The Colombian Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development announced that the deforestation forecast in the Amazon region decreased by 25% to 35% last year, marking a significant step forward in the fight against deforestation and environmental degradation in one of the world’s most vital ecosystems. Despite the progress made last year, the situation may be poised for change as deforestation in Colombia’s Amazon is expected to climb again this year. Government data released on Monday showed a 40% surge in deforestation over the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

Susana Muhamad, Colombia’s Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development, noted that although early reports forecasted forest loss in the Colombian Amazon to have plummeted by 49% in 2023, the final figure will most likely stand between 25% and 35%. Minister Muhamad voiced concerns regarding the adverse impact of armed groups on local communities and the environment. The ongoing conflict places both human lives and nature at risk, complicating conservation endeavors. Colombia is one of the world’s deadliest countries for environmentalists, where dozens of activists are killed every year for their efforts, according to advocacy group Global Witness. This level of danger presents significant challenges for conservation efforts and highlights the need for greater protection and support for environmental defenders.

Under Gustavo Petro’s government, Colombia’s first left-wing administration, previous trends were reversed by negotiating with armed rebels who filled the power vacuum left by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia after the 2016 peace accord. Deforestation across Colombia fell by 29% from 2021 to 2022, reaching its lowest level since 2013. Preliminary data suggests a further 25% to 35% drop in 2023. The Estado Mayor Central (E.M.C.), a group of dissident rebels controlling vast areas of Colombia’s southern forests, contributed to this decline by banning forest clearing in 2022 to secure a place at the negotiation table with Petro’s government.

The reduction in deforestation last year is an encouraging development, especially considering the immense ecological importance of the Amazon rainforest. Efforts to preserve this vital ecosystem are essential for the planet’s health and well-being. However, as the talks became strained, the E.M.C. revoked the ban. Rather than protecting the Amazon, the E.M.C. now allows land grabbers to clear forests to demonstrate their control over the region and negotiate more favorable terms with the government. “The environment has become a bargaining chip,” said Angelica Rojas, a liaison officer for the Guaviare department at the Foundation for Conservation and Sustainable Development, a Colombian environmental think tank. Despite the progress, deforestation surged by 41% in the last three months of 2023 compared to the previous year, totaling 18,400 hectares. This concerning trend persisted into 2024, with forest loss up by 40% in the first three months of the year. Hotspots in the Meta, Caquetá, and Guaviare departments, all E.M.C. strongholds, suffer from cattle farming and cocoa production encroaching on delicate, biodiverse ecosystems like the Guiana Shield. The E.M.C.’s revocation of its ban on deforestation and its “psychological game” with local communities have resulted in armed rebels displacing locals, killing environmental activists, and expelling government officials. “Nature is being put in the middle of the conflict,” Minister Susana Muhamad said.

The government’s efforts last year mark a step forward; however, the battle against deforestation remains daunting. As Colombia prepares to host the C.O.P.16 U.N. biodiversity summit later this year, the government has increasingly called for advancing global efforts to preserve and restore the Amazon Basin. C.O.P., or Conference of the Parties, refers to the annual gathering of member countries under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, where they collaborate to address environmental challenges, set goals, and negotiate agreements to combat climate change and its impacts. According to Reuters, researcher Nobre estimated that restoring the 700,000 square kilometers needed to prevent the Amazon’s extinction would cost at least $20 billion.

The combined challenges of climate change effects and human conflict point to a challenging road ahead for sustainable forest management and protection. This situation emphasizes the critical need for persistent and strengthened measures to safeguard Colombia’s invaluable biodiversity for future generations. Continued vigilance and investment in sustainable practices will be key to maintaining this trend and ensuring the survival of the Amazon and its vital role in global climate regulation.