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo noted the role the country has been playing in the socio-economic development of the Horn of Africa. He highlighted how cooperation between the countries in the region has only strengthened political stability and social and cultural connectivity. Moreover, he spoke of the upcoming 2020/21 elections, which they aim to be the first universal suffrage election since 1969. 

President Farmajo also urged the international community to continue to support Somalia to ensure the tangible progress does not fade away. They cautioned that without security, all the gains could be diminished. “With the help of our international partners, we are striving to rid ourselves of the last pockets of violent extremism and terrorism,” he said, stressing that the task would not be easy, especially given the “violence, cowardice and opportunistic guerrilla tactics of Al Shabaab.”

More than six Somali opposition parties, including two parties belonging to former presidents of Somalia, have joined to form a new political alliance, the Forum for National Parties (FNP). In a live press briefing, former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed (2009-2012), who leads Himilo Qaran Party, was announced to head the NFP. Former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed (2012-2017), who leads the UPD party, also joined the NFP.  

The fourth annual Somalia Partnership Forum in Mogadishu brought together over 200 representatives from the Somali government, private sector and international community. Topics discussed included planned universal suffrage elections, increased trade relationships, and security.  The forum produced the Mutual Accountability Framework (MAF) which called for Somalia to adopt the electoral law before 2020 and pass the new constitution by June 2020. The adoption of the new constitution should outline precise functions and powers of the federal government and the regional states.  The MAF also calls for a national reconciliation process to continue and to ensure that the quotas of women and youth in Parliament to be upheld. 

Somalia’s Deputy Prime Minister Mahdi Muhammad Ghulaid said; “We are under no illusion to underestimate the myriad challenges ahead of the country’s full recovery, which demands concerted political and financial commitment from both local stakeholders and international partners.

The U.S. embassy in Somalia announced that they have reopened its Embassy in Mogadishu. The U.S. closed its Embassy amid the civil war in 1991 after dissatisfied militias toppled dictator Said Barre’s regime. U.S. ambassador to Somalia said, “Today we reaffirm the relations between the American people and the Somali people and our two nations. It is a significant and historic day that reflects Somalia’s progress in recent years, and another step forward in regularising U.S. diplomatic engagement in Mogadishu since recognising the federal government of Somalia in 2013.”

Incumbent Jubaland president Ahmed Islam Madobe finally held is inauguration ceremony for the controversial election in August where he claims he won the election. The August election was disputed by both the international community and locals alike due to the irregularities. Locals claimed that President Madobe paid the majority of the M.P.s and elders who are tasked with electing the President. 

U.N. agencies – U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), World Food Program (WFP), U.N. Children’s Fund (UNICEF), U.N. Refugee Agency (UNHRC) U.N. Support Mission to Somalia (UNSOM) – are scaling up their efforts to help flood-affected Somalis. The U.N. agencies have been sending aid filed planes to affected areas where they have distributed portable water, hygiene kits, medical supplies and foodstuffs. Additionally, 2.58 Million dollars have been raised by UNHCR for flood victims. 

Somalia has been hit with devastating floods that have made hundreds of thousands Internally Displaced Persons. U.N. estimates that 370,000 Somalis have been displaced. The most affected town. Also, at least 25 have been killed and 47 others injured since the flooding begun at the end of October. Beletweyne (Beledweyne) is 85% submerged in water, according to the U.N. 

Qatar sent 88 tons of various aid including medicine, blankets, mosquito nets, cooking utensils, gloves, water filters, iron and plastic jerricans. In addition to sending aid, the Ambassador of both countries, accompanied by Somali government officials, made a state visit to the most affected town, Beletweyne (Beledweyne), which is in HirShabelle region state. The ambassadors also met with region president, Mohamed Abdi “Waare.”

The Somali government thanked both Qatar and Turkey for their efforts to help affected victims.

The Somali Democratic Council (SDC), a lobby group in the U.S., wrote to the U.N. accusing Ethiopian troops of preventing Jubaland Vice President from visiting the city of Belet-Hawo, sometimes referred to as Bula Hawa, in Gedo region, part of the Jubaland state. “Mr Secretary General! We the Somali Democratic Council would like to make you aware of the grave and deeply disturbing events that are unfolding in the Jubbaland State of Somalia where non-Amisom Ethiopian troops are wreaking unimaginable havoc by detaining duly elected officials in the cities of Beled-Hawo, Dolow, and Luuq [all in Gedo],” reads the letter signed by Abdikarim A. Omar, the council’s chairman. In the letter, SDC claims that the incident is “a clear and unmistakable invasion” by the Ethiopian military.

Somalia’s Jubaland Vice President, Mohamed Sayyid Adan, escapes to the Kenyan border town of Madera. He claims that Ethiopian forces have stopped his movement, adding that the troops had stopped him from entering the Somali town of Belet Hawo. Unnamed sources say that his and his entourage’s trip to Kenya was facilitated by Kenyan Defense forces (KDF). The KDF has not commented on the claims.

A U.N. Monitoring Group report alleges Ethiopian president Abiy Ahmed fanning instability in Somalia. The report says that Ethiopia has continued to play a role in domestic politics, whether through funding or military support.  The opposition group in Somalia, Forum for National Parties (FNP), agreed with the findings, adding that they have reports of non-AMISOM Ethiopian troops crossing the border in Somalia. “The Ethiopian National Defence Forces have been repeatedly involved in illegal activities whose outcome could at best undermine the fragile state-building and nascent democratic processes in Somalia,” the statement said in part.    

Ethiopian Ambassador to Kenya, Meles Alem, dismissed the claims, saying that the allegations do not hold water. “One of the pillars of Ethiopian foreign policy is non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. That is our track record,” Meles said. “As a good neighbour, we have only played constructive roles.”

Head of U.N. mission in Somalia, while speaking to members of the National Independent Election Commission, reiterated global partners desire to back the democratic exercise during the upcoming 2020/2021. Somali elections are supposed to take place in December 2020 and February 2021

The international community in Somalia, which includes the African Union, European Union, USA and other stakeholders, congratulated the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) for reaching an agreement with stakeholders in Galmudug. The regional state of Galmudug could not go through the election period until the FGS could create an agreement with Alhu Sunnah Wal-Jama’a (ASWJ). This moderate Sufi group has been essential in the fight against al-Shabaab. The two sides could not agree on how many seats ASWJ would get in the new Parliament which is meant to be elected in late December.

After many delays and disagreements about allocations of government seats, Galmudug has three governments with three presidents. The FGS process, recognised by the international community, saw Ahmed Abdi Kariye “QoorQoor” elected President. Disputing the elections, the influential leader of the Sufi group, Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a (ASWJ), Sheikh Shari, declared himself President. The former President, Ahmed Duale “Haaf,” refused to cede power.

The Somali Parliament passed the historical election bill which was later signed into law by the Somali President. The election bill calls for the first one-man, one-vote election in Somalia. Somalis are expected to head to the polls in November/December 2020 for the parliamentary elections and January/February 2021 for the presidential elections. After using the 4:5 clan bases system, which is a power-sharing model that gives equal representation for four main clans, since 2000, the election law abolishes the system. Though the system is being replaced, clan representation in Parliament would still be ensured in the new election bill. 

The last time Somalia had a universal suffrage election was in 1969 before a bloodless coup in the same year brought to power Said Barre’s dictatorship.

African Development Bank (AfDB) has endorsed Somalia’s donor-supported plan to settle arrears it owes to lenders. The decision came following a meeting between the AfDB board and Somalia’s Ministry of Finance.  The bank has agreed for the $122.55 million debt to cleared. 

AfDB had suspended engagement with Somalia for almost three decades due to the chaos and insecurity. The Bank had imposed sanctions against project financing, as well as giving of loans or grants.

Following 24 hours of fighting in Galmudug state capital, Dhusamareb, Sufi group Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a (ASWJ) have surrendered to the government soldiers. Government soldiers (SNA) stormed ASWJ headquarters forcing the group leader, Sheikh Mohamed Shakir and spiritual leader, Moallim Mohamud Sheikh, to surrender.  The government spokesperson said that the SNA had disarmed all ASWJ militia. The ASWJ leader also released a statement, adding that the group has decided to focus on religious matters and will no longer be in politics. The 24-hour fighting led to at least 22 people being killed. 

Following the elections that took place at the end of January 2020, tensions in Galmudug regional state have been rising. The disputed elections led to three different governments, including one supported by the ASWJ. The tension reached its peak when ASWJ and SNA fought over a checkpoint into the city. 

Note: ASWJ has been instrumental in the fight against al-Shabaab militants in Galmudug state since 2007. They have assisted government forces in liberating towns and villages from the militant group.

The clashes between Federal government forces (SNA) and Jubaland security forces (JSF), supported by forces loyal to fugitive Abdirashid Janan, who serves as Jubaland security minister but escaped from NISA detention centre in Mogadishu. The clashes between the two sides took place in Belet Hawo, which resulted in the displacement of at least 65,000 civilians.

  • Somalia’s international community expressed their concern about the increased security build-up in the Gedo region in Jubaland regional state in Somalia.  They urged the actors involved to exercise restraint, to reduce the presence of security forces in Gedo, and to avoid any actions that could spark violence. 
  • The international community addressed the tension between Kenya and Somalia. Both sides accuse the other of violating its territorial integrity. The international community welcomed the communication between Somali President Farmajo and Kenya’s President Kenyatta on 5 March. They urged both sides to de escalate tension, to cooperate on border security and to form a joint committee to address issues of diplomacy and trade
  • Note: International Community countries represented in the press release include African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Denmark, Ethiopia, European Union, Germany, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States, United Nations.

U.N. envoy to Somalia, Ambassador James Swan, urged Puntland regional government, President Deni, to be part of the conversation with the FGS to address pressing challenges affecting the country. During the meeting between the two leaders in Puntland, Amb Swan said that he, as well as other regional leaders, should come together, in the spirit of national unity, to overcome difference and find consensus on how best to move forward, in the interest of the Somali people.”

Jubaland President Ahmed Islam Madobe claims that a plot to overthrow him and his government has been thwarted. The President promoted the top Jubaland force commander, Mahad Mohamed Islam, who had been offered at least 1 million dollars to overthrow the Jubaland president. The force commander alleges that Federal government intelligence (NISA) head, Fahad Yasin, offered him the money. He also alleges that the NISA head asked his help in taking Afmadow and Dhobley towns from the control of the Jubaland Forces. Mahad Islam claims that the Federal government sent $110,000, rerouted through the Jubaland Ministry of Finance, to assist with the logistics of accomplishing the desired task. At the ceremony, President Madobe said he is “fully satisfied with [the force commander’s] patriotism to defend our territory. To counter the enemy, we ought to denounce their compromise and fight for our people.”

Somali Foreign Affairs, Amb Ahmed Isse Awad, urged the Puntland President Deni, to mend their relationship with the federal government of Somalia. Speaking during the Puntland State Consultation Forum, the Ambassador advised both sides to tone down the accusations and work towards resolving differences. 

The new Galmudug president, Ahmed Abdi Kariye “QoorQoor”, and his deputy, Ali Dahir Eid, were inaugurated as the new leaders of the Galmudug state. The election took place on 2 February. The delay in the process is a result of disputed elections that led to three presidents in the regional state.     

On 13 April, the newly elected President of Galmudug state in Somalia, Ahmed Abdi Kariye “QoorQoor” took over from his predecessor, Ahmed Duale Gelle “Haaf.” The ceremony took place in Dhusamareb, the administrative capital of the state, where lawmakers from the federal Parliament were also in attendance.

  • Since the election in Jubaland regional state in Somalia in August 2020, the controversial winner of the election, Ahmed Madobe, has been opposed by three other candidates (Abdirizak Hiddig, Dahir Ahmed Sheikh, and Abdinasir Serrar) who declared their presidency.  The disjointed nature of the regional politics forced President Madobe to initiate talks with the rivals from March 2020. After almost two months, the three sides have agreed to end the political stalemate in Jubaland. The rivals agreed to accept the presidency of Madobe while Madobe agreed not to seek a third term. The opposition leaders would be added into the current local government. 

The end of stalemate in Jubaland was welcomed by the Somali international community who welcomed the news. “the agreement represents a helpful step towards resolving the disputes that emerged from the Jubaland electoral process in August 2019, which left the communities and political stakeholders divided.   Disputed electoral outcomes in Jubaland and the other Federal Member States over the past 18 months underscore the importance of credible electoral processes in which Somalis may choose their leaders in accordance with the Provisional Federal Constitution and Federal Member State constitutions, the statement read in part.

The federal government of Somalia (FGS) has officially recognised the election of President Madobe of Jubaland, one year after the election took place. The FGS noted that President Madobe would be the interim leader of the regional state for a period of two years.  The statement urged the Jubaland president to embark on a reconciliation path that will bring both parties together.  In the August 2020 election in Jubaland, the FGS rejected the election process, claiming that the process was flawed and was not “free and fair.” 

The FGS decision to reconcile with Jubaland is very beneficial to the federal government. At this time, the FGS has a good relationship with three of the regional states (HirShabelle, South West, Galmudug), building a better relationship with Jubaland and has a bad relationship with Puntland. Cohesion between the regional states and the federal government is essential for the success of Statebuilding in Somalia

Somali President Abdullahi Farmaajo announced that he had invited the leaders of the five regional states for a meeting in Mogadishu from 5 to 8 July. The leaders are expected to discuss the upcoming election and rebuild the relationship between the federal and regional governments. By 25 June, the presidents of Jubaland and Puntland have not responded to the invitation while the rest have agreed to meet with President Farmaajo.  Technically, the Somali President is supposed to hold frequent meetings with the regional leaders, but due to the deteriorating relationship, the President has not held the meeting in two years. 

The U.N. Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) praised the upcoming meeting between the regional states and the federal government. UNSOM Head, Amb James Swan, said that the meeting was an essential step in regular dialogue among Somali stakeholders.

Following months of stagnation of talks between Somalia and Somaliland, President of Djibouti called both leaders for a meeting in Djibouti.  At the opening ceremony, President Farmaajo condemned the actions of former Somali Dictator Siad Barre who committed human rights atrocities during the civil war in 1988. This is the first Somali President to acknowledge the incident, which is a major issue of contention between Somaliland and Somalia. 

The three-day meeting resulted in Somalia and Somaliland agreeing to, 1) refrain from any action that could derail the talks, 2) politicising humanitarian assistance and developmental aid, and 3) establish a technical subcommittee that will focus on co-management of the Somaliland airspace, and another subcommittee on security. The subcommittees are expected to meet in Djibouti in two weeks while a joint-ministerial committee is supposed to meet in 45 days. 

The international community in Somalia, as well as the Arab League, wrote statements praising both sides for their commitment to restart talks.

The Chairperson of the National Independent Electoral Commission (NEIC), Halima Yarey said that the expected one man, one vote could not feasibly take place during the 2020/21 election. The commission affirmed that the earliest that can take place is by March 2021. The decision is based on the fact that the election commission would need several months to conduct a national registration that does not exist. The commission also noted that the implementation of a biometric system of registration rather than manual would take longer. 

The U.N. Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) thanked the commission for presenting technical options to achieve direct voting for Somalis. The U.N. envoy urged the Somali leadership to quickly discuss and agree upon an electoral model ahead of the upcoming election. 

The E.U. Mission in Somalia also commented on the announcement by the electoral commission. The body stated that the presented options were “realistic and cost effective.”  “The E.U. joins the U.N. in congratulating the NIEC and its Chairperson for the presentation Saturday. We also insist on the need for political consensus based on agreed principles, the opening of political space (from selection to election), and timely elections. March 2021 option seems technically more realistic, financially more cost-effective, and better aligned with agreed principles.”

The President of the five regional governments (Jubaland, Puntland, HirShabelle, South West and Galmudug) opt to attend the meeting organised by Somali president Abdullahi Farmaajo expected to take place from 5 to 8 July.  The regional leaders will hold a meeting among themselves in Dhusamareb instead. This decision comes after leaders of Jubaland and Puntland refused to attend the meeting in Mogadishu, which was supposed to be the first meeting between the regional leaders and the federal President in two years.

The Somali President, Abdullahi Farmaajo agreed with the majority consensus that the 2020/21 election should take place on time and in accordance with the constitution. “President Farmajo also stressed the need to avoid term extension and ensure the country holds an election that is in line with the constitution and the electoral law, which must take place in an environment of peace, consultation and understanding,” the statement said in part. 

The Prime Minister, Hassan Ali Khaire, also stated that he is against term extension and that the elections should take place as expected.  PM Khaire said that he believes that a term extension would lead to chaos in the country.

The President of the five regional governments (Jubaland, Puntland, HirShabelle, South West and Galmudug) rule out the possibility of universal suffrage (one man, one vote) in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential election. The regional leaders say that the government must create an alternative, inclusive model as a substitute during the upcoming 2020/21 election. The previous election (2016/17), Somalia used the indirect vote where the 275 parliamentarians were voted in by 14 025 delegates. The M.P.s later voted for the President. 

The announcement comes as part of the Dhusamareb Summit (9 – 12 July) between the regional leaders where they discussed pressing issues affecting the country such as the electoral model, the strained relationship between the regional states and the federal government and security.

Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo met with the leader of Jubaland administration, Ahmed Mohamed Madobe during the early stages of the Dhusamareb conference. This is the first meeting between the two leaders in years. Though tension between Mogadishu and Jubaland was existent, the situation got worse when Mogadishu failed to recognise Madobe’s election in 2019.  The meeting between the two leaders comes less than a month after President Farmaajo noted its necessary to bury the hatchet. In the presidential statement, the Somali President stated that the federal government would recognise the interim administration

Following the four-day conference (19-22 July), the leaders of the federal government and the regional states published a final communique detailing the agreement between the parties.  The leaders agreed to 1) hold timely and credible elections, 2) create a technical committee with representatives from the federal government and regional states that will address the election model, 3)strengthen political, and economic cooperation, and 4) intensify cooperation to eliminate al-Shabaab from Somalia. The leaders agreed to meet back in Dhusamareb in two weeks

Somalia’s regional states have appointed two representatives each to the national technical committee on elections. The appointment is in line with the agreement agreed upon during the meeting between the federal government and regional states in Dhusamareb. The Interior Minister Mohamed Abdirahman Dhabancad and Deputy State House Director Abdiweli Ali Abdulle will represent Puntland state while State Minister Hirsi Jama Gani and State Minister Hamza Abdi Bare will represent Kismayo based regional state as Mohamed Ali Adle and Abdi Mohamed Farah will defend the interest of Hirshabelle state. Galmudug and Southwest state leaders are scheduled to appoint their delegates to complete the list ahead of the meeting in Dhusamareb next month.

Somalis and the international community woke up to the news that the Somali Prime Minister, Hassan Ali Khaire, was ousted from office following a vote of no-confidence by the Parliament. The majority of the Parliament that voted to oust the PM stated that the Hassan Khaire was “ineffective” and not “fulfilling promises made to the nation” Only 8 M.P.s voted against the vote of no-confidence.

The deputy PM, Mahdi Guled, was quickly appointed acting PM by President Farmaajo.

Puntland President, Said Abdullahi Deni, described the FGS parliament’s decision to remove PM Khaire from office as illegal.  He further accuses Somali president Farmaajo of violating the constitution. He said, “What happened in Parliament is aimed at derailing the Dhusamareb conference, and I put the blame for it on the President of the Republic. What happened yesterday is against all  existing laws and regulations that guide the process of removing a Prime Minister from office.”

The African Union and the regional body, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) called for unity in realising concrete agreement on ongoing election talks in Somalia. The two African bodies called on Somali leadership to bring all stakeholders together to ensure that the talks in Dhusamareb later next month would result in an agreed election model. “We further underscore the importance of ensuring that the agreed electoral model that will emerge from the technical committee is underpinned by broad-based consensus involving parliament, political parties, civil society and other Somali stakeholders,” the statement read in part.

In a statement, the international community in Somalia expressed their concern about the current political environment that saw the Parliament oust Prime Minister Hassan Khaire. They cautioned against a lack of cooperation among various political stakeholders during this critical transitional period in the country. “Any attempt by a single stakeholder to unilaterally impose electoral modalities will lack legitimacy and will not be implementable without the essential support from other stakeholders,” the statement said in part. The international partners urged the FGS and the regional states to adhere and honour the Dhusamareb agreement

In a separate statement, the E.U. Foreign policy chief, Josep Borell, commented on the situation in Somalia. He noted that the vote showed “serious disrespect for the constitutional foundations” of the country. “Developments in Somalia parliament on Saturday represent a setback for Somalia and the confidence of the European Union in the progress of Somalia.” He added that the vote did not meet the minimal constitutional requirements.”

In a separate statement, the U.S. expressed their concern over the removal of PM Khaire.  The U.S. embassy noted that the move to oust the Prime Minister could escalate political tension in the country. The U.S. termed the move as an irregular process that could be a setback for the reform agenda. “The U.S. Embassy regrets the actions of the President and Lower House of Parliament to withdraw confidence in Prime Minister Ali Hassan Khaire and his government, which heightened political tensions and undermined the ongoing process of dialogue and negotiation between the Federal Government of Somalia, Federal Member States, and other key stakeholders,” the statement reads in part. 

The Somali Cabinet has urged the international community to respect Somalia’s sovereignty following the ouster of Prime Minister Hassan Khaire. The Minister of Information, Mohamed Abdi Hayir, said that the international community should behave more diplomatically, adding that the Cabinet “must protect the country’s sovereignty and the decisions of the constitutional institutions.”

The Somali Foreign Affairs Minister, Ambassador Ahmed Isse Awad assured the international partners and all other Somali stakeholders that Somalia is fully committed to holding all-inclusive polls in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary election. In the monthly briefing with the diplomatic corps, the Minister conveyed “President’s commitment to political stability, inclusivity, and consensus-building. And I thanked our partners for their unyielding support.” Following the ousting of Prime Minister Hassan Khaire, the international community voiced their concerns about the abrupt dismissal of the leader.

Following weeks of uncertainty after the ousting of Prime Minister Hassan Khaire, many political parties and clans have voiced their concern. The latest communique comes after the Mudolood conference, a summit that called representatives of the Mudolood clan including the two former presidents and current regional President. The communique said in part, “The Mudulood clan calls on the Federal Government to ensure the 2020/21 national elections are based on consensus and are held on time. The clan warns against a term extension for the government that may plunge the country into a political and constitutional crisis.” 

The clan conference also addressed the al-Shabaab menace in the country. They vowed to purge extremist groups from their historical land, adding that the FGS and AMISOM should support their efforts.   

Somali President, Abdullahi “Farmaajo” met with three out of the five regional presidents to finalise the electoral model for the upcoming 2020/21 election.  Before the meeting took place, the President of Puntland, Said Deni, who boycotted the previous meeting, placed conditions for his participation in the conference. He told President Farmaajo of Somalia that he needs to name a new Prime Minister, he should not suggest the extension of his term limit, categorically ruling out a universal vote. Since his demands were not met, he did not attend. Jubaland president, a strong ally of Puntland President Deni, did not attend the meeting either. 

The Dhusamareb Conference III agreement stated; 1) the election will be facilitated by the National Independent Electoral Commission (NEIC), 2) four electoral constituencies to be designated in every regional state, which the election shall take place, 3) elections to happen at the same time across the country, 4) elections be held on a multi-party system, 5) members of the Upper House be elected by the regional state M.P.s, 6) 30% quota on women in Parliament to be protected, among other matters. 

A day after the conclusion of the Dhusamareb conference III, Presidents of Jubaland and Puntland issued a statement noting that the conclusion of the conference is between the three present regional presidents and the Somali President.

The International Community in Somalia has welcomed the results of the Dhusamareb III conference, though saddened by the lack of participation by Jubaland and Puntland presidents. James Swan, the U.N. Envoy to Somalia, said “it is disappointing that they declined to participate despite repeated appeals from the Somali political leaders and international partners. We understand that there are strongly held divergent views among the leaders and political tension are high in the pre-electoral period. Yet, it is precisely during such moments that it is most necessary for the nation’s leaders to engage in dialogue and present their best ideas to find solutions in the interest of the Somali people.”

Prior to the conference, the U.S. called for comprehensive consultation and consensus across Somalia’s political spectrum on the electoral model. After the conclusion of the meeting, the U.S. criticised the absence of Puntland and Jubaland, adding “spoilers without participation sacrifice democracy for their own ambitions. Parties will need to move forward with the timely model agreed.” 

The main opposition party coalition, Forum for National Parties (NFP), welcomed the consensus reached in Dhusamareb III regarding the electoral process and considers the outcome as a step in the right direction. The coalition calls for the Puntland and Jubaland presidents to participate in future talks as it makes the process more inclusive. They call on the next meeting to be inclusive of other stakeholders, i.e. opposition parties and civil society.

The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) issued a letter ordering the Director of CARE International – Somalia, Iman Abdullahi, to leave the country with immediate effect. The Minister of Education, Abdullahi Godah Barre, accused the Abdullahi of meddling in the country’s internal politics, specifically undermining the development of the country’s education sector.

The President of the self-declared independent state of Somaliland, Muse Bihi, urged the National Electoral Commission (NEC) to accelerate efforts towards holding the upcoming regional and national elections on time. The elections are supposed to take place in May 2020 – nine months –  as agreed upon with the leaders of the main opposition parties

  • Somalia’s Ambassador to the UN, Abukar Dahir Osman Baale, issued a communique calling for a review of U.N. Mission in Somalia’s (UNSOM) mandate. Though he praised the U.N.’s efforts in promoting peace and stability in Somalia, he insisted that the developmental and reconstruction efforts in the country “must be Somali-driven, and must be as Somali-driven.” He cautioned the U.N., as well as other international community members, against interfering with Somali affairs, especially the upcoming election.

The issue of interference with Somali internal politics is an accusation that has been in Somali political space for decades. In the case of the U.N., the former U.N. Envoy to Somalia, Nicholas Haysom, was expelled from the country after he shared his dislike for Somalia’s decision to arrest former Al-Shabaab leader and aspiring candidate for the 2018 South West election, Mukhtar Robow.

Galmudug State Information Minister, Ahmed Abdi Falagle spoke out against the recent clan clashes that have plagued the state. The clan clashes, the recent one between Hananbuure and Qalanqaale areas, have resulted in many deaths and injuries. The fighting has also led to many families to be displaced. He urged community leaders to lead in the reconciliation process between rival militias. He also appealed to Cabinet members from making comments about the clashes, as it is the work of the Ministry to make official statements on ongoing issues in the state.

Ousted Prime Minister, Hassan Ali Khaire, declares his candidacy for the upcoming presidential election. Former PM Khaire was ousted from power in July when the majority of the Parliament voted for his removal, a move that shocked the international community. The move was condemned by international partners who saw the ouster of the Prime Minister as a step backwards which could create more issues for Somalia.

During the National Consultative Forum (NCF), which took place between 14 – 18 September, Somali president Abdullahi “Farmaajo” met with regional presidents resulting in an agreement on the electoral model that the country will use during the 2020/21 parliamentary and presidential elections. Key points of the agreement include, 1) Election period will begin 1 November, 2) to hold elections in two cities in the respective regional states, 3) traditional elders, civil society and regional states should jointly undertake the selection of delegates,  4) preserve the 30% women quota, 5) regional assemblies from all five regional states should elect members of the upper house of Parliament. 

Following the meeting, Puntland President, Said Deni, urged the Parliament to approve the NCF agreement. He added that the agreement was “the fruit of lengthy Somali-led discussions based on a satisfactory process that would not favour any group.

Somali opposition parties issued separate statements welcoming the successful conclusion of the NCF. They called for speedy implementation of the agreement. 

Somaliland, a territory that Somalia claims to be part of the country but the inhabitants declared independence in 1991, rejected the outcome of the NFC. In regards to Somaliland, the NFC agreed that the Upper House members representing Somaliland should be elected by joint delegates representing the regions.  Somaliland Foreign Affairs Ministry issued a statement notifying the international partners that the upcoming national polls have nothing to do with the self-declared independent state. Somaliland is expected to undergo their own electoral process, which has been postponed for the last two years. 

Some of the members of the international community in Somalia signed onto a statement where they acknowledged the conclusion of the NFC. Though the agreement fell short of the longstanding Somali goal of direct voting for members of Parliament, they commend the Somali President and regional leaders on the decision. The international community urged that the 2020/21 electoral process be free, fair, transparent, and inclusive

All 215 federal M.P.s have unanimously ratified the appointment of Mohamed Hussein Roble as the new Prime Minister in a special sitting. The new PM vowed to immediately work on preparing for the 202/21 parliamentary and presidential elections. All 215 federal M.P.s have unanimously ratified the appointment of Mohamed Hussein Roble as the new Prime Minister in a special sitting. The new PM vowed to immediately work on preparing for the 202/21 parliamentary and presidential elections.

Following the confirmation and assumption of office, new Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has been busy meeting with key Somali stakeholders. The PM met with the Presidents of HirShabelle and Jubaland regional governments where they discussed prioritising political issues and ensuring a fair and transparent electoral process. A similar meeting discussing the same topic was held between PM Roble and several M.P.s, Speaker of the Lower House and First Deputy Speaker.     

The PM also met with officials from the Banadir Regional Administration (Mogadishu and its environs) about bolstering security in the capital as the election period nears. As with the previous election period, the extremist group, Al-Shabaab, increases the number of attacks in an attempt to stop the election. Previously, the group has managed to kill presidential candidates, members of Parliament (M.P.s) and delegates who elect the M.P.s

The new Prime Minister, Mohamed Hussein Roble, held meetings with the various international communities and key stakeholders upon assuming his role. He met with the head of United Nations Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), James Swan, and Head of African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Francisco Madeira, EU Ambassador to Somalia, Nicolas Berlanga, among other representatives. In this meeting, the PM briefed the international community on the possible ways the various agencies would partner with the country to achieve its national priorities. 

The PM met with the U.S. Ambassador to Somalia, Donald Yamamoto and other U.S. embassy officials. They discussed the current political situation, and  implementation of the electoral model.

President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo” chaired a meeting with all the regional presidents, except Somaliland, and the Mayor of Mogadishu to discuss the formation of federal and state-level electoral commissions. The meeting also discussed the appointment of a dispute resolution committee, and the timetable for the electoral process.  

 

The consultative meetings in Dhusamareb in September bore fruit as the country has issued the parliamentary and presidential election schedule.  The timetable notes that the process will officially begin on 10 October, with two federal and state election commissions to be appointed by 20 October. Between 20 – 31 October, the appointed members of the election commissions would be trained while 1 – 30 November will see the selection of electoral delegates as well as organising of poll stations around the country.  The Upper House of Parliament election will take place between 1-10 December while the Lower House would be on 10 -27 December. The election for the leadership of Parliament, i.e. the Speakers and the Presidency, would take place 1 – 8 January 2021. 

Optimistic from the concluded election consultative meetings in Dhusamareb, Galmudug state, regional president of Puntland, Said Deni, noted: “concerns over election delay is over.” The president said those words during a press conference at the Mogadishu airport as he headed to Nairobi to meet other opposition group leaders 

Both local and international stakeholders deem the Dhusamareb consultative meeting in September as a turning point to solve the electoral impasse between the regional states and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS).

In an attempt to disrupt and infiltrate the Somali political system, the extremist group Al-Shabaab has intensified the process of appointing elders in various towns in South and Central Somalia. Somalia cannot conduct one man, one vote, therefore, the country relies on the indirect system of voting, which requires elders to be delegates to vote for the House of Representatives (HoR). HoR, in the Somali context, is represented by clan elders. 

Al-Shabaab would like to have some elders who are part of the group or sympathetic to the messages of the group so they can influence national and regional policies. 

The National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC) of Somalia issued certificates of registration to six more political parties.  The six parties include; 1) Peace and Justice party, 2) Justice and Reconciliation party, 3) Republican party, 4) Green party of Somalia, 5) PEace and Unity party, and 6) Qaransoor party.  

Interestingly, the Peace and Justice party is led by the incarcerated former Al-Shabaab deputy leader, Mukhtar Robo ‘Abu Mansur.’ Robow has been on house arrest since 2018, when he was arrested while he ran for the regional president of South West state. The former leader of Al-Shabaab defected to government forces in 2017 but is believed to have disengaged from the group since 2012. His arrest during elections is controversial since he was seen as the likely winner of the elections. Former head of the UN Mission of Somalia questioned the decision to arrest Robow which led to him being kicked out of Somalia and declared persona non grata. 

The registration of new political parties is a sign that the country seems optimistic about the future of the elections scheduled to take place between December 2020 to February 2021. 

In an attempt to foster cooperation between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the federal Member States (FMS), the international community travelled to Baidoa, the capital city of South West regional state. While meeting regional president Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed “Laftagareen”, the delegation encouraged the revitalisation of dialogue between the FGS and FMS. 

The delegation included the head of UN Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), James Swan, head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Ambassador Francisco Madeira, EU deputy head of delegation to Somalia, Nicole Miller, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Head of Mission, Jamal Ahmed Ibrahim. 

The United Nations (UN) and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) signed a new cooperation framework named the UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework (UNCF). The agreement details how the two parties will work together to achieve peace, stability, and prosperity over the next five years.  The UNCF outlines how the UN intends to support government-owned and government-led priorities, including those that are part of Somalia’s ninth National Development Plan (NDP-9) – politics and reconciliation; security and the rule of law; economic development; and social development.

Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble urged the regional states to submit their nominations to the joint electoral commission. In a letter, PM Roble told the regional presidents that the deadline for submission had already passed, but he has extended the deadline until 20 October. 

The Prime Minister, Mohamed Hussein Roble, announced the members of the new Cabinet. Many of the former Cabinet members retained their positions.

With the regional and federal government at loggerheads, the Somali international community has been making rounds to all regional states to help the two sides come together and find a solution to the electoral impasse. This week, the international community delegation travelled to Galmudug state where they met with the regional president, Ahmed Abdi KAriye ‘QoorQoor”.  The international community stressed the importance of dialogue between the federal member states (FMS) and the federal government of Somalia (FGS). 

The delegation included the head of UN Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), James Swan, head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Ambassador Francisco Madeira, EU deputy head of delegation to Somalia, Nicole Miller, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Head of Mission, Jamal Ahmed Ibrahim. 

Somaliland president, Muse Bihi, defended his administration’s decision to suspend all UN activities within the region announced earlier during the week. In a speech, he said that the UN would not be allowed to implement “what was dictated by Somalia [Villa Somalia].” 

Somaliland suspended activities by the UN due to a recent agreement between the UN and Somalia’s government which refers to Somaliland as a regional state part of Somalia. Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but is yet to gain any recognition from the international community. Despite the case, the country enjoys bilateral agreements with regional and European countries. 

Continuing with the stalemate, Jubaland has refused to follow suit with other regional states and nominate members to the indirect elections committee. The regional president of Jubaland, Ahmed Mohamed Islam ‘Madobe’, cites the federal government’s decision not to withdraw troops from the Gedo region, one of the three regions part of the Jubaland administration, as the reason for the delay. 

Federal troops stationed in the Gedo region is among the contentious elements contributing to the stalemate between the regional and federal governments.  Jubaland insists that the federal government should withdraw all troops from the region if the electoral process is to continue, a move that the government is unwilling to budge on.

As Somalia prepares for the parliamentary and presidential elections, the regional state, HirShabelle, submits the names of eight names to represent the state on the National electoral body.  The eight individuals include three females. 

Earlier in the year, the country agreed that Somalia could not hold one man, one vote for the upcoming elections. As a result, the country agreed to modify the indirect elections. The eight members submitted by HirShabelle state will oversee the elections of the Upper and Lower houses of parliament. In the indirect system, the state is allocated 38 seats in both houses of parliament

The HirShabelle State President, Mohamed Abdi Ware, publicly announced his resignation as regional leader. In a statement, “Pursuant to Article 52 of the HirShabelle Provisional Constitution, I have resigned as President of HirShabelle State, a federal Member State of the Federal Government of Somalia. I wish the people of HirShabelle and Somalia success and prosperity.” He asserted that the current process to elect the parliament and president could lead to political instability. He suggested that the HirShabelle elections be postponed by a month after the federal elections scheduled to take place between October 2020 and January 2021.

To get the electoral process underway, each regional state is expected to appoint members to a state electoral committee that will oversee and manage the electoral process in the upcoming election.  Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble appointed the members of the Northern Election Commission, which is synonymous with Somaliland. Though Somaliland operates as an independent country, based on the transitional constitution, Somaliland MPs are part of the electoral process. The committee has 11 members, including five women. 

Galmudug regional president Ahmed Kariye “QoorQoor” issued a presidential decree with his nomination of the eight-member state Electoral committee, which included two women.  In South West State, President Abdiaziz “Lafta

Ali Gudlawe is the new HirShabelle State President-elect. He beat one candidate vying for the same position. Yusuf Ahmed Hagar will serve as his deputy. Like many local elections in Somalia, allegations of manipulation of the electoral process were voiced by local observers and opposition groups. 

Immediately after his election, Somali president Abduallahi Farmaajo issued a congratulatory message to HirShabelle, President-elect Ali Gudlawe Hussein and his deputy, Yusuf Ahmed Hagar. 

The international community issued a statement welcoming the newly elected HirShabelle President, Ali Gudlawe. We look forward to working with the new HirShabelle President Ali Gudlawe in advancing reconciliation, bringing together all HirShabelle clans and communities, combating violent extremism and addressing HirShabelle’s state-building and socio-economic priorities.”

A week after the election, The newly elected president held a telephone conversation with the US Ambassador to Somalia, Donald Yamamoto, where they discussed reconciliation, security and the upcoming federal electoral process. 

Somali President Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmaajo” signed into Law the Indirect Election Agreement that had been endorsed by both houses of parliament on 26 September 2020.  “We are heading for an election. Since October 1 of this year, when we signed the agreement with the heads of state and government on the Electoral Procedures Agreement, we have taken steps at the federal level to hold the elections and implement all provisions of the Political Agreement on the directions for the federal Parliamentary Elections,” he stated

HirShabelle Regional Assembly Deputy Speaker, Mahad Hassan Osman, stated that there is ongoing deliberation on the possibility of extending the term limit of the administration by one year. According to the Deputy Speaker, the move is to distance the state election from the national election, which currently falls around the same period. 

The international community in Somalia issued a statement calling for broad and inclusive consensus on the matter of election committee impasse. They urged the leaders to adhere to the agreements from the September Dhusamareb meetings. The statement added, “We particularly emphasise that achieving broad consensus on the establishment of the electoral management committees, which should include 30 percent representation of women, and on resolving differences on how the federal vote will be conducted in the Gedo region and for the seats allocated to the Somaliland communities, will be critical to the transparency, legitimacy, feasibility and timely implementation of the electoral process.” 

Prime Minister Roble delivered an address to the UN Security Council (UNSC) on wide-ranging issues affecting Somalia. He affirmed the government’s commitment to upholding the 30% women’s quota in parliament. He assured the UNSC that the federal government is making progress when it comes to the electoral process. The day before the address, the deputy prime minister had opened the training of the electoral commission. On economic issues, the PM noted that the government has been implementing reforms to increase the country’s revenue.

The opposition presidential candidates issued a communique calling for the disbandment of the electoral committee. The communique, which was issued after the conclusion of a 6-day meeting amongst the 14 member union, stated that the federal and state electoral committees were not created in accordance with the agreed conditions. The union of opposition candidates also called for the withdrawal of all federal troops from Gedo region, which is part of Jubaland State. Finally, the communique called for the 30% women quota in parliament to be upheld in the upcoming election.  The union had published a letter four days earlier stating similar concern about some of the members of the electoral commission. In that letter, they urged the federal government and the federal member states of HirShabelle, Galmudug and Southwest to remove from the state and federal electoral committee “…members that have not met the set conditions, including the need to bar individuals attached to the security institutions, civil servants and those who have publicly come out in support of the incumbent president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed ‘Farmajo’,

The President of Puntland commented on the communique saying that he disagreed with the council. He stated that he does not think that the state and federal electoral committees should be disbanded.

Prime Minister Roble dismissed the accusations from the opposition union. He affirmed that the process and the electoral commission is in accordance with the agreed upon resolutions from the Dhusamareb and Mogadishu meetings. He added that he would engage with the opposition to discuss their concerns about some of the federal electoral committee members.

At a press conference after returning from Nairobi, Jubaland regional president Madobe states that the upcoming election cannot take place without key issues being resolved. According to him, the Jubaland administration Governor needs to be reinstated in Gedo region. Currently, government forces have been handling the security issues around the regional capital of Gedo region, Garbahaarey.  He added, “Those with responsibilities for the election, including the president and the like, should differentiate the election guidelines and the political campaign.” He accused the federal government of destabilising the region by deploying troops and appointing parallel new administrations for six of the seven districts in Gedo region.

President Deni of Puntland regional state welcomed the international community delegation.  Like with previous meetings, the international community urged all Somali leaders to remain steadfast in their commitment to collaborating with each other. Following the close door meeting, the regional president, Said Deni, held a press conference where he stated that the meeting was productive and acknowledged that significant steps had been made in terms of creating an electoral committee to oversee the election process. 

The delegation included the Deputy Special Representative for Somalia, Raisedon Zenega, head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Ambassador Francisco Madeira, EU head of delegation to Somalia, Nicolas Berlanga and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Head of Mission, Jamal Ahmed Ibrahim. 

Somaliland announced the first phase of voter registration would begin in the country. The registration will take place in Adwal region, Gabiley, Baligubadle and Salahley. The last day of registration in those specified regions and districts is 2 December. The National Electoral Commission (SNEC) said that the priority and insurance of voting cards would be focused on previously unregistered voters and those about to reach voting age. 

Somaliland is expected to hold their local and presidential election on 31 May 2021. The process is different from that in Somalia. 

President of Somalia, Abdullahi Farmaajo, has asked regional states presidents to submit names to the electoral committee.  . “We are committed to fully implementing the election agreement while refraining from delays to the schedule of the election. Therefore, I call on the federal Member States that are yet to submit their lists to the election implementing committees to present the agreed requirements, hoping that they will make their appointments as soon as possible.” 

The parliamentary and presidential election has been delayed. The process was supposed to start at the beginning of October, but the differences about who should be members of the electoral commission have stalled the process.

The Speaker of the Lower House,  Mohammed Mursal Sheikh Abdirahman, announced a term extension for the current 10th parliament until their successors are elected and sworn in. He quoted the provisional federal constitution as the basis of his decision. Additionally, he stated the 9th parliament during Hassan Sheikh presidency also extended the term limit of the parliament and presidency as they finalised the election process. 

The decision comes as the federal government and the regional states are still at loggerheads about implementing the past agreements and the presence of federal troops in Gedo region. The parliament’s mandate expires on 27 December. 

Somalia has accused Kenya of mobilising and arming militias along the Kenya-Somalia border. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) alleges that the militias are expected to attack the town of Belet Hawo and Somali National Army (SNA) bases located in Somalia.  “The Federal Government of Somalia warns the Government of Kenya of its aggression and illegal actions in the Federal Republic of Somalia which can undermine the stability of the Horn of Africa region. It reiterates once again that the blatant interferences in the internal affairs of Somalia can potentially create instability as well as affect the security of the region. The Federal Government of Somalia will take all necessary steps to ensure political independence, territorial integrity, and the protection of the dignity and honour of the people of the Federal Republic of Somalia,” the statement read. 

The African Union calls for calm as the tension between Kenya and Somalia increases. The AU Commission Chairman, Moussa Faki Mahamat, urged both parties to return to open dialogue with a view to the resumption of relations. 

During an Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) summit, the president of Kenya and Somalia allegedly held a closed-door meeting in the company of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia and President Omar Gelleh of Djibouti. 

IGAD sent a fact-finding mission, led by Djibouti, to investigate the allegations from the Somali government. 

The federal election commission has postponed the Upper House election timetable upon Galmudug leader, Ahmed Abdi Kariye “QoorQoor,” request. The amended schedule earmarks  5 January 2021 as the deadline for the registration of candidates for the Upper House, while the senate election will run between 7 and 14 January 2021. 

The Somali Prime Minister, Mohammed Hussein Roble, met with the Chairperson of the opposition Wadajir party, Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, and the Upper House Speaker, Abdi Hashi,  separately, in an effort to find a solution to the electoral impasse. The PM received the Abdirahman Warsame at his office in Mogadishu, where they discussed the issues of Somaliland, Gedo region and the electoral impasse. The PM maintained his commitment to find a solution to the current political crisis. 

In the meeting with the Speaker of the Upper House of Parliament, Abdi Hashi aimed to resolve the tension over the electoral committee for Somaliland region. Though Somaliland operates independently from Somalia, the provisional Constitution dictates that Somaliland must get a portion of parliamentary seats. For months, Speaker Hashi and PM Roble have been at loggerheads over who should be on the committee. The PM had created an electoral commission for Somaliland without the input of Speaker Hashi, which created further issues. The meeting resolved some of the issues, with the PM Roble allowing Speaker Hashi to replace four committee members.

The electoral impasse between the regional federal states and the federal government has led to another parliamentary elections delay. The amended timetable published on 29 December 2020 stated that the election would take place between 7 and 14 January. For the parliamentary election to take place, the delegates need to be appointed, which has not taken place.  President Farmaajo’s ally, president Ahmed Kariye of Galmudug state, told BBC Somali Service that the possibility of partial elections – without the participation of Jubaland and Puntland, who oppose Farmaajo’s presidency –  has been ruled out. 

President Farmaajo of Somalia has called for the Somali leaders to solve the electoral standoff so that the election takes place. He has been meeting with the presidents of the three regional states that are allied to him, Galmudug, HirShabelle and South West.

The delays are building pressure on Somalia as the presidential mandate ends in less than a month on 8 February. Despite Somalia facing many internal struggles, including humanitarian crises and the fight against al-Shabaab, the country has always had a peaceful transfer of power. Though the elections are usually delayed, the current impasse is taking the country to an unprecedented area.

The Federal Electoral Commission (FEC) issued a statement calling for the immediate end to the political impasse which has hampered the 2020/21 parliamentary and presidential election. The statement called for the implementation of the 17 September agreement.  The commission noted that they have already started training its members both at the federal and state level.  The FEC affirmed that they are already to hold free and fair election in Somalia. 

The FEC should not be confused with the National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC). Both institutions are technically in charge of the electoral process in Somalia. The FEC was created to specifically be in charge of the indirect elections that were supposed to take place from December 2020 but have not taken place. 

After months of delays, Jubaland and Puntland finally submit their nominations for the state-level electoral committee. The deadline for the submission of names was on 20 October 2020. The submission of the nominees could propel the electoral process as it allows Prime Minister Ahmed Roble to finalise the members of the Federal Electoral Commission (FEC). 

The United Nations Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) welcomed Jubaland and Puntland’s electoral commission announcement. The head of UNSOM, James Swan, noted that the announcement was a positive step in resolving the ongoing electoral deadlock.

The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the regional states kicked off consultative meetings in Dhusamareb, Galmudug State. The meetings are expected to solve the electoral deadlock as the presidential mandate comes to an end in 5 days. Somali information minister informed the press that the meeting discussed the implementation of the 17 September 2020 agreement. Puntland and Jubaland were adamant that the withdrawal of federal troops out of Gedo region should be a requirement for the impasse to be solved.  

By the end of the consultative meetings, the leaders agreed that the Upper House Speaker, Abdi Hashi and the Deputy Prime Minister Mahdi Gulaid would be in charge of the selection of Somaliland parliamentary seats.  The issues of Gedo region and the members of the electoral commission could not be resolved. 

In response to the news that the FGS and regional states, the British Ambassador to Somalia, Ben Fender, stated that the process in Dhusamareb should be to “unlock an election, not block one.” He urged the leaders to compromise so that the election can take place as soon as possible. 

The spokesperson of the Federal Government of Somalia stated that President Farmaajo will serve until election takes place. This comes just two days after the Presidential mandate officially ended. In an interview, the spokesperson said that the decision is based on the federal parliament’s resolution, which articulated that the president and lawmakers will remain in office until a new government is formed. 

The opposition council said that they do not recognise the presidency of Farmaajo now that his mandate is over.

Some opposition leaders and their supporters staged a peaceful anti-government protest in Mogadishu. The protests turned violent when militia loyal to the opposition and Somali National Army (SNA) troops, paramilitary police, and the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) members exchanged fire. The two sides had also exchanged fire the previous night. The tension escalated when a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) was fired, which landed in the green zone, also referred to Halane by the locals. it is unclear who fired the RPG  

Both the opposition and the federal government issued statements accusing the other side of escalating the matter. The interior ministry stated that government forces were responding to fire from armed militias who had attacked military posts the previous night. The incident that the government was referring to was the decision by the former defence Minister, Yusuf Siyad Indha-adde and his militia to occupy the Daljirka Dahsoon monument, which has been the historical location where opposition groups gather. According to the former defence minister, he sent his militia to defend the opposition from the military. 

The violent clashes were widely condemned by the international community, who issued a statement calling for calm. Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble expressed his deep sorrow over the clashes. He reiterated his willingness to work with all sides to ensure an inclusive and peaceful national electoral process takes place.

Puntland and Jubaland’s presidents set new conditions to attend the consultative meetings with the other regional states and the federal government of Somalia (FGS). The two leaders stated that the meetings should be held in the green zone, commonly referred to as Halane by the locals, citing safety and lack of trust of the FGS. They are also calling for the international community to attend the meetings as third party guarantors and signatories. 

Two days later, Jubaland issued a statement adding to the conditions to attend the consultative meetings. The pre-conditions included; 1) a formal apology from the current government for wrongful actions and harm it has done to the citizens and political stakeholders, 2) the federal government should hold a meeting with all political stakeholders, 3) the upcoming meeting should be held in a safe environment under the responsibility of the international community, 4) a guarantee that the outcomes of the meeting will be implemented, and 5) the current president, Abdullahi Farmaajo, whose mandate ended, should not play a role in the electoral process as a way to rebuild the confidence of all stakeholders.

With tension between the opposition and the federal government at all time high, presidents of Galmudug and HirShabelle have offered to mediate talks between the two sides. Galmudug president called the two main figures of the opposition council, former presidents Sheikh Sharif and Sheikh Mohamud, and the ousted Prime Minister, Hassan Ali Khaire.  Separately, the president of HirShabelle, Ali Gudlaw, held a closed-door meeting with former president Sheikh Mohamud at his Mogadishu home.

President Said Deni of Puntland state seems to reject the electoral model agreement that has widely been accepted as the basis of the upcoming election. While speaking at an event in his regional state, the President stated that the electoral model agreement, commonly referred to as the 17 September agreement, has contributed to instability.

James Swan, the head of the UN Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), and Mohamed Abdirizak Mohamud, the Foreign Affairs minister, briefed the UN Security Council. James Swan expressed the concern by the international community over the 19 February clashes. He warned that the political tension threatens “Somalia’s state-building progress and even security.” The UNSOM head briefed the council that the meetings between the federal government and regional states have not bore fruit even though both sides and the parliament have agreed on an electoral model. He stressed the international community’s appeals that they will not support any parallel election or processes or unilateral actions by Somali leaders. 

The Foreign Affairs Minister told the Council that the federal government has made considerable efforts and has made concessions to bring all stakeholders to the negotiation table to find a solution to the electoral impasse.  Addressing the 19 February clashes, the Minister said that although the government recognises the opposition’s right to peaceful protest, they had not followed the government’s measures. He denounced the  former Defence minister’s actions, whose militia had taken over a local square and had uttered that“ there is no government and we are taking control.”

Somaliland National Electoral Commission (NEC) met with representatives of the international community.  The delegation was briefed on the ongoing process to ensure that the election takes place as scheduled on 31 May 2021. 

The delegation included diplomats from the UN, UK, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway and European Union. 

A meeting attended by Prime Minister Mohamed Roble and representatives from the opposition union reached a peaceful accord. The presidents of Galmudug and HirShabelle states and the Governor of Mogadishu attended the meeting. They agreed that; 1) an independent six-member committee will be created to investigate what transpired at the 19 February clashes, 2) the government will guarantee that all citizens have the constitutional right to protest, 3) the opposition would postpone their scheduled protest on 26 February, 4) the government and opposition will work together regarding the hold of future peaceful demonstration, and 5) both sides restate their commitment to future discussion on the political and election issues. 

  • President Muse Bihi of Somaliland announced that the government would partially pay for women and minority candidates’ election expenses in the upcoming election. The decree from the government does not specify how much they are willing to cater for each candidate. 
  • This move allows broader participation in the electoral system since women and minority candidates would otherwise be unable to pay the large deposits required to participate in elections. 

The meeting between Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, the president of Somalia, and the regional presidents to resolve the electoral impasse has been postponed. The meeting aimed to discuss the recommendations from the Technical Committee held in Baidoa on 15 -16 February. The meeting was postponed due to the Jubaland and Puntland presidents’ refusal to travel to Mogadishu, citing security. 

The meeting was initially supposed to take place on 18 -19 February but was postponed due to the clashes between the opposition supporters/militias and security forces. Since then, Prime Minister Hussein Roble has been meeting with various  stakeholders, including a virtual meeting with the international community.

Before the next meeting between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and regional states commences in Mogadishu, Jubaland and Puntland presidents, Madobe and Deni, respectively, met with the local and regional political stakeholders independently and together. 

The Jubaland President met with Djibouti Ambassador to Somalia, Adan Hassan Adan, independently, where they discussed the election. Djibouti has played a mediator role in Somali internal conflicts since the fall of the Said Barre regime in January 1991. They are also a troop-contributing country to African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM). 

The Jubaland president also held meetings with US Ambassador to Somalia, Donald Yamamoto, and UK Ambassador Ms Kate Foster separately. The Puntland president was unable to attend the meeting as he had not arrived in Mogadishu. Upon arrival, he held meetings with the US ambassador and UN and AMISOM envoys to Somalia.  With the AMISOM envoy, they discussed the security of the upcoming consultative meeting. One of the requirements of both Jubaland and Puntland to attend the consultative meeting was that AMISOM would be in charge of the security. 

The meeting between Jubaland and Puntland presidents with the opposition council took place in Mogadishu. Like with other meetings, they discussed the election, the security concerns and the 19 February clashes. 

Meetings over the past one week between Jubaland and Puntland Presidents and opposition candidates resulted in the creation of a new alliance dubbed The National Salvation Council. The opposition candidates, known as the Council of the Presidential Candidates, and the regional presidents aim to add pressure on the Somali government to hold the national election. The alliance believes that the main obstacle to the delays of the election is Somali President Farmaajo.

The US Secretary of State for the Biden Administration, Anthony Bilken, called for immediate elections in Somalia. In a tweet, he said, “We are deeply concerned by the electoral impasse in Somalia. Somalia’s leaders need to hold [an] election immediately. Continued uncertainty undermines security, stability and prosperity. Set aside narrow political objectives, uphold their responsibilities to the people of Somalia.”

After more than a month of delays, the meeting between the regional presidents and the Somali government takes place in Mogadishu. The regional presidents of HirShabelle, Galmudug and South West State, who had been meeting with other local and international stakeholders, arrived at the Asfisyone Tent, where they joined the President and Mayor of Mogadishu.  

Jubaland and Puntland presidents did not attend the meeting. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) sent envoys to persuade the leaders to attend the meeting.  Though the leaders did not attend the meeting with President Farmaajo of Somalia, the presidents attended another meeting with the regional presidents. The regional presidents also met with representatives of the international community, who also attempted to persuade Jubaland and Puntland to attend the subsequent meeting with the Somali president.  

Puntland and Jubaland presidents have agreed to attend the meeting between Somali and regional presidents.  For the past four days, regional presidents and the international community have been meeting with the presidents of Jubaland and Puntland to persuade them to attend the consultative meeting. 

Despite attending the meeting, no consensus could be reached. Jubaland and Puntland are unwilling to concede on their demand that members of the newly formed alliance, the National Salvation Council, should be allowed to attend the meeting. The two leaders also maintained that since the presidential term of Farmaajo ended on 8 February, there is no executive role in the proceedings. On a positive note, the parties agreed that the security responsibility is handed over to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops. 

Another round of talks between the Somali government and the regional governments failed. TIn an allegedly pre-recorded message, the Somali Information Minister, Osman Dubbe, told the public that the talks failed due to Puntland and Jubaland regional presidents reluctant to compromise. “The Federal government of Somalia is making clear to Somali people that the leaders of Somalia’s regional States Puntland and Jubaland are not willing to hold elections in this country based on the Sept. 17th agreement and the Feb. 16th agreement,” the Minister said in part.

In a shocking move, the Lower House of Parliament extends the term limit of President Farmaajo by another two years. The Speaker of the Lower House, Mohamed Mursal Sheikh, announced that 149 lawmakers voted for the extension while one rejected and three abstained.  Following the vote, President Farmaajo took to Twitter to celebrate, adding that they “urge the citizens to seize the historic chance to choose their destiny as the House of the People voted to return the elections mandate to the people.” However, the move by the Lower House has created uncertainty in Somalia, with many fear that it will lead to violence.  

Legal scholars, along with the opposition, have questioned the legality of the move by the Lower House of Parliament. Somalia has been using its transitional constitution, which was supposed to be amended before the 2020/21 election. In terms of the election, the constitution has contradictory statements on how the parliament could operate. In one section, the Constitution says that the Lower House can enact a Bill without the consent of the Upper house, while another section states that both houses must vote.  The contradictory nature of the Constitution has led to a constitutional crisis, with the opposition claiming that the country is turning into an autocratic or authoritarian state. 

The move by the Lower House, which President Farmaajo later ratified, was denounced by the international community. They urged the Somali president to reverse the Law so that opposition could return to the table. Like with previous statements, they urged the President to return to the 17 September Agreement. 

President Farmaajo’s legal term ended on 8 February but has been in talks with the regional states to agree on how the election should take place. The opposition says that they do not recognise the actions of Farmaajo since he does not have any constitutional basis to his mandate. To operate under the unprecedented terms, both houses of parliament voted to be operational until the election takes place so that a political void is not created.

Gunshots were heard in Mogadishu as the city’s police chief Saadaq Omar Hassan was fired for opposing a move by President Mohamed to have his term extended. It is believed this rift in the country’s security services could create a vacuum that Al Shabaab could exploit. This also comes in the context of militants having killed the district commissioner, Mohamed Abdi Hayle, on the outskirts of Mogadishu. 

Tensions in Mogadishu are at an all time high as troops supporting President Farmaajo or the opposition clashes in several neighbourhoods in Mogadishu. Witness reports say that heavy weapons are being used while unknown individuals have fired mortar rounds into Vila Somalia, which houses the presidential palace and other government housing. Other reports say that each side has placed roadblocks and other obstructions to stop the opposing side from entering their secured neighbourhoods. Videos also show troops entering opposition neighbourhoods on vehicles mounted with machine guns.  Tension rose further when troops stationed in Middle Shabelle abandoned their posts and travelled to Mogadishu to support the opposition.

Two opposition leaders have accused the government troops of attacking their residence.  The former president of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, took to social media to claim that troops have fired into his residence and the troops have created a roadblock outside his house. The Somali government was quick to respond to the claims by the former president, saying that allegations are not true and that the government is the one providing security to the former president.  The leader of the Wadajir political party also made similar claims. 

In response to the fighting, the Somali Security Minister, Hassan Hundebey Jimale, accused unnamed foreign countries of supporting the violence. In a televised statement, he said that organised militias had been sent to the capital to create chaos. Previously, the Farmaajo government has accused Kenya and Djibouti of aiding and abetting fugitives and supporting militias, both militarily and financially,  in Somalia.

The International Community (IC) has called on all sides to exercise maximum restraint. We have repeatedly warned that the extension of mandates would lead to a political crisis and undermine peace, stability and security in Somalia”, the statement read in part. The IC condemned the government and the opposition for the use of the security forces to pursue political objectives. 

The Prime Minister and regional governments of HirShabelle, Galmudug and South West have joined previous condemnation by Jubaland and Puntland over the extension of President Farmaajo’s presidency by two years by the Lower House of Parliament. Prime Minister Hussien Roble took out a statement denouncing the extension of President Farmaajo’s presidency. He welcomed the two statements by the South West state and HirShabelle and Galmudug, respectively. He called on all stakeholders to prepare for a national election and to refrain from any action that would jeopardise the efforts to hold an election at the earliest time. On the security front, the Prime Minister called on all security forces who abandoned their posts to fight in Mogadishu to return to their bases. 

The rejection of term extension by allies of the President comes as troops supporting the government or opposition clashed for days in Mogadishu. 

The international community and opposition leaders welcomed the news.

With all five regional states and the Prime Minister rejecting the presidential limits, President Farmaajo says he will no longer pursue a two-year extension of his presidential term. He asked the Speaker of the Lower House of Parliament to call for a vote to reverse the term extension. Succumbing to pressure, President Farmaajo stated that the 17 September agreement is the only viable path to dialogue. 

The Lower House of Parliament voted unanimously to cancel the two-year presidential extension. The international community welcomed the developments that called on the stakeholders to return to the negotiation table again to solve the electoral impasse. 

Somalia announced that it was restoring ties with Kenya six months after severing ties. Over that period, the federal government has maintained that Kenya has been aiding and abetting a fugitive, Abdirashid Hassan Janan, who surrendered to the government in late March, and financially and militarily supporting militants to create chaos in Somalia, all claims that the Kenyan government denies. 

The Kenyan government issued a statement saying that they have taken note of the Somali government announcement.  The statement further states that Kenya “looks forward to further normalisation of relations by the Somali authorities…including trade, communication, transport, people-to-people relations, and cultural exchanges.” 

Turkey and Qatar welcome the new development by Kenya and Somalia.  “We welcome the developments regarding the resuming of diplomatic relations between Somalia and Kenya. We appreciate the efforts of the State of Qatar in this process,” said the Turkish Foreign Ministry in a statement. Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, H E Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, tweeted: “We welcome the announcement of the resumption of relations between the Republic of Somalia and the Republic of Kenya, following unremitting Qatari diplomatic efforts to bring peace and stability between the two countries.” 

The business community in both countries welcomed the normalisation of relations as they are the worst affected by the severing of diplomatic relations. 

The Chairperson of the AU Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, announced the appointment of John Dramani Mahama, the former president of Ghana, as the High Representative to Somalia. He will work with Somali stakeholders to reach a mutually acceptable compromise in order to hold the elections in the shortest possible time. AMISOM will support him to ensure the mediation efforts go smoothly.  

The former fugitive, and former Jubaland Minister of Security, Abdirashid Janan, has set conditions for his militia to join the Somali National Army (SNA). Janan has asked the government to appoint members of his militia as district commissioner of Luuq, Dolow and Beled Hawo, as well as the position of National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) commanders and deputy commanders in those three districts. Local reports say that both the Somali government and NISA have rejected the proposal. As previously reported, Janan and his militia had been fighting against SNA after escaping from jail, where he was accused of human rights violations when he killed inmates. In an attempt to gain the upper hand in Jubaland, President Farmaajo withdrew the charges against Janan. Janan is very influential in the Gedo region, which would be beneficial to the Somali president and problematic for Jubaland President Madobe.

 

Somali Prime Minister, Hussein Roble, met with representatives of the international community before the upcoming National Consultative Forum (NCF). He reiterated his commitment to bring the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the federal Member States (FMS), which is the regional government, together so that a consensus on the electoral model could be agreed on. He assured the IC that the model would align with the 17 September 2020 and 16 February 2021 agreements.

Somalia’s prime minister has invited regional leaders for a new round of negotiations to resolve the feud over elections, leading to violence in the capital. Opposition forces still remain in the capital despite President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed backing away from a term extension and agreeing to hold fresh elections.  The President, better known as Farmajo, tasked his prime minister to reach out to the rivals and oversee negotiations.  “The prime minister expects the heads of the federal member states to accept his invitation and attend the conference scheduled for May 20,” the spokesman, Mohamed Ibrahim Moalimu, told reporters.

After a three-day delay, the National Consultative Forum (NCF) began with the attendance of all regional presidents and the Mayor of Mogadishu, who is also the Governor of the Banadir region. Prime Minister Roble is chairing the meeting, which was well received by the opposition, who did not attend the meeting, since they believed one of the issues with the previous meeting was that president Farmaajo chaired the meeting. President Farmaajo did not attend the meeting until the end, when the major issues were ironed out between the regional presidents.

The issue of representation of the northern regions became one of the contentious issues during the NCF. The Speaker of the Upper House, Abdi Hashi, is in charge of creating the list of names of the members to the electoral commission representing the northern regions. The resolution was created on the final day of the consultative meet

Protestors took to the streets to demand the immediate release of Sheikh Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansour, the former deputy Al-Shabaab leader, who has been under house arrest since 2018 December.  The protestors, which included politicians, military officials and traditional elders, who come from the Robow’s clan, said they would disrupt the upcoming indirect elections in Baidoa.

Robow was arrested when it became evident that he would win the presidential election in South West state in December 2018. The former al-Shabaab leader defected to government troops in 2017, but local reports indicate he had disengaged from the group since 2012. Robow objected to the increase in civilian casualties during attacks.

Somalia’s government has announced that delayed elections would be held within 60 days, following months of deadlock over the vote that erupted into violence in the troubled country.  “About the schedule of elections, the national consultative forum agreed that elections would be held within 60 days”, with the exact dates to be determined by the electoral board. Deputy information minister Abdirahman Yusuf announced on Thursday at the conclusion of talks. Somalia’s Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and regional state presidents signed an agreement to allow elections to take place after an impasse that had held them up for months, the state-run broadcaster said on Twitter.  

Renewed fighting between anti-Al-Shabaab militia, Ma’awisley, and the Somali National Army (SNA) has been reported in the outskirts of Jowhar. Locals say that the militia wants the SNA to release three of its members who had been arrested, and the military has refused to do so.

Ten days earlier, at least ten people, including nine soldiers, were killed in clashes between the two sides when the militia attempted to free its members from police custody once again.  To help quell the tensions, the government sent the Haram’ad parliamentary police to Jowhar.

In line with the recent agreement between the federal government and the regional governments and the opposition, Somali Prime Minister Hussein Roble appointed the members of the ministerial-level committee, which will be tasked with verifying complaints against members of the election committee.  During the historic talks, the presidents of Puntland and Jubaland, and the opposition council, complained that some of the electoral commission members are part of the national intelligence and security agency (NISA) and Farmaajo loyalists. The parties are expected to submit names to the committee to determine whether they will be part of the final electoral commission.

After years of delays and false promises, Somalilanders go to the polls to vote for the parliamentarians and local councillors. Most of the candidates belong to one of the major political parties, Kulmiye, the ruling party, Waddani, the main opposition party, and UCID. Some of the local councillors ran as independents.  Though the country has scheduled presidential elections, the vote for MPs and local councillors last took place in 2005.

While travelling in Mogadishu, Former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed’s convoy was fired upon by soldiers’ part of the prisons’ guard force.  The Minister of Justice, Abdiqadir Mohamed, and Commander of the Custodial Corps, General Mahad Adan, apologised on behalf of the government. In a press conference, the two government officials expressed their regret over the unfortunate incident, adding that it was an accident. They added that they had opened an investigation on the incident. 

The Prisons Guard Force commander disputed the government’s comments, saying that the incident took place only after troops part of the former president’s convoy opened fire after they were told to stop at a checkpoint. He claims the troops fired upon the convoy in self-defence.

President of Puntland, Said Abdullahi Deni, and Speaker of the Upper House, Abdi Hashi, have named the members of the State Indirect Implementation Team (SIET).  Puntland appointed Abdikarin Muuse Mohamud, Muse Abdulqadir Du’ale, Ahmed Abdi Mohamud, Aynanshe Yusuf Hussein, Aydarus Ahmed Farah, Abdirsaq Abdulle Farah and Anab Haji Saleban Warsame. Speaker Hashi named Suleiman Aydid Osman, Abdishakur Abib Hayir, Mohamed Ali Abdullahi and Jama Omar to represent the northern territories (Somaliland).

Puntland becomes the second federal Member State to appoint its members to the election committees. Jubaland appointed members to both the federal and state electoral commissions a day prior to Puntland. Siyad Mohamed Mursal, Abdiqadir Mohamud Dhaqane (Jaylani), Ahmed Abdi Nur, Samsam Farah Abukar, Mohamed Osman Gaab, Ibrahim Adan Ibrahim, Ahmed Yusuf Mohamed and Abkar Nur Abdi were named into the State committee, while Hawo Haji Mohamed Malindi and Abdi Hiis Udan.  

Following nearly two years’ delay, Jubaland officially has an approved Cabinet. At the end of May, Jubaland President, Ahmed Madobe, submitted names of the Cabinet members to the parliament. The Cabinet comprises 23 ministers, 22 deputy ministers and five state ministers.

Former opposition and self-declared president of Jubaland following the controversial 2019 Jubaland President elections, Abdinasir Serar Maah was appointed Minister of Education.

Preliminary election results in Somaliland show that opposition groups, Waddani and UCID, have a combined majority of the seats in the race for parliament. The results show that the ruling party, Kulmiye, got 30 seats, Waddani got 31 seats, and UCID got 21 seats. No women won a parliamentary seat in this election.

The Somali Prime Minister appointed ministerial-level committee has recommended removing 34 members from the electoral commission. The ministerial committee was tasked with verifying the alleged bias and affiliation of some electoral committee members to the federal government and security agencies.  The opposition council submitted a list of 67 names that they deemed compromised due to their connection to the government.

The removal of the 34 members was welcomed by most of the opposition members. They viewed the move as a sign of goodwill by the Prime Minister, who had assured them that he would ensure that the electoral commissions at the federal and state levels are fair.

The Somali Prime Minister appointed a new Somali Election Technical Committee (ETC).  The ETC is a seven-member elective technical committee formed by the Prime Minister tasked with facilitating the smooth implementation of the indirect election, including the coordination of the federal and state election commissions and financial management.

After months of rising tension over the past year, Kenya and Somalia have agreed to re-establish ties. Over the past year, both countries expelled the diplomatic corps, while Kenya closed its airspace to planes travelling to and from Somalia. The Somali government accused the Kenyan government of interfering with internal affairs and the harbouring of then fugitive Janan, the former security minister of Jubaland state, who has since then surrendered to the government.

One of the first steps to re-establish diplomatic ties was the resumption of flights to and from Somalia. The Kenyan government said, a “goodwill measure… made in the mutual interests of our two countries and in the hope that it will cause the full normalisation [of] bilateral relations between Kenya and Somalia including diplomatic, trade and people.”  The Somali government welcomed the move by the Kenyan government, adding that it was a “starting point to commence negotiation aimed at full normalisation of diplomatic relations” between the two countries. Days later, in a statement, the Kenyan Foreign Affairs Ministry said that the “resumption of full diplomatic relations would be a positive start to the commencement of bilateral discussions between the two nations.”

The restoration of diplomatic ties was welcomed by the business communities from both sides, who have been heavily affected by the severed ties. The miraa (Khat) trade has been at the centre of the dispute, with Somalia banning miraa from Kenya, who is their biggest source.

After public outcry, the Prime Minister has appointed a high-level government commission to inquire on the allegations that Somali troops are currently fighting in the Tigrayan conflict.  The federal Minister of Defence, Hassan Hussein Haji, the Minister of Interior, Federalism and Reconciliation, Mukhtar Hussein Afrah, and the Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), Brig. Gen. Odawa Yusuf Rageh is among those selected to lead the commission’s investigation into the –  A few days ago, a leaked document from the upcoming UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea claimed that a number of Somali troops are currently stationed near Axum, Tigray region in Ethiopia. The troops allegedly received training in Eritrea, as have other soldiers previously, but ended up fighting alongside the Eritrean troops in Axum. The leaked document led to another mass protest with family members asking about their sons’ whereabouts. Some of the parents claimed that they had no inclination that their sons were sent to Eritrea for training in the first place. The federal government categorically denied the reports that Somali troops were fighting in Ethiopia.    

Regional analysts have claimed that the Federal Minister of Defence and the Chief of the Defence forces make the committee compromised. They allege that the troops were taken to Ethiopia, via Eritrea, under the instructions of the Defence chief, Brig Gen Rageh and President Farmaajo. The deployment of the troops was part of a larger plan formed by the Ethiopian, Eritrean and Somali presidents, an alliance known as the tripartite alliance. Analysts have maintained that the tripartite alliance is a destabilising factor in the Horn of Africa as it pushes the countries away from a federalist system to an authoritarian system of governance. Additionally, the alliance allows Eretria to influence the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) without being a member by using Ethiopia and Somalia

Ambassador James Swan, the UN envoy to Somalia, met with Hussein Roble, the Somali prime minister, to discuss the agreed-upon election agreement. The members of the newly appointed Somali Election Technical Committee (ETC) were also present at the meeting. The Prime Minister and the ETC briefed Amb Swan on the recent progress, including the submission by the regional state of names of individuals they believed should be removed from the Federal and State election committee.  

The newly appointed Somali Electoral Technical Committee (ETC) met with the United Nations Integrated Election Group (UN-IEG) to discuss the coordination and unification of activities in support of Prime Minister Roble’s effort to hold elections in the agreed-upon 60 days. The UN IEG affirmed its continued support to the Prime Minister and the ETC.

The ETC is a seven-member elective technical committee formed by the Prime Minister tasked with facilitating the smooth implementation of the indirect election, including the coordination of the federal and state election commissions and financial management.

The opposition groups, Waddani and UCD, formally agreed on a power-sharing agreement to control the legislature and local council after winning the majority of the seats in the recent election, at the expense of the ruling Kulmiye party. As part of the agreement, the Waddani party will be given the post of Speaker of the Somaliland Parliament and Mayor of Hargeisa, while UCID will have Deputy Speaker of the Parliament, Deputy Mayor of Hargeisa, and Mayor and Deputy of the Burao local councils. The t

US Ambassador to Somalia, Donald Yamamoto, met with Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and Galmudug and Hirshabelle presidents, Ahmed Abdi Kariye “QoorQoor” and Ali Abdullahi Hussein Gudlawe, respectively. The respective sides discussed strengthening the ties between Mogadishu and Washington, which had reportedly been tense over the past few months due to the election impasse. The reports indicated that the US was among the first countries to suggest a possible temporary stop to aid money if the Somali president, Abdullahi Farmaajo, had refused to return to the 17 September agreement and end the controversial 2-year term extension. The talks also focused on the security posed to Al-Shabaab. The US remains the biggest aid donor to Somalia.

Following a year of tension that led to the severance of ties between the two countries, Somalia and Kenya have agreed to reopen diplomatic missions. In a statement, the Somali Ministry of Foreign affairs said, “The resumption of full diplomatic relations will be a positive start to the commencement of bilateral discussions between the two nations.” Earlier in the month, Kenya opened its airspace to flights travelling to and fro Somalia after a three-month closure.

Days after the Somali Foreign affairs released its statement, their Kenyan counterpart released a statement saying, “Both ministers reconfirmed the need to expeditiously reopen their two missions of Kenya and Somalia, and emphasised the importance of normalising diplomatic relations between the two countries.” This comes after the foreign affairs minister had a telephone conversation about the normalisation of relations.

The Kenyan Ambassador, RTD General Lucan Tumbo, returned to Somalia with his counterpart returning to Nairobi the following week.

In line with the agreed upon benchmarks to ensure the election takes place as soon as possible, the Somali regional government began to submit their nominations to the Federal and State-level election commissions and dispute resolutions committee. So far, Galmudug, HirShabelle, Puntland, Jubaland and Somaliland caucus have submitted their names to the Office of the Prime Minister.

Based on the 27 May agreement, following complaints from some of the regional governments and opposition that the electoral commissions were compromised with allies of the current President and intelligence officers, prime minister Hussein Roble asked the regional presidents to resubmit the names to the election commission.

The President of HirShabelle, Ali Gudwale, announced that he would not be attending the meeting between regional presidents and prime minister Hussein Roble. The statement said that the President, who is in Turkey, did not specify why he is boycotting the meeting. Local reports indicate that he did not like that Prime Minister Roble did not invite him personally. Prime Minister Roble called President Gudwale and convinced him to attend the meeting through zoom.

Following a four-day meeting between Prime Minister Roble and the regional presidents, an election timetable was created, providing relief to Somalis on the way forward. Over the next four months, through indirect elections, Somalia should elect the members of both the lower and upper houses of parliament, Prime Minister and President. The presidential election should take place on 10 October.

Somalia’s international community welcomed the new development, adding that the election schedule shows the Somali public the government’s will to ensure the election takes place.

Prime Minister Roble travelled to Kismayo, the administrative capital of Jubaland state, to meet with various stakeholders to solve the Gedo dispute. The Gedo dispute is one of the contentious issues for the upcoming election where the pro-federal-government administration in Gedo region are at loggerheads with President Madobe. The Gedo politicians do not want President Madobe appointed officials to oversee the election in Garbaharey since they believe the election will be rigged in President Madobe’s favour. Additionally, to eliminate the risk of losing power in Jubaland, local reports say President Madobe would like the election to take place in one town, Kismayo, instead of two.

Therefore, Prime Minister Roble visited Kismayo and Garbaharey towns to solve the standoff between the two sides. While in Kismayo, PM Roble met with President Madobe and his Cabinet and security officials to discuss the Gedo issue and election security. He also travelled to Garbaharey to discuss similar issues with the regional administration. While in both towns, the Prime Minister urged the elders to play a key role In resolving regional conflicts.

The Gedo dispute resolution committee is expected to travel to both towns for a fact finding mission to understand how to solve the issue before the election takes place.    

Fawzia Yusuf Haji Adan has announced her candidacy for president of Somalia in the upcoming election, scheduled for 10 October this year. Fawzia Adan has held top government posts, including Foreign Affairs Minister and Deputy Prime Minister (November 2012-January 2014) during Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s presidency (2012-17). In an interview, Fawzia stated that she would prioritise security, economic empowerment and education if elected president. While addressing women in politics and Islam, she asserted that the religion does not stop women from entering. She added that women are making positive changes in majority Islamic countries like Pakistan and Indonesia. She added that Samia Suluhu, the president of Tanzania, should inspire other Muslim women.
Somali Prime Minister Roble, Mohamed Hussein Roble, has intervened to quell tension between the two factions formed within the Somaliland electoral committee. The committee is divided into two factions, one supporting Speaker of the House, Abdi Hashi, and the other faction supporting Deputy Prime Minister Mahdi Gulaid. Both factions have elected their own chairperson and deputy. In a tweet, the PM’s spokesperson stated “that his office is so committed to managing the elections in a transparent and impartial manner.’
In an audio message, Al-Shabaab issued threats to aspirants in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The audio message, purportedly recorded by the group leader, Ahmed Umar Abu Ubaidah, warned delegates who will partake in the election, saying that they should not make the same mistakes as their predecessors who believed that the elections are secret. The leader of al-Shabaab is alluding to local rumour mill allegations that those delegates who did not vote in Al-Shabaab’s favour were killed. 21 July 2021: UN delivers ballots to regional states as election nears

The UN Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) delivered ballots for the upcoming parliamentary elections in the regional states to Puntland and Jubaland. The members of each regional Electoral Implementation Committees received the electoral equipment and materials in Garowe and Kismayo. 

According to the timeline created by the Federal Electoral Commission (FEC), the upper house elections are scheduled to take place between 25-28 July following the creation of regional electoral committees and the nomination of candidates. However, four days to the deadline, no regional state has started the process. Regional analysts affirm that the elections will be delayed as many issues are still not resolved locally. Additionally, some regional presidents are on working visits outside the country while one regional assembly is on break until 1 August.

Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble urged regional leaders to start the electoral process for the election of the Upper House parliament members. The Federal Electoral Commission (FEC) scheduled the elections between 25-28 July. PM Roble urged the other regional states to follow the example of Jubaland, who had started the electoral process.
The fragmented process in Jubaland starts with the election of four out of the eight senators. Nine candidates, including one woman, are vying for the election of the four senatorial seats. Three out of the four nominees are ex-senators, including Fartaag and Iftin Baasto, who are seeking re-election. The four senators elected in Jubaland are: 1) Mr Ilyas Bedal Gabose, former governor of Lower Juba and close ally of President Madobe, 2) Abdullahi Sheikh Ismail Fartaag, an incumbent senator who hails from President Farmaajo’s clan, 3) Abdirizak Mohamed Osman, and 4) Iftin Hassan Iman Baasto. 

The Somaliland president, Muse Bihi, welcomed the newly elected Speaker of the House of Representatives, Abdirizak Khalif. Somaliland, an independent country but not intentionally recognised by any country, held a successful election on 31 May 2021 that led to the opposition taking over the House of Representatives. The new Speaker, Khalif, hailing from the main opposition party, Waddani, was welcomed to the presidential palace with this deputy.
Both Somali President Abdullahi Farmaajo and Prime Minister Roble release separate decrees contrary to one another over agreements with foreign countries following the announcement that the PM is travelling to Kenya. The presidential decree suspended all agreements between Somalia and foreign countries. “Until after the elections, all ministries and government agencies are prohibited from entering agreements or talks on behalf of the Federal Government of Somalia that affect the future, sovereignty, the land and the sea of our country,” the decree said in part. In response, the PM released a statement saying that all government agencies will continue to discharge their duties in accordance with the law. The statement further stated that the Prime Minister’s Cabinet has the mandate to enter any agreement or negotiation to strengthen Somalia’s relations with other countries. Regional president from Puntland, Said Deni, who is opposed to President Farmaajo, issued a statement condemning President Farmaajo’s decree and applauded PM Roble for standing up against the president. “The Government of Puntland commends Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble for leading the country in the transition period, for holding elections and for strengthening Somalia’s diplomatic relations with the world,” a statement from Puntland read in part.
Somali Prime minister Hussein Roble made his first official visit to Kenya since taking office in 2019 after receiving an official invitation from the Kenyan president. His visit aimed to fully restore diplomatic and business relations between Kenya and Somalia. PM Roble was welcomed by Kenya’s President, Uhuru Kenyatta, at the coastal city of Mombasa. In his address, President Kenyatta welcomed the new era of Kenya- Somali relations, underscoring the importance of regional stability. While in Kenya, PM Roble met with some of the members of the Somali business community in Mombasa and Nairobi, where they discussed improving trading relations. The meeting comes as Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Raychelle Omamo, travelled to Mogadishu to meet with her Somali counterpart, Mohamed Abdirizak. Following the meeting, the Somali foreign affairs minister tweeted, “It’s indeed a revitalised beginning for us as we seek to foster our diplomatic and bilateral ties.” Prior to leaving Mogadishu, CS Omamo met with Somali Prime Minister Roble, where they also discussed promoting diplomatic relations between the two neighbouring countries. While there, she officially opened the Kenyan embassy in Mogadishu. Two months prior to her visit, the two countries restored relations through series of statements.

The Union of Presidential Candidates (UPC), a coalition of opposition leaders, meet in Mogadishu to discuss the ongoing impasse on the election of the Upper House delegates from Somaliland. As previously reported, the Somaliland Upper House election has been complicated by the creation of two factions, one allied to the outgoing speaker of the Upper House, Abdi Hashi and the other allied to the Deputy Prime Minister Gulaid. Despite the impasse, the Prime Minister allowed the election of Somaliland poll team leadership, which the Hashi faction did not partake in. After the chairperson and deputy election, PM spokesperson tweeted, “PM Mohamed Roble congratulated the elected board members of the Somaliland Electoral Commission SIET on Saturday and urged them to accelerate the election process in collaboration with the FEIT. PM Roble reiterated that he would continue to reconcile Somaliland politicians.”

The heads of the AU and UN Missions in Somalia, AMISOM and UNSOM, respectively, briefed the UN Security Council (UNSC) on the ongoing electoral process and security situation in Somalia UNSOM head, James Swan, told the council said that Al-Shabaab still posed a threat to the election process. AMISOM head, Francisco Madeira, agreed with UNSOM head, adding that AMISOM troops and Somali troops have been conducting operations around the country, focusing on towns hosting the election process. On the election process, James Swan lauded Prime Minister Roble for his continued efforts to ensure the election takes place by having regular meetings with the regional presidents and other local and international stakeholders.

Prior to the address, UNSOM signed over a portion of the election budget worth 7.7 million dollars to help with the government expenses, including public awareness campaigns, ensuring a 30% quota is upheld, and administrative operations.

The Union of Presidential Candidates (UPC), a coalition of opposition leaders, meet in Mogadishu to discuss the political situation in the country. The three-day meeting focused on the ongoing Upper House of Parliament election. South West State is the second state after Puntland to complete the Upper House election, while Jubaland and Galmudug have partially completed the process. On the other hand, HirShabelle and Somaliland states are yet to begin the process. They also discussed how to learn from the Upper House electoral process so that the Lower House of Parliament election goes smoothly. 

Former Jubaland Security Minister Abdirashid Janan has a fallout with President Farmaajo and National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), Fahad Yasin, over his intentions to run for Lower House election. Janan and President Farmaajo joined forces against Jubaland President, Ahmed Islam “Madobe” to influence the election in Gedo region. Janan was on the run for several months after he escaped from a jail in Mogadishu, where he was accused of violating the human rights of prisoners in Jubaland when he was security minister. His formed alliance with President Farmaajo led to all charges against him being dropped.

The fallout between Janan and President Farmaajo and his camp has implications in Gedo region. Militias allied to Janan in Dolow district in Gedo region has been active in the area. Back in Mogadishu, Janan moved out of his premise that was protected by intelligence officials to another house in the city, deep in opposition territory.

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