Fighting broke out Sunday night between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. The number of causalities, both civilian and military, has reached at least 87. Azerbaijan has not officially reported their causalities, but some news agencies have estimated it to be over 400.

Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense has claimed that they have fought off all attempts by Armenia to gain traction in the region. There have also been reports of Armenian armor being destroyed. The most recent estimate by Azerbaijan is 2,300 Armenians killed. These numbers have not been independently verified.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a region within Azerbaijan that declared its independence in 1994. However, no UN members have acknowledged it as an independent country and most international actors continue to recognize it as being a part of Azerbaijan. Armenia claims the right to control the region because the population is 95% ethnic Armenian.

A war broke out over the region in 1988, as Soviet rule weakened, and saw over 30,000 people killed and a least a million people displaced. Most of these people were Azeris who were forced out of the region. In 1994, Russia worked to broker a truce between the two countries, ending the war. However, a lasting peace agreement has not been signed, and fighting over the region has continued to occur intermittently.

The Minsk Group, co-chaired by Russia, the United States, and France was established in an attempt to create an agreement between the two countries but has been largely unsuccessful. In October 2017 the two leaders met in Geneva, Switzerland, and reported having a productive meeting that aided in their creation of a peace deal. However, no peace deal has since emerged.

On 29 September 2020, the Organization for the Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) held a meeting regarding this most recent conflict where members of the Minsk Group reiterated their desire for a ceasefire in the region.

International players are also involved in this conflict; Turkey and France have publicly commented on the recent escalations. Turkey supports Azerbaijan’s attacks to gain back control of the region. Armenia has accused Turkey of directly contributing military support to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan denies this. French President Emmanuel Macron has criticized Turkey’s statements as contributing to the violence in the region and encouraging the Azeri army to re-conquer Nagorno-Karabakh. France stands in solidarity with Armenia, which the Turkish Foreign Minister suggests defends the Armenia occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh.

More international actors may become involved in this conflict. Russia has an agreement to support Armenia. Iran has not declared any role in the conflict, but its strong Azeri minority may contribute to future actions. In addition to this, Azerbaijan is a significant supplier of oil to surrounding regions, including Europe. Should this conflict escalate further, this industry would be impacted.

Nagorno-Karabakh has seen fighting since 1994. In April 2016 military skirmishes killed dozens and lasted 4 days. Though there have not been verifications of fatalities from Azerbaijan or Armenia, this conflict seems to be already more devastating than that.