Mexican cartels are stepping into a bigger role in Colombian coca production, bringing more potent plants, more advanced weapons, and a greater risk for drug-related violence. For years, top Mexican cartels like Sinaloa and Jalisco Nueva Generacion have purchased cocaine from Colombian groups but have traditionally taken a hands-off and transactional approach. However, Colombian law enforcement, residents, and farmers in several cocaine-producing areas have reported an increase in the presence of Mexican cartel representatives, indicating changing norms of engagement. Representatives have brought enhanced coca varieties with them, contributing to the increased quantity and purity of cocaine trafficked to the U.S. and Europe. In addition, they’ve stoked competition between Colombian syndicates and raised the likelihood of brutality, often trading machine guns, assault rifles, and semi-automatic handguns in return for cocaine shipments.
According to Juan Carlos Echeverry, Colombia’s former finance minister, cocaine production generated between $8 to $12 billion dollars in 2020, making it a quarter of the country’s exports. Mexican cartels buy coca base and cocaine from guerilla groups like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and crime syndicates, most notably the Clan del Golfo. Colombia’s largest drug cartel, Clan de Golfo, has a huge influence, most recently shutting down cities across more than 100 municipalities in response to its leader Dairo Antonio Úsuga’s extradition to the U.S. The power of the coca industry and its ties to Mexico are only set to grow: a police intelligence report shows that Mexican cartels have begun funding the construction of laboratories and shipping warehouses and sending armed delegates to deliver super-charged seeds. Over the last 3 years, police detected 14 adaptations of coca designed to increase productivity. In 2020, national security advisor Rafael Guarin said, “It’s a very pragmatic relationship. Whoever has control of the growing areas and the laboratories and can meet demand is the one who maintains relations with the Mexicans.” Furthermore, Colombian police report that Mexicans are increasingly paying for coca with guns, including a weapon nicknamed the “cop killer” for its ability to puncture bullet-proof vests.
Efforts to curb cocaine production and trafficking have seen minimal success. In 2020, Colombia’s potential annual production (the quantity that would be produced if all coca leaves were processed into pure cocaine) was up 8%, and yield per hectare was up 18%, despite a reduction in the total area occupied by coca crops. Seizures and illicit crop reduction leave economic dependence on the cocaine industry unaddressed. Farmers often have no choice but to participate, as cartels are often the largest employers in their regions. Social leader Luis Alfredo Vasquez comments that “drug trafficking has gone up because of the total abandonment of the state. There is no dignified housing, no dignified healthcare; we don’t have dignified education or employment.”
Alongside failures to stem the flow of drugs, the associated flow of violence seems to be on the rise. According to the Ministry of Defense, in 2021, killings of Colombian armed forces and national police were at their highest level in 6 years, increasing by 57% from 2020. As Mexican cartels become more involved, the cause for concern has increased. Mexican drug gangs have easy access to guns bought in the U.S. and are supplying Colombian gangs with military-grade armaments. Drug-related violence in Mexico offers a window into what Colombia may be headed towards. Last year, Mexico sued American gunmakers for reckless business practices and “actively facilitating” an influx of illegal arms to cartels, resulting in thousands of deaths. Criminal groups battling for territory have instigated forced displacement, with Michoacán state alone displacing 20,000 people in 2021. Femicide is rampant – according to Amnesty International, at least 10 women and girls are murdered every day in Mexico – and justice is most lacking in states rife with drug cartel violence, where impunity is the standard.
To minimize the intrusion of Mexican cartels and mitigate violence, Colombian authorities must take a holistic approach, seeking to provide alternative employment opportunities to coca cultivation. Guerilla warfare and extrajudicial killings should be stemmed at the source, with arms control, rural development, government inclusivity, negotiation between insurgency groups, and anti-corruption efforts leading the charge. Forced eradication campaigns have seldom worked; rather, ending the violent conflict is the precondition for undermining illicit economies.
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