On September 25, 2024, China conducted a rare and high-profile test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which was launched into the Pacific Ocean. This test marked the first time in over four decades that China publicly fired an ICBM beyond its borders, marking a significant shift in its defence strategy. The launch, conducted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force, involved a missile carrying a dummy warhead and landed in the Pacific. China’s Defence Ministry said the test was part of its “routine annual training” and emphasised that it was not aimed at any particular country. However, the timing and nature of the test have raised concerns throughout the Indo-Pacific region, where tensions between China and its neighbours, as well as the United States, have been escalating.

Reactions to the missile launch were swift and critical. The U.S. Pentagon acknowledged receiving “some advanced notification” from China but reiterated concerns over the potential for miscalculation in such high-stakes military activities. Japan expressed “serious concern” and criticised China for failing to warn its government. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida voiced his displeasure, stating that China’s military buildup was destabilising the region. Australia and New Zealand also expressed alarm, with Australian officials describing the test as “destabilising” and increasing the risk of miscalculation in an already tense security environment. Experts like Leif-Eric Easley, Professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul, saw the test as a warning to the U.S. and its allies, highlighting the vulnerability of the American homeland to long-range missile attacks if a conflict over Taiwan were to erupt.

While China framed the missile test as routine, it sends a worrying message about the country’s growing military assertiveness. In recent years, China has significantly expanded its defence capabilities, particularly in missile technology, with its latest ICBM, the DF-41, capable of striking the U.S. mainland. These developments suggest a shift in China’s strategic thinking, from a traditionally defensive nuclear posture to a more assertive stance, which aims to deter U.S. involvement in regional disputes over Taiwan or the South China Sea. Although China claims its nuclear arsenal is focused on deterrence, this test demonstrates an increasing willingness to showcase its military might to influence regional dynamics. Instead of de-escalating tensions via diplomacy and multilateral engagement, China’s actions further militarise the Indo-Pacific and undermine peace in the region.

China’s ICBM test must be viewed in the context of its broader defence strategy and geopolitical ambitions. Under President Xi Jinping, China has modernised its military, particularly its nuclear forces, as part of a broader plan to challenge U.S. dominance in the region. China has been rapidly expanding its missile arsenal and building new ICBM silos in its western deserts. According to a 2023 Pentagon report, China possessed over 500 nuclear warheads, a number expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030. Historically, China maintained a smaller nuclear stockpile, emphasising deterrence rather than parity with the U.S. and Russia. However, its recent actions, including the ICBM test, indicate a shift towards a more aggressive posture. The test comes amid growing tensions between China and its neighbours, with recent naval clashes involving the Philippines, airspace violations over Japan, and continued military drills near Taiwan, all contributing to a volatile security environment.

China’s ICBM test are concerning for global peace and security. The launch is likely to exacerbate already fragile security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, and could potentially trigger an arms race in the region. Neighbouring countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia may feel compelled to bolster their own missile defences, leading to a security dilemma where one state’s militarisation prompts a similar response from others. Additionally, this test highlights the risk of miscalculation in a region where tensions are already high, particularly around Taiwan. China’s assertive military actions could push the U.S. and its allies to deepen their security commitments, further polarising the region.

Moving forward, it is imperative that diplomatic efforts are prioritised to prevent further escalation. Regional and international actors, including ASEAN, the United States, and other powers in the Indo-Pacific must talk to China to address concerns surrounding its military expansion. Confidence-building measures, such as preemptive notifications of missile tests and transparency regarding military exercises, could help mitigate the risk of miscalculation. Additionally, renewed efforts toward arms control agreements—similar to those established during the Cold War—are crucial for managing the growing nuclear threat in the region. Only through sustained diplomatic engagement and a commitment to peaceful solutions can the international community ensure stability in the Indo-Pacific and prevent the region from becoming a flashpoint for conflict.