Belarus sent military reinforcements to its border with Ukraine on Saturday, August 10, after citing incidents where Ukrainian drones had violated its airspace during Kyiv’s military operations in an attempt to reach Russia’s Kursk region. According to Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, these drones got intercepted by the country’s air defenses on Friday but still contributed to the increasing tensions between both countries. Consequently, Belarus’ Foreign Ministry demanded measures from Ukraine’s charge d’affaires to prevent incidents like these from occurring in the future, stating that Belarus would need to reconsider whether Kyiv’s diplomatic presence in Minsk was still “appropriate.”

The Belarusian Foreign Ministry saw such airspace violation as a provocation. “If Ukraine’s diplomatic representation in Belarus cannot have an effect on preventing such provocations, the Belarusian side will raise the issue of the appropriateness of its continued presence in Minsk,” a comment made by the Minister on BelTA. On the other side, the head of Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, a state body, wrote on Telegram that reinforcing arms deployments near the border was considered “an attempt to help Putin and divert the attention of Ukraine’s command to this sector.”

These tensions have developed into a multifaceted issue concerning the international system regarding diplomatic relations, security, and peace in the region. The Russia-Ukraine War has already killed more than 40 thousand people, with at least 11,284 civilian deaths, according to the United Nations Report from July 2024. In this context, careful moves make a difference in Ukraine’s relations with neighboring countries. Persisting on violating Belarus’s airspace could create more problems than bring war advantages to Ukraine. A possible removal of Ukrainian diplomatic presence in Minsk would lead to a diplomatic crisis among both countries, closing space for dialogue and deteriorating their relationship. In the long term, this lack of communication channels could provoke more regional conflict and security issues.

The war that started in 2022 between Russia and Ukraine has been impacting the international scenario since day one, with other countries around the globe taking sides and sending aid and assistance to the people affected by it in the region. For further understanding, a complete historical chronology of this conflict can be found on the Crisis Index page of OWP. In this context, rather than just being on Russia’s side, Belarus has often been seen as a strategic stage for the Russians in this war. However, despite the strong Russian influence in Belarus’ politics, Belarus still has Ukraine’s diplomatic presence in its territory, indicating a considerable level of sovereignty. This independence means that regardless of its strong relationship with Russia, Belarus’s sovereignty needs to be respected from the perspective of international relations and diplomacy. Within this scenario, the closure of diplomatic channels between Belarus and Ukraine could mark the starting point for further conflict escalation.

As tensions increase between both countries, a diplomatic crisis could have far-reaching implications for the future peace and stability in the region. As the Russia-Ukraine war advances with no perspective of ending soon, the involved countries need to take measures to keep diplomatic bodies in the territories of their neighbors. That can establish a common ground for communication and security for the short and long term. Following this line of reasoning, abstaining from repeating incidents that Belarus considered a violation of its airspace could be seen not only as a respect for its sovereignty but also as a careful and strategic move, highlighting the importance of diplomacy in the region and in international relations.