Will President Muhammadu Buhari’s Illness Bring Instability To Nigeria?

President Muhammadu Buhari has returned to London for a second time to receive treatment while, back home in Nigeria, concerns are being raised over his fitness for office. The details of his illness remain undisclosed and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo has taken up the mantle in his absence, chairing meetings and acting as his proxy. President Buhari returned to Nigeria from London in March but missed council, cabinet meetings, and prayer services while he was allegedly recovering. On May 5, he appeared for Friday prayers in Abuja but, two days later, he was back in London for further treatment.

In his absence, concerns are growing for the security of a country faced with a substantial economic downturn and tension with extremist groups. In May, Al Jazeera’s correspondent Ahmed Idris reported that an open letter had been signed by well-known Nigerians, asking for Buhari’s office to be consigned to his deputy in his absence. Idris also reported that meetings were held between former president Olusegun Obasanjo, and ex-military rulers Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar. Still, many Nigerians are for the moment content to pray for the President’s recovery and hope that he returns to office soon.

There is, however, a precedent for illness in Nigeria’s office which should be a warning to the government. In 2010, when President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua died in office, constitutional and political unrest threatened the stability of Nigeria because Umaru Musa Yar’Adua failed to formally transfer powers to his Vice President. Instead, power was transferred by the Senate to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan using a Doctrine of Necessity on February 20, 2010. The legitimacy of this transfer was not recognized by many lawyers and was dubbed a “coup without the word.”

Others did, however, support the actions of the Senate, which had responded to the power vacuum threatening instability and the emergence of military dictatorship. The circumstances of President Muhammadu Buhari’s illness seem worryingly similar: Umaru Musa Yar’Adua also took trips abroad for treatment, maintained a mysterious silence on his condition while visitors consistently stated that he would make a full recovery.

Yar’Adua’s death came at a difficult time: violence between Muslims and Christians had begun in central Nigeria early in 2010, killing hundreds of people, and friction had developed in the Niger Delta. President Muhammadu Buhari’s time in office also saw challenges and the president was elected in part because Nigerians believed he would be able to ward off Islamist insurgency in the North of the country. His military background and tough stance were seen as a strong counter against insurgent groups like Boko Haram, who organized kidnappings and caused substantial unrest. Despite accusations that he himself was a radical Islamist, he promised during his election campaign to stop the insurgency and refused to enter talks with Boko Haram. Another uneasy transfer of power, or lack of it, could bring serious turmoil to Nigeria as radical groups seize the opportunity to exploit the absence of a leader.

Nigeria also faces economic instability as oil prices have fallen steadily since 2014. A lack of diversification in the Nigerian economy means that any decrease in oil output is especially devastating. The government has been keeping the Naira, Nigeria’s currency, at artificially high levels to counter oil price cuts. In theory, weak leadership is likely to add to concerns over the stability of the country’s oil and drive prices even lower. Fortunately, Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo has played a key role in responding to the economic downturn and was commended for his policies.

Ironically, during his presidential campaign, Buhari’s health was raised as a concern by the opposition party. The mystery surrounding President Muhammadu Buhari’s illness and lack of foresight should his illness proves terminal, are threatening to bring political and constitutional unease to Nigeria. Muhammadu Buhari was elected as a strong leader to counter extremism and economic uncertainty; his absence could intensify the very problems he was elected to solve.

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