A recent exchange between China and Japan at the U.N. highlights fragile relations between the two regional powers. In a series of four letters, the two sides traded criticisms and rebuttals. China focused heavily on remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding potential Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Their letters described the marks as “erroneous and extremely dangerous,” arguing that they challenged the post-war order and threatened peace in the region. They also accused Japanese responses of “dodging the key issues” and attempting to shift blame to China. Japan, meanwhile, described the claims as “unsubstantiated” and repeatedly emphasized its defense-oriented posture and commitment to peace and dialogue.

As briefly mentioned, the current escalation stems from remarks made by Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi, in which she told parliament that Chinese military aggression against Taiwan could become “a survival-threatening situation.” The statement marked a significant departure from traditional diplomatic methods in Japan. Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer in Japanese studies, told Al Jazeera that “this has been the unofficial position of Japan … for many years, but prime ministers just don’t say it [out loud].” Japan does not have any official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, though they are close neighbors and unofficial allies, with legislators meeting regularly, according to Al Jazeera.

Ambiguity around the status of the island mounts with China’s official stance: that Taiwan is a part of China and falls within its internal affairs. The position of the government of China is that Taiwan is a rogue province that will be reunified with the mainland, one way or another. The strategic significance (both geographical and economic), paired with China’s recent increase in military activities around the island make this a particularly concerning position. China has repeatedly expressed frustration and accused the US of encircling it with military bases from Australia to Japan. Full Chinese ownership of Taiwan would break that ‘island chain’ and give China increased access to the vast Pacific Ocean, according to the B.B.C.

Thankfully, conflict has not yet broken out, and time for dialogue has again been extended. Calm, professional dialogue will be crucial for the de-escalation of such instances. The use of the U.N. platform as a first pass to resolve the escalation provides some much-needed hope, and although the threat has not dissipated (and in fact remains highly active), it signals some amount of good faith between the two parties in avoiding direct military confrontation.

It is particularly important in moments of potential conflict that one considers the impact it may have on a human scale. Many people currently living in Taiwan have family or friends in mainland China, and the same could be said of Japan. The three states exist in close proximity geographically, economically, politically, and most importantly, personally. A conflict in the region would be costly to everyone directly involved, as well as many indirectly involved. As Sting so delicately puts it in his song Russians, “There is no such thing as a winnable war.” Dialogue will be critical in preventing geopolitical ambitions from dominating our humanity.

For more related content, visit the OWP Asia/Pacific crisis index page.