Following its missile attack on Israel, Iran has stated that its military actions against Israel have concluded, and “it does not seek war with Israel but will exercise its right to self-defense.” Both Israel and the “Axis of Resistance” seem locked in a cycle of retaliation, raising international concerns that Israel’s counterattacks could ignite a larger Middle Eastern conflict with escalation seeming imminent.

Citing an Iranian source, Al Jazeera reported on October 3rd that the Iranian government conveyed through Qatar to the United States (U.S.) that its restraint had ended. Any further attack by Israel on Iran would be met with an “unconventional response,” including strikes on Israeli infrastructure. While Iran stressed that it does not wish for a regional war, Axios reported on October 2nd that Israeli officials revealed plans for a major retaliation in the coming days, potentially targeting Iran’s oil production facilities and other strategic sites. Possible responses could also include targeted destruction of Iran’s air defense systems. On October 6th, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued a stern warning, stating that the consequences could make Iran “resemble Gaza or Beirut” if Iran tries to harm Israel.

Israel’s firm statements reflect its hardline stance toward Iran, adding further fuel to regional tensions. Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Habib told C.N.N. on the 3rd that Hezbollah leader Nasrallah had agreed to a temporary 21-day ceasefire before his assassination and had communicated with the U.S., France, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But the assassination of Nasrallah derailed any initial ceasefire efforts. Politico reported on October 2nd that U.S. President Joe Biden urged Israel to refrain from striking Iranian nuclear facilities, indicating that while the U.S. is trying to prevent Israel from taking extreme actions, it has limited ability to restrain Israel’s other responses. With multiple warnings exchanged between Iran and Israel, the Middle East seems trapped in a “cycle of retaliation,” with both sides preparing for full-scale war. On October 4th, Iran released a video showing its underground missile bases to global press, confirming its large-scale missile attack capabilities. Iran, Kuwait, and Iraq have so far closed their airspace, and the Iranian armed forces are on full military alert. Meanwhile, Israel, facing a critical blood shortage on the 4th, called on citizens to donate blood as it prepares for a “do-or-die” battle.

The international community is highly concerned about the escalating retaliatory actions between Iran and Israel, with Middle Eastern countries taking actions. According to Reuters, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait have assured Iran of their absolute neutrality in the ongoing conflict and have pledged not to allow the U.S. to use their airbases for attacks on Iran. Jordan has stated it will not allow any country to use its airspace for strikes against Israel. Outside of the Middle East, the U.S. has announced it will officially join Israel in its actions against Iran by putting all aircraft carriers on alert and dispatching the U.S. Central Command General Michael Kurilla to Israel. Meanwhile, the U.K. and France have refused to participate in attacks on Iran, and urge Israel to avoid any retaliation. Germany has voiced its support for Lebanon, while French President Emmanuel Macron has called for halting arms supplies to Israel, hoping to force Netanyahu back to the negotiating table to pursue a diplomatic resolution. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. and Israel are discussing options to strike Iran’s oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Iran has warned that if the U.S. or Israel attacks its homeland, it will lock the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq also announced that if Iran is attacked, no oil from the Persian Gulf would be exported.

Israel’s retaliatory strike appears imminent, while the U.S. is caught in a difficult dilemma. On one hand, it has expressed full support for Israel’s defense; on the other, it faces Iran’s warnings that aiding Israel’s retaliation will result in severe attacks on U.S. forces and interests in the Middle East. Should the U.S. fail to prevent Israel from striking Iran’s nuclear facilities and the region descends into chaos, all U.S. military bases in the area could face total destruction. The next month would be a critical period as the U.S. presidential election is coming.