Late on Monday the 20^th of April, South Korea-based website Daily NK reported that Kim Jong Un was recovering from a cardiovascular operation. Since then, rumours have been swirling about his condition. Various media organisations throughout the world have reported a multitude of possibilities, with some sources even claiming that Kim Jong Un may be dead or in a vegetative state. These reports have spread like wildfire through the internet, with #KIMJONGUNDEAD trending on social media for the past week. What’s really happening?

The North Korean leader has not been seen in public for some time. International concerns about his health started to mount on the 15^th of April, when Kim Jong Un missed the annual celebration of Kim Il Sung’s birthday. North Korean media made no mention of him in daily news headlines, focusing instead on anti-coronavirus measures and the self-sufficient economy. A few days later, Reuters reported that China had dispatched a team of medical experts to the reclusive nation. These events have led to massive speculation over the condition of Kim’s health.

A Washington-based think tank which monitors North Korea, 38 North, reported on the 25^th of April that a special train belonging to North Korean leadership was parked at the “leadership station” in Wonsan on the 21^st and 23^rd of April. “The train’s presence does not prove the whereabouts of the North Korean leader or indicate anything about his health but it does lend weight to reports that Kim is staying at an elite area on the country’s eastern coast,” the report said. This could reinforce a claim made that Kim is currently rehabilitating after surgery, but without on-the-ground reports it is difficult to know.

The tightly-controlled media of the North Korean state has contributed massively to international speculation. In many other nations, the media is often free to report on the health and affairs of their leaders – see the BBC and Boris Johnson’s experience of COVID-19 for ample evidence of this. However, in North Korea (and many other repressive regimes), media reporting on political affairs is tightly monitored, and anything that could denigrate the leader or cause ‘instability’ is not allowed. As such, the only reports of Kim Jong Un’s health at this point come from defectors or intelligence assets located in the area. This provides ample ground for misinformation. U.S. sources have made claims of Kim Jong Un’s death or incapacitation, while South Korean and Chinese officials have both dismissed these very same claims.

As the situation currently stands, the most likely scenario is this: Kim Jong Un had cardiovascular surgery at some point in recent weeks, and is currently being monitored by a health team. It is likely that he is in Wonsan, based on satellite images, and this is probably for rehabilitation. Now, it is entirely possible that complications arose during surgery – Kim is overweight, a heavy smoker, and has a family history of cardiovascular illness – but doing anything more than acknowledging this is speculation.

So, what happens if Kim Jong Un really is incapacitated? It is unlikely that this would lead to huge change in the reclusive nation. North Korea has undergone two leadership changes since its establishment, both due to the death of the previous leader. Kim Jong Il was trained for 20 years to take over from his father, and the founder of North Korea, Kim Il Sung. Kim Jong Un, meanwhile, was reportedly trained for around a year. If he has been incapacitated, two immediate candidates emerge: his sister, Kim Yo Jong, or Communist Party elders. The accession of either to leadership of the nation means little for the average North Korean citizen. Unless significant change occurs in North Korea’s political culture, the North Korean people will continue to be oppressed. Even if Kim Jong Un is dead, the hereditary, nuclear-armed rogue state remains.