Christmas Market Attack in Germany Sparks Uncertainty Before February Elections

In an act of terror on December 20th, a 50-year-old man drove a vehicle into a crowded Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, killing five people and injuring at least 200. The attacker, Taleb al-Abdulmohsen, immigrated from Saudi Arabia to Germany in 2006. Al-Abdulmohsen has been charged with multiple counts of murder and attempted murder.

German authorities claim that al-Abdulmohsen had expressed anti-Islamic views and shown support for the far-right anti-immigration party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD), despite being an immigrant himself. The AfD party has gained recognition in state governments across Germany in recent years and is among other right-wing groups in Europe that support anti-immigration policies. Support for AfD has spiked since the attack amid dissatisfaction with Germany’s current immigration policy and intelligence shortcomings. As Germany heads towards snap elections in less than two months, voting results will show the potential effect of the Christmas market attack on national-level politics. 

Immigration has been a divisive issue in German politics for many years as crises in the Middle East have forced millions of refugees to Europe’s borders over the last decade. Al-Abdulmohsen expressed frustration with the state of the German immigration policies via social media prior to the attack, which, in combination with his identity as an immigrant, provided fuel for a protest led by the AfD earlier this week. Experts such as Justus von Daniels, Editor in Chief of the German publication Correctiv, note that the increased salience of migration in response to the attack is “not healthy for the political debate” as it gives far-right groups an event to mobilize around (Al Jazeera).

Since the Dec. 20th attack, evidence suggesting that the government had prior knowledge of al-Abdulmohsen’s violent intentions has prompted groups in Germany to call out a mass intelligence failure at the hands of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. President of the Federal Criminal Police Office Holger Münch pointed to the “completely atypical pattern” of al-Abdulmohsen, claiming the attack was unpredictable based on official records (CNN). However, several sources attest that German authorities received direct warnings from Saudi Arabia about al-Abdulmohsen before the attack, and his social media posts from the last decade have a clear trend of intolerance towards the German state.

Opposition parties from the left and right have questioned the current intelligence apparatus. Germany’s Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has already voiced several improvements that could be made to national security in the country, including increasing personnel and introducing biometric surveillance (Reuters). However, simple statements cannot sufficiently address the German people’s dissatisfaction with their government’s failure to prevent the attack in the first place. As doubt about the current government’s ability to improve intelligence increases, Sholz’s government must find a way to address skepticism by taking action on Faeser’s points before the elections, which are set to take place on February 23rd.

Political tensions were already high in Germany before the December 20th attack, as last month the ruling coalition received a vote of no confidence. Now, Chancellor Scholz calls for national unity, despite the worsening polarization associated with the Christmas market attack. Distrust in German intelligence services and anti-immigration sentiment has pushed a significant portion of German voters to support the AfD party–a fact that is especially worrying as upcoming elections could make Germany one of several European countries to fall under the control of a far-right party. With less than two months to act, parties running against the AfD must make compelling suggestions to improve Germany’s current intelligence situation and address voters mobilized by the immigration issue.

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