On 22 March local time, the Eleventh Foreign Ministers’ Meeting of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (R.O.K.), also known as South Korea, was held in Tokyo, Japan. The meeting aimed to promote trilateral cooperation in the fields of economy, people-to-people exchanges, science and technology innovation, and make preparations for the next trilateral summit. On the same day, China and Japan also held the sixth China–Japan high-level economic dialogue, which was resumed after six years, and reached 20 cooperation agreements.

On 30 March, the Thirteenth Trilateral Economic and Trade Ministers’ Meeting was held in Seoul. The meeting focused on implementing the important consensus in the economic and trade field reached at the Ninth Trilateral Summit, and it exchanged in-depth views on strengthening trade and investment cooperation as well as regional and multilateral cooperation. After the meeting, the economic and trade departments of the three countries jointly issued the Joint press Statement of the Thirteenth China–Japan–R.O.K. Economic and Trade Ministers’ Meeting.

The cooperation consensus reached at the high-level meeting of China, Japan, and South Korea mainly includes four areas: breaking the ice in trade and economy, technology empowerment, people-to-people exchanges,  and multilateral coordination. Among other things, the three countries agreed to establish a dialogue mechanism for digital economy cooperation, build an “Asian version of Silicon Valley” by cooperating in fields such as A.I. and new energy, enrich cultural exchange and tourism between the countries, strengthen cooperation under the A.S.E.A.N. framework, and deepen cooperation in traditional areas such as health care, green development, disaster management, security challenges, and ecological and environmental protection. The countries also pledged to restart free trade agreement negotiations and expand economic collaboration, which could form a super economic circle comparable to the E.U. The agreement upholds the concept of open and inclusive regional cooperation and emphasizes that “Asian affairs should be led by Asia.”

China, Japan, and South Korea have been at odds over historical grievances, geopolitical games, and territorial disputes. A few years ago, tensions flared over the Diaoyu Islands dispute between China and Japan, and relations between China and South Korea also intensified over the latter country’s deployment of T.H.A.A.D. Meanwhile, conflicts between Japan and South Korea have continued over historical issues. Is the recent intensive friendly interaction between China, Japan and South Korea a stopgap measure to respond passively to U.S. pressure, or the strategic awakening of the initiative to build a community of shared future? The sudden hand-holding of the three East Asian countries, which were once at loggerheads, has aroused widespread discussion in the outside world.

The motivations for the recent cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea are, first of all, the Trump administration’s “America first” policy and the indiscriminate “tariff stick,” which forced the three parties to stick together. The United States plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on goods from China, Japan, and South Korea, and it is prudent for the three countries to discuss joint countermeasures and hedge risks through regional cooperation. This consensus has become a potential driving force to promote trilateral cooperation. Second, the three countries have formed an inseparable community of shared interests: they all belong to the Confucian cultural sphere, share similar values and cultural heritage, and are far more closely linked economically than many think. Together, the three countries account for more than 25% of the world’s G.D.P. and 20% of the world’s trade, and the annual trade between the three countries is more than 700 billion U.S. dollars.

Due to multiple factors such as geographical proximity, cultural affinity, and differences in development stages, China, Japan, and South Korea can complement each other and share resources, whether in the economic field, trade field, or scientific and technological innovation field. In the field of high-end manufacturing, China’s high-speed rail, 5G communication, and other technologies and industries, Japan’s precision machinery and electronic components, and South Korea’s display and semiconductor, each have their own characteristics and complement each other. Cooperation among the three countries can achieve coordinated development of the whole industrial chain from resource collection, technology research and development to product manufacturing. All three parties will pay a heavy price if this network of cooperation is forcibly dismantled. Finally, the progress of North Korea’s nuclear and missile development in East Asia, the continuous escalation of the U.S.–Japan–R.O.K. military alliance, and security anxiety under high-intensity military pressure will lead to the need for deepening cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea in non-traditional security fields such as counter-terrorism and disaster management.

Although the current trilateral cooperation situation is improving, there are also some hidden worries about cooperation. Historical issues remain unresolved, and there is a risk of foreign intervention, especially from the constraints of the United States. Whether in military bases or security guarantees, Japan and South Korea are deeply dependent on the United States. This binding structure is difficult to change in the short term. If the Trump administration puts pressure on Japan and South Korea on its China policy, the cooperation and coordination mechanism already agreed between the three countries may be suspended or destroyed. Additionally, the game of interest distribution is a point of concern. The F.T.A. negotiations to be resumed by the three countries involve sensitive areas such as chips, semiconductors, and agricultural and sideline products, and the trade deficit between Japan and South Korea with China may aggravate cooperation differences.

On the occasion of the warming atmosphere of cooperation in East Asia, the Japanese and U.S. defense ministers held talks in Tokyo on 30 March, and the two sides reaffirmed that they would strengthen the Japan–U.S. alliance. The U.S. has launched the first phase of the plan to upgrade the U.S. forces in Japan to a “joint operations command” and achieve synchronous coordination and immediate response with the newly established “Integrated Operations Command” in Japan. On the same day, Japan suddenly swung a tariff stick on Chinese graphite electrodes, with a tax rate of 95.2%. On the one hand, Japan wants to protect the local graphite electrode industry with excessive tariffs; on the other hand, Japan seems to echo the “key mineral alliance” policy implemented by the United States, indicating that it will closely follow the United States’ China policy, which also confirms the previous analysis of the prospect of trilateral cooperation. Due to trust deficit, historical issues, national sentiment, divergent interests, and interference from other regions, the complicated regional situation has become more complicated and confusing, and the three countries still face many obstacles to truly achieving deep integration. The author estimates that the cooperation will lead to a breakthrough in relations that will lead to further cooperation, but there is friction in cooperation, so the upward trend will likely not be a straight line.

At present, the geopolitical pattern of the world has quietly changed, and the center of gravity of the global economy is accelerating its eastward shift. Asia is becoming the main driving force and engine of world economic growth. As important economies in the region and the world at large, China, Japan, and South Korea hope that all parties can show greater political wisdom and long-term vision, transcend historical grievances, break through geopolitical interference, choose mutual benefit, and jointly build a new order in Asia. This not only concerns the well-being of the 1.6 billion people of the three countries, but also the prosperity and stability of the entire East Asia region. Whether this handshake truly rewrites Asian history remains to be seen.