Between the increasing global food prices, and barriers to food access caused by climate change, conflict, and COVID-19; the levels of global hunger are rising at alarming rates. According to the United Nations (UN) report on The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, between 720 and 811 million people went hungry in 2020. This is an increase of 118 million people from 2019. As food prices continue to rise, and many households continue to see a loss of income due to COVID-19, it is expected that the number of people going hungry will increase as we enter 2022. Some experts are warning that the current conditions could evolve into a global food crisis.

Maximo Torero Cullen, the chief economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said we are not facing a food crisis yet, but that we might be approaching one soon. Cullen said that some of the countries most at risk of a global food crisis are countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Yemen, Afghanistan, Haiti, and Venezuela. Svein Tore Holsether, the CEO and president of Yara International, a major fertilizer producer, has said that “we risk a very low crop in the next harvest… I’m afraid we’re going to have a food crisis.” The rising costs of energy, that have resulted from factory closures as part of COVID-19 responses, have led to a tripling of fertilizer prices. The cost to produce a ton of ammonia, a necessary ingredient in synthetic fertilizer, has gone from $110 to $1000 in just a year. This is leading to a shortage of fertilizer and increased costs of fertilizer, making it difficult for farmers to continue to produce the same number of crops.

Cullen has said that to avoid a global food crisis, aid needs to be given to support farmers and help them make sure that they can produce enough food for next year’s harvest. Yara International is an organization doing just this and has given $25 million of fertilizer to vulnerable farmers. The World Bank has committed an additional $5.3 billion through the International Development Association to new responses to issues of food security. The responses from organizations such as Yara International and the World Bank are important and are making a difference in evading this food crisis. However, they are not enough; more organizations and individuals need to give to assist farmers to ensure they can produce enough food. Food prices are not the only issue leading to this crisis; Madagascar is facing the worst drought it has seen in 40 years, and over one million people need urgent food aid. Conflict is also impacting the food crisis; in Ethiopia, food insecurity is being used as a weapon in the civil war. On top of aid to farmers, there needs to be more action against climate change on a global scale and increasing efforts to improve peace in areas of conflict to minimize future climate-related and conflict-related food crises, such as the ones seen in Madagascar and Ethiopia today.

The possibility of a global food crisis is a combination of several different ongoing crises. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the loss of employment, decreased social services, and issues in global supply chains; all of which have the potential to push already vulnerable households and individuals into food insecurity. Climate change is an ongoing and worsening issue, and farmers must continuously adapt to changes in weather conditions that make farming more difficult and more expensive. Food insecurity in times of conflict occurs as economic issues emerge, governments or rebel groups use food as a weapon, or as access to food becomes difficult for other reasons. To mitigate a possible global food crisis, all of these issues need to be addressed at the same time.

As we enter 2022, the world does not need a global food crisis. A global food crisis has severe negative effects, especially on those living in already vulnerable conditions. To prevent a global food crisis in the next year, Cullen is right that giving aid to farmers to help them keep producing food is a necessary starting point. This on its own might not be enough to prevent food crises; civil wars, and especially, climate change, though it must be addressed regardless.