On 24 September, China, recognized as the world’s biggest source and largest emitter of planet-warming gases, pledged to cut its climate emissions. President Xi Jinping, in a video statement to the United Nations, established the target for China of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions across the economy by 7–10% from peak levels by 2035. This announcement marked the first time China has set emissions reduction targets and instituted the country’s new Nationally Determined Contribution (N.D.C.).

The announcement generated varied responses from high-level officials and climate experts. Yao Zhe, a global policy adviser at Greenpeace East Asia, stated that “Even for those with tempered expectations, what’s presented today still falls short” of what is needed to keep global climate goals feasible. Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst and co-founder at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (C.R.E.A.), strongly asserted that in order to limit warming to 1.5°C or even well below 2°C, China would have to make much larger cuts, such as “more than a 50% reduction” by 2035. However, other analysts noted the profound importance of the pledge and expressed optimism toward the initiative. Belinda Schäpe, a China analyst at C.R.E.A., noted that the pace at which China reduces emissions will have a deep global impact since once China’s emissions begin to drop, global emissions will likely follow suit. Furthermore, experts highlighted China’s strong track record of exceeding previous climate commitments, such as its goal of reaching 1,200 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity, which has been completed six years in advance.

This landmark commitment by China to restrict greenhouse gas emissions to an absolute target is surely a powerful step for the global climate crisis. These important policy decisions, such as the investment in wind and solar capacity, increasing forest stocks, and focus on new energy vehicles, represent realistic and concrete actions that mark the beginning of decarbonisation after decades of rapid emissions growth. China must build upon this crucial initial pledge, taking advantage of its proven capacity for rapid technological deployment to set more ambitious climate targets to secure a stable planetary future.

The recent announcement of emissions targets by China must be acknowledged within the current context of global climate diplomacy. China is the world’s largest emitter of planet-warming gases, having surpassed the United States in total carbon dioxide emissions in 2006. In 2023, China was responsible for 35% of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions, equivalent to more than a quarter of planet-warming emissions. Prior to the new pledge, China had already committed in 2021 to peaking its CO₂ emissions this decade, before 2030, and achieving “carbon neutrality” before 2060. The new commitment, to reduce G.H.G. emissions by 7–10% from peak levels by 2035, is significant because it is the first time China has officially outlined its post-peaking plan and set actual emissions reduction targets on its path toward 2060 carbon neutrality.

These climate commitments carry multiple geopolitical implications, especially at a time when the US is reversing its climate agreements. Since its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement for the second time, China is potentially increasing its influence within the climate movement, particularly among developing nations. Conversely, deep decarbonisation efforts may also carry important domestic stability risks for Beijing, as the country’s leadership has previously expressed concern that stringent carbon caps could lead to an economic slowdown, resulting in “massive unemployment and social unrest.” It is clear that the success or failure of this pledge will shape and impact the global geopolitical balance, influencing the international commitments to face the climate crisis.