After more than a month of the U.S.and Israel’s war with Iran, its consequences are starting to take shape. At the time of writing, U.S.and Israeli strikes have killed more than 1,900 and injured upwards of 20,000 Iranians, as estimated by the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. On the other side, retaliatory strikes on U.S. military bases in the region by Iran have killed 13 U.S. Armed Forces members and injured more than 200, according to Al-Jazeera. In addition, Iranian retaliatory strikes have killed 20 and injured more than 6,000 in Israel. Iranian strikes killed and injured dozens across the region, including strikes in Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.

Additionally, the economic consequences of Trump’s ‘Operation Epic Fury’ have been steep. Following the commencement of U.S. strikes, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Millions of barrels of oil pass through the narrow strait comprised of Omani and Iranian territorial waters per day, accounting for over 20% of the world’s oil supply. With that much of the world’s oil supply cut off, oil futures prices skyrocketed and currently sit at just over $100 per barrel. In the US, the national average price of a gallon of gas rose to $4 in response to the Strait of Hormuz closure, up 36% over the past month, Reuters reported. Despite waging a wildly unpopular and costly war for more than a month, the Trump administration has still not stated clear strategic objectives that the U.S. hopes to achieve.

Trump has contradicted himself numerous times when speaking about the US’s progress towards its original objectives. He has claimed victory, claimed that the U.S. must keep striking Iran, claimed that Iranian officials are begging for a ceasefire, argued that Iran must open the Strait of Hormuz, and claimed that the strait was never closed to begin with. As of this article’s writing on March 31st, 2026, Trump has announced that the U.S. and Iran are negotiating a 15-point plan submitted to Iran through Pakistan and that Iran has agreed to several points. In an interview with Al-Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi responded to this declaration by stating, “There is no truth to the claim of negotiations with any party in Iran.” Although Araghchi admitted that he had exchanged messages with Steve Wtikoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, he claimed that Iran had “not sent any response to the 15 American proposals, nor [had it] submitted any proposals or conditions.” Despite the messages exchanged between Witkoff and Araghchi, and despite both Iran and the U.S. signalling that they are ready for an end to this war, it appears that it will continue at least until Iran responds to the American proposal or submits one of its own. 

The longer the war drags on, the greater the pressure on Donald Trump to end it. Economic and political tolls are mounting due to rising gas prices and the war’s unpopularity, and the U.S. midterm elections are just around the corner. Trump is undoubtedly looking for a way out of this unpopular war, as signalled by the US’s shifting objectives. The original objectives of ‘Operation Epic Fury’ were to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and its navy, ensuing it could never produce a nuclear weapon. However, in response to the increasing pressures, Trump’s new focus became reopening the Strait of Hormuz. To force Iran into allowing oil tankers through the Strait, the U.S.moved more than 2,500 marines to the region, and U.S.officials, including Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, began alluding to using these forces to capture Iran’s Kharg Island. An American invasion of Iranian territory would be a catastrophic misstep that is counterproductive to either opening the Strait of Hormuz or ending the war. In response to these threats made by U.S. officials, Araghchi told Al-Jazeera, “We know how to defend ourselves. In a ground war, we can do it even better. We are completely ready to confront any sort of ground attack. We hope they do not make such a mistake.”

Even if successful, an invasion of Kharg Island would come at a steep price to the forces that take it. And even if its capture ensures the reopening of the strait,  it does Trump no favours politically to put more American forces directly in harm’s way, likely getting even more U.S.forces killed and prolonging the conflict further. From this perspective, the best way to end the war quickly is by striking a deal with Iran, but that first requires negotiations, which Iran does not seem keen on participating in. 

Iran’s hesitancy to open a negotiation process with the U.S. stems from its history of being attacked while participating in negotiations with the U.S. in good faith. In June of 2025, the U.S.carried out Operation Midnight Hammer while formal talks regarding Iran’s nuclear program were ongoing. This operation consisted of bombing raids on key Iranian nuclear enrichment sites such as the Fordo Fuel Enrichment Plant, the Natanz Nuclear facility, and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. In February of this year, the U.S. and Iran were in the midst of behind-the-scenes talks when Donald Trump gave the green light for Operation Epic Fury. Their hesitancy to resume talks with the U.S. is considered valid by many, given the U.S.’s record of acting in bad faith during negotiations and resorting to force when talks weren’t going its way or moving fast enough. “The reality is we have never had a good experience from negotiations with the US,” foreign minister Araghchi told Al-Jazeera. “Twice last year and now this year, we negotiated with the US, and the result was an attack by them.” Despite Iran’s hesitancy to enter negotiations, a negotiated settlement is likely to be reached in the near future, as escalating the war would do neither side any good. 

The mixed bag of information from both the U.S. and Iran creates a unique sense of uncertainty about the war. Nobody can predict what will come next, whether this conflict will resolve itself in a relatively short time, or if Operation Epic Fury could turn into another Iraq or Afghanistan scenario for the United States. If cooler heads fail to prevail, this conflict could devolve into a costly, drawn-out quagmire in which no party is truly victorious. In that case, the human and economic consequences discussed here would be dwarfed, affecting far more than just the U.S. and Iran. Now, the international community waits on bated breath to see how this conflict will play out, hoping desperately that the U.S.and Iran manage to bring about a timely, peaceful resolution to their war.