Reuters reports that on February 23, China has recently reaffirmed its commitment to preventing foreign interference in the affairs of Taiwan, reasserting its claims to the independent nation no matter the numerous claims and recognition which prove otherwise. This declaration comes just a week after a Chinese fishing boat capsized trying to escape Taiwanese coastal authorities off the coast of the Kinmen peninsula, killing two fishermen. The Taiwanese minister of defense, Chiu Kuo-cheng, declared publicly that the military will not take part in this affair and that a peaceful exchange is desired. The Chinese ministry of Taiwanese Affairs responded with a message that condemned the accidental deaths of the fishermen and assured that China wants a “peaceful cohabitation in the fragile region”. The Chinese government also asserted that there are no restraints or boundaries in these waters that (the government claims) have been shared by Chinese fishermen since antiquity.      

This incident is not accidental and represents part of China’s strategy in this particular region to use commercial fishing boats as a cover for Chinese militias to push the boundaries of the Taiwanese coast guard and ensnare them in committing an error that China can capitalize on. These subtle tactics also don’t justify military intervention, especially from the United States, or at least that is what China theorizes. China also does flyovers that violate Taiwanese airspace and sends spy balloons. These actions are part of China’s larger plans of expansion and the reunification of Taiwan which denies Taiwanese sovereignty and seeks to establish Chinese control in the region that rivals western power, especially America’s. In a Le Monde article entitled New Maritime Incidents between Taiwan and China Reinforce Strategic Tension led by Beijing, political scientist and china expert Jacques Gravereau, is cited for his view that China does not think the United States and its allies in the region will risk a large scale conflict protecting a small territory. 

The actions by the Chinese are signs that only the worse will come if they keep pushing the boundaries, testing to see if the U.S and its allies will respond, especially when it does not think the U.S will respond at all. With this increased pressure on Taiwan the only option is being prepared militarily, deterring China from a large-scale battle with the U.S and its allies. The United States and its allies need to prepare a military manufacturing base that can mass produce necessary munitions for a drawn out conflict. They also need to find new supply chains for raw resources and essential technology for its weapons and weapons systems. At the moment the CSIS reports that the United States would exhaust certain key munitions within a week if a conflict over Taiwan were to happen. Part of China’s confidence is not just their estimation of our willingness to fight but our actual capacity to fight for a long duration. 

To understand why China is preoccupied with Taiwan and unification with Chinese speaking peoples and cultures, it is necessary to understand the ideology behind this government. Chinese leadership holds beliefs about the world and the way the world should be, centered around expanding Chinese influence. The reassertion of Chinese power means usurping the power of the United States and other western countries by influencing policy through global institutions that reflect China’s values and by creating its own systems of global governance that shape the world in its image. It should also not be forgotten that Marxist-Leninism and Maoism still influence the ideology of Chinese politics and that the ideas espoused by Chinese leadership reflect an understanding of history where the development of communism and the decline of capitalist powers are inevitable. While there should be hesitation before explaining away all of China’s behavior through the lens of deceased philosophers and politicians, these ideas still hold sway and adapt overtime. Understanding the Chinese government’s motivations could be the key to preventing a large-scale conflict. 

Currently the world is seeing shifting balances of power that are going to change the way we think about how we organize society and what we prioritize. The goals of China are to shift that balance of power in their favor by acting outside the norms established by the international community. China’s approach seeks to use its military and economic power to force authoritarian measures in the regions it is targeting and disregards nations like Taiwan that want to preserve their democratic systems of government. This is a reminder that the civic liberties achieved by democracies are not given nor guaranteed and can be reversed by military powers who do not share the same ideas.