A Tropical Cold War: Opportunity And Danger As U.S. And China Compete For The Pacific

Last Wednesday, a Chinese-state firm won a multi-million-dollar contract to build an international port in the Solomon Islands, solidifying its ties with the Micronesian nation following the security deal both parties signed last year including the “maintenance of [the islands’] social order.” A day later, the Biden administration announced its intentions to provide over $7 billion in funding to a cohort of Pacific nations including the Marshall Islands, Palau, and the Federated States of Micronesia, with senior State Department official Jane Blockage telling a congressional hearing that “absent the new economic assistance provisions, we really leave the three countries open to predatory behavior, coercive behavior.” As both U.S. and Chinese diplomats prepare to visit the Solomon Islands in the coming weeks, it’s an open secret that competition for influence is underway in the Pacific on a scale not seen since the end of the Cold War, inviting in both opportunity and immense danger to the nations of the region.

The Pacific is the largest ocean on Earth, and the nations that live within it stretch across an area larger than any continent. These island nations are both diverse in character and critical for crossing the great blue expanse. The geographical area of Oceania is broken up into a number of regions, including the Polynesian Triangle banded by Hawaii in the north, New Zealand in the southwest, and Easter Island in the southeast, as well as Melanesia (an area north of Australia which includes Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Fiji), and finally Micronesia (east of the Philippines, including Kiribati, Palau, and the Marshall Islands). These regions have long been turbulent and neglected; civil wars, sectarian conflicts, and political instability have plagued nations like Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Fiji. These islands have faced dampened economic prospects and exploitative deals with foreign companies looking to pirate resources rather than build up these nations’ economic capacities for many years. This month’s diplomatic intrigues in the area are not a new phenomenon. Rather, they are largely the culmination of concerted efforts in Beijing and Washington to win ground for their interests.

In 2019, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati officially ceased their diplomatic recognition of Taiwan in favor of China, and have since received a large series of Chinese investments and aid packages. Since 2021, meanwhile, the U.S. has stepped up its diplomatic efforts to strengthen its position in the Pacific. This includes slowly building the strength of its Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (shortened to Quad) alliance with Japan, Australia, and India, as well as the A.U.K.U.S. pact which will see both the United States and United Kingdom assisting Australia in acquiring nuclear submarines. Last September, too, the Biden administration announced the Pacific Partnership Strategy. This diplomatic and economic plan is aimed at the wider Pacific Islands beyond the Anglophone nations already aligned with it, with a goal of “fulfill[ing] our historical commitments and strengthen[ing] our enduring relationships with the full Pacific Islands region” and “position[ing] ourselves to best meet the needs of Pacific Island countries.”

There are good reasons for nations in the Pacific to invite in Chinese and U.S. interests – a kind of geopolitical calculus that has many benefits, as playing both sides sees more diplomatic flexibility and a higher yield of aid. But life in a sphere of influence is not guaranteed to be safe or profitable, especially when security pacts and military basing is involved, and politicians across the Pacific need to exhibit a delicate caution in order to avoid finding themselves on the frontlines of someone else’s war.

The aid efforts of far off nuclear powers are not altruistic, even if the net effect of their competition for influence sees money pouring into the Pacific. These superpowers’ interests are narrow: strategic security, regional influence, and diplomatic bragging rights, with their eyes inexorably turned to the South China Sea and Taiwan. The problems facing the Pacific Islands, on the other hand, are many, including environmental deterioration and economic disparities from exploitative companies and climate change, which are best understood by those living there. As Fijian prime minister and chairman of the Pacific Island Forum Sitiveni “Rambo” Rabuka said ahead of a meeting to restore Kiribati to that body, “set against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical interests in our region, coupled with the real threats posed by climate change… solidarity in our Pacific family is ever so critical.”

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