For many it is just a rumour, for others an undisputed fact: President Xi Jinping has set the unofficial date for the Chinese military invasion of Taiwan for 2027. Current U.S. Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, was in Singapore on Saturday for the annual Shangri-La Dialogue. This annual inter-governmental security conference looks to cultivate a sense of community between the Asia-Pacific states, but is often used as a platform for economic rivals, such as the United States and China, to pitch their investment and influence to the region. During last year’s dialogue, the U.S. Defence Secretary at the time under President Joe Biden, Lloyd Austin, directly addressed maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait but made it clear that the Biden Administration wanted to be restrained and diplomatic with the Chinese. This year’s dialogue, however, was noticeably different, not only in the much larger U.S. delegation and much smaller Chinese delegation, but also in Secretary Hegseth’s address, in the description of China as a “real and imminent threat” to Taiwan and the greater region. Whilst Hegseth’s rhetoric in 2025 shows a clear shift to a United States with a much more militarised and adversarial stance than in 2024, the real question is whether this shift is due to China’s intensified ambitions in Taiwan, or Donald Trump’s more aggressive stance when it comes to U.S. foreign policy in general.

Either way, China did not respond well to Hegseth’s comments at the dialogue, warning that the U.S. should not “play with fire” with its actions in the Asia-Pacific region and that its Cold War mentality would turn the region into a “powder keg.” Whilst many may see the Defence Secretary’s comments as inflammatory, it is clear that over the last year, despite China being “behind schedule” when it comes to a 2027 invasion, the country has become increasingly more active around Taiwan, with an increase in military drills, naval presence, and air incursions. Additionally, with its continued increase in spending and efforts to modernise its military, partnered with the current United States administration’s policy of non-intervention, it is possible that an act of aggression in the region could be likely before Trump is out of office.

Since the President’s inauguration in January, beginning his second term in office, Trump has completely changed the world of foreign affairs. His current policy of non-intervention, as mentioned before, has left power vacuums in all corners. Whilst the global community is now trying to deal with this new reality, especially when it comes to the pre-existing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, it also has the effect of showing China and President Xi that without the weight of the United States, the international community is relatively unprepared in dealing with these conflicts. This dangerous new president only increases the likelihood of aggression from China.

Since the end of the Chinese Civil War and the creation of the Republic of China (R.O.C.) in Taiwan in 1949, both Chinas, the R.O.C. and the P.R.C., have claimed to represent China and have denounced the other. Mainland China considers Taiwan a rebel province, whereas Taiwan sees itself as a completely sovereign nation. In the 1970s the global community agreed to recognise the P.R.C. as the legitimate government of China, yet has consistently maintained unofficial relations with Taiwan, which include arms sales to help the nation defend itself. Whilst there has been tension between these two states since the initial split, it has never been as high as it is now.

Ultimately, avoiding a conflict between China and Taiwan and ensuring the sovereignty of Taiwan is of paramount importance, not only whilst the Trump administration is in charge of the United States, but also beyond this time, as China becomes more capable of an attack. The best way to do this is to show President Xi, and China, that acts of aggression and modern-day imperialism are unacceptable for the international community. This would begin by showing a unified front against the major conflicts currently underway, and whilst this may seem difficult to pull off, to avoid acts of aggression of this kind in the future, it is the bare minimum.