China’s Ambitious Dam Project Could Cause Conflict With India

The Indian foreign ministry is concerned about China’s plans to build a dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River, which flows through Tibet and then curves through Northeast India and Bangladesh, where it is known as the Brahmaputra River. The dam project, which is estimated to cost as much as $127 billion, was approved by China last month. Once completed, it will surpass the Three Gorges Dam as the largest hydropower dam in the world, and produce three times more power. China has dismissed concerns that the dam will impede the flow of the river downstream, thus hitting the economic and ecological benefits that India and Bangladesh gain from the river.

Indian foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal expressed concern that India’s downstream states would be harmed by the project. “We will continue to monitor and take necessary measures to protect our interests,” said Jaiswal according to Reuters. Yet China has said that they have a “legitimate right” to dam the river and that it will be “a safe project that prioritizes ecological protection.”

American think tank U.S. Institute for World Peace pointed out that the dam might not impact India much after all, since the portion of the river that flows through Northeast India gets most of its water volume from rain in the region. Thus, the dam might not substantially decrease the water that flows into the Bay of Bengal. However, there is a possibility of the landscape being dramatically altered by the dam, causing an ecological dilemma. Some experts have also flagged the area as being in threat of earthquakes and landslides during construction.

India is not the only one concerned; Tibetan Buddhists have been protesting dams in the region, leading to violent crackdowns against them. Human rights groups are worried about the mass displacement that will result for people who live in the area, which occurred when the Three Gorges Dam was constructed.

India and China were already treading on unstable ground before the dam project’s approval. Just a few months ago, a pact between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi ended a four-year standoff between the two countries. In 2020, a clash in the Himalayas left twenty Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers dead, creating volatile conditions along the border.

Regardless of how much India will be impacted by the dam, China seems to be taking a big risk with this project, especially fresh off the end of the standoff. While the country is allowed to build dams in its territory under the norms of sovereignty, in this case, the impact will ripple beyond its borders. Therefore, China should be upfront with India about its plans, and the two should discuss all the potential impacts on humans and the environment. If they have these discussions before the dam is completed, they might be able to mitigate some of the downsides of the project and avoid future confrontations. Without openness and collaboration, disputes and tensions could escalate. Raised tensions would be a negative outcome for maintaining peace between the two powerhouses, who both hold nuclear weapons.

The Yarlung Zangbo dam project raises questions about the limits of sovereignty, especially when one country’s actions deeply impact another. If India and China can collaborate on an agreement, it could serve as a model to the rest of the world, showcasing a commitment to global cooperation and clean energy. China must consider its next actions carefully to avoid conflict.

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