Saudi Arabia-Iran Proxy War


“Muslims should be awake, Muslims should be alert that if a dispute takes place among Sunni and Shi’ite brothers, it is harmful to all of us, it is harmful to all Muslims. Those who want to sow discord are neither Sunni nor Shi’ite”
– Imam Khomeini

 

 

 

                       Facts:

      Where:

               Middle East (Mainly outside of Iran                    and Saudi Arabia)

      When:

               Ongoing since 1979

      Proxy Wars:

               Syrian Civil War

Ongoing since March 15 2011

Deaths – 500,000

Refugees – 5 million     

               Yemen Civil War

Ongoing since March 19 2015

Deaths – 10,000

Refugees – 3 million

               Iraq Civil War

Ongoing since January 1 2014

Deaths – 100,000

Refugees – 5.6 million

               Afghanistan War

Ongoing since April 27 1978 

Deaths – 1.5 to 2 million

               Also involved in Pakistan, Nigeria, 

Qatar, Bahrain, Lebanon 

 

 

Gulf Cooperation Council Member States

                 Overview

Saudi Arabia and Iran have never declared war on each other. Instead they fight indirectly by supporting opposing sides in conflicts in other countries and by inciting conflicts in other countries– this is known as proxy warfare. This proxy war is currently being played out in significant conflicts in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, although the proxy war does spill into many other Middle Eastern nations. It is a conflict over influence and control of the Middle East, each campaign in the region being seen by both sides as both an enormous threat and also as a potentially immense opportunity. The conflict began following Iran’s 1979 revolution and Iran’s determination as a Shiite Muslim nation which threatened Saudi Arabia’s dominance in the region and increased religious tensions as Saudi Arabian’s are predominantly Sunni Muslim. Tensions have been increasing in recent years and the conflict between the two countries appears unlikely to be resolved in the near future as these two states continue to battle for dominance as the most influential Islamic nation in the Middle East.

                 Key Actors:

  • The Saudi-Led coalition – Heavily backed by the United States, this coalition which includes the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait (as well as supporting nations such as Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, and Morocco) is currently playing a significant role in the Yemeni civil war.
  • Houthis – An Islamic religious and political movement that emerged from Yemen in the 1990’s. In 2014/2015 they took over the Yemeni government run by Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi and since that time they have gained control of most of the northern part of Yemen. They are allegedly supported by Iran.
  • Yemen – Has been one of the major fronts in the conflict as a result of its revolution and subsequent civil war. Yemen has traditionally been under the influence of Saudi Arabia. The Houthi insurgence in Yemen caused an increase of tensions between Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Iran. This is due to Iran’s alleged support of the Houthis. As a result of the conflict and support from Saudi Arabia and Iran of opposing sides of the conflict the UN is predicting that we may see one of the worst humanitarian crises in history.
  • Syria – The ongoing civil war which began in 2011 has been a significant battleground for Saudi Arabia and Iran. Syria has historically played an important role for Iran to assert its influence. The civil war threatened this and created an opportunity for Saudi Arabia to increase its influence. Iran backs the government while Saudi Arabia back rebel militants
  • Iraq – Under Saddam Hussein’s rule Iraq was hostile to Iran and Saudi Arabia. Following the American-led invasion in 2003 and subsequent power vacuum, Iran sought friendship with Iraq and still maintains that to this day being particularly influential in Iraqi government
  • Afghanistan – Being historically close to Iran and strategically important to Saudi Arabia, the proxy conflict between the two countries has contributed to Afghanistan’s continuing instability. Iran and Saudi continue to fight for influence over Afghanistan.
  • Pakistan – Economically and strategically dependent on Saudi Arabia. In 2015 Pakistan declared neutrality in the Yemen civil war however it ultimately ended up providing support to the Saudi-led coalition by sending proxy forces to aid the coalitions campaign.
  • Qatar – Has positive relations with Iran which has resulted in punishment from members of the Saudi-led coalition and others including blockage of airspace and sea routes.
  • Lebanon – Has had a strained relationship with Saudi Arabia for some time. The resignation of Prime Minister Hariri whilst in Saudi Arabia further strained the relationship. The resignation has been viewed as a power play by Saudi Arabia to increase its influence in Yemen and counterbalance Iran’s victories in Iraq and Syria.
  • Israel – Has developed closer ties with the Saudis as a result of both countries’ shared antipathy towards Iran and their growing influence across the Middle East.
  • Gulf Cooperation Council – Regional intergovernmental political and economic union consisting of the the Arab states in the Persian Gulf excluding Iraq. Includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, UAE. A proposal to transform the GCC into a ‘Gulf Union” with tighter economic, political and military coordination has been advanced by Saudi Arabia. This formation of such is meant to counterbalance Iran’s influence in the region.

 

                                                 Timeline:

  • 1979 – Saudi Arabia was the dominant Islamic state in the Middle East. The Iranian revolution of ‘79 threatened the status quo.
  • 1980 – 1988 – Relations strained throughout the decade as Saudi Arabia quietly supported Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war. Saudi Arabia publicly claims neutrality but makes three of its ports available to Iraq’s military
  • 1981 – Iranians in Mecca and Medina clash with Saudi police after chanting political slogans. Iran accused Saudi authorities of discrimination towards Iranian pilgrims
  • May 1981 – Saudi Arabia, The UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain form the Gulf Cooperation Council as part of a security response to the Iranian revolution and Iran-Iraq war.
  • 1982 – Saudi Arabia reportedly supplies Iraq with $1bn per month in aid
  • May 1984 – Iran attacks a Saudi oil tanker in Saudi waters in retaliation to Iraq’s attempts to interfere with Iran’s oil shipping. Saudi Arabia retaliates by shooting down an Iranian Phantom jet over Saudi waters.
  • 1987 – Shiite pilgrims clash with Saudi police during the hajj, which resulted in a stampede. At least 400 are killed including more than 200 Iranians. Iranian protesters respond by attacking the Saudi and Kuwaiti embassies in Tehran
  • 1988 – Saudi Arabia severs ties with Iran as a result of the hajj clash
  • 1988 – 1900 –  Iran boycotts the hajj following Saudi Arabia reducing the number of pilgrim visas in response to the 1987 clashes
  • 1990 – Saudi Arabia sends aid to Iran after an earthquake kills 40,000
  • 1991 – Riyadh (Saudi Arabia’s Capital city) and Tehran (Iran’s Capital city) restore diplomatic ties
  • 1989-2005 – Tensions eased to some degree under President Akbar-Hashemi Rafsanjani who sought to improve Iran’s relations with its neighbours including Saudi Arabia. Trade and direct flights between the two increase.
  • 1991 – Following the Gulf War Iraq was weakened and Saudi Arabia and Iran became the major regional powers.
  • 1997 – 2005 Tensions eased again under President Mohammad Khatami who introduces a period of outreach to the Gulf. However, Saudi officials grow wary of Iran’s growing influence in Iraq, limiting the influence of Khatami’s outreach program.
  • 1997 – Crown Prince Abdullah attends the Organization of Islamic Conference summit in Tehran becoming the most senior Saudi official to visit Iran since 1979
  • 1999 – Iranian President Khatami meets with Crown Prince Abdullah in Saudi Arabia becoming the first Iranian leader to visit Saudi Arabia since 1979
  • 2003 – Saudi officials grow increasingly wary of Iran’s growing influence in Iraq. The US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003 empowered Iraq’s Shiite majority and resulted in a shift of political alignment towards Iran.
  • 2005 – 2013 Tensions increased when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came into power as he takes a hardline stance on foreign policy.
  • 2006 – the war between Israel and Hezbollah (Lebanese militant group who receive funding from Iran) increases Saudi suspicions that Tehran is creating new regional alliances that threaten Saudi interests
  • 2011 – Uprisings across the Arab world known as the Arab Spring cause political instability throughout the region which Iran and Saudi Arabia exploit to expand their influence particularly in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen
  • March 15 2011 – The Syrian Civil War begins. Iran actively backs the Syrian government while also backing the Lebanese Shiite armed group Hezbollah who also actively support the Syrian government. Saudi Arabia is a member of the U.S.-led coalition that supports a myriad of rebel groups including the Free Syrian Army and Syrian Democratic Forces( Please see http://theowp.org/syrian-civil-war/ for further information)
  • 2011 – Saudi officials accuse Iran of inciting protest in Bahrain against the country’s Sunni royal family. Saudi officials are concerned that Bahrain’s Shiite majority will take power and ally with Iran. Saudi troops assist in quelling the unrest at the request of Bahrain’s Sunni Royal family
  • 2011 – the U.S. Justice Department charges two Iranians with attempting to murder Saudi Ambassador to the United States Adel al Jubeir. Iran accuses the U.S. of fabrication and attempting to increase tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
  • 2012 – Saudi Arabia blames Iran for protest against anti-Shiite discrimination in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province
  • June 2013 – Moderate Hassan Rouhani is elected Iranian president. Rouhani amends Iran’s foreign policy to a friendlier stance. Relations between Iran and most Gulf Arab neighbours, including Saudi Arabia, improve.
  • November 2013 – Iran strikes an interim deal with big powers (US, UK, Russia, France, Germany, China) to limit its nuclear activity
  • September, 2014 – The U.S. coalition, including Saudi Arabia, begin launching airstrikes against Islamic State in Syria
  • 2014 – Saudi authorities issue a death sentence for Nimr al Nimr a Shiite cleric involved in the 2011 protests. Iranian officials denounce the conviction
  • 2014 – Iran increases it ground support for the Syrian Army (Russia also increases support for the Syrian Army in collaboration with Iran)
  • 19 March 2015 – Yemen Civil War begins. It is fought between the Supreme Revolutionary Committee led by the Houthis who are supported by Iran and forces loyal to current Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi who is strongly supported by the Saudi-led coalition. (please see http://theowp.org/yemeni-civil-war-2/ for further information)
  • 2015 – The US increased efforts to curb Iran’s influence in the region after a deal saw Iran give up its nuclear weapons program in exchange for sanctions relief
  • 2015 – Saudi Arabia increases its support for the rebels fighting in the Syrian civil war.
  • 2015 – Iran and Saudi Arabia agree to participate in peace talks regarding the proxy war however these ultimately failed.
  • March 2015 – Saudi Arabia initiates a bombing campaign in Yemen. Riyadh claims the airstrikes are in response to Iranian support for this Houthis (a Zayadi Shiite movement that took over large parts of the country in 2014) however, the exact nature and amount of Iranian support for the Houthis is debated.
  • June 2015 – Iran and the world’s six major powers (US, UK, Russia, France, China, Germany) reach a deal over Iran’s controversial nuclear program. Saudi officials publicly endorse the deal despite past reservations.
  • September 2015 – A stampede in Mina during the hajj kills at least 2000 people including hundreds of Iranians. Tehran accuses Riyadh of mismanagement and threatens legal action.
  • November 2015 – Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and his Saudi counterpart Adel al Jubeir allegedly  get into a heated argument during Syrian peace talks in Vienna
  • Jan 2016 – Saudi Arabia executes Sheikh Nimr al Nimr a prominent Shiite leader who supported anti-government demonstrations. This prompted protests or condemnation from Shiites in Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Turkey, Pakistan, India, Lebanon and Yemen. Iranian protesters burn part of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran and storm the compound.
  • Jan 2016 – Following the protests and violence at the Saudi Embassy, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Bahrain sever diplomatic ties, the UAE downgrades it’s relations with Iran. All members of the Arab League except Lebanon issue a statement condemning the attacks.
  • October 2016 – Saudi-led coalition bomb strikes a funeral procession in Yemen’s capital Sana’a killing 155.
  • Early 2017 – Rhetoric between the two nations becoming increasingly belligerent
  • May 2017 – missiles are launched by Iranian supported Houthi rebels from Yemen into Saudi territory allegedly targeting a missile in Riyadh.
  • June 2017 – Riyadh and several Sunni allies break off diplomatic relations with Qatar alleging Doha of supporting extremism that is linked with Iran (this was denied by both Iran and Qatar). This further increased tension.
  • 4th November 2017 – Houthi rebels in Yemen fire rockets at Riyadh. The attack is thwarted by Saudi Arabia’s missile shield.
  • 4th November 2017 – Saad Hariri Lebanon’s Prime Minister who is supported by Saudi Arabia announced during a broadcast from Riyadh his resignation, blaming Iran’s “grip” on his country via Hezbollah. Iran believe this resignation was forced, they also allege Hariri is being held against his will and the Saudis are using him as a pawn in the proxy conflict.
  • 6th November 2017 – Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of “a blatant act of military aggression” alleging that the missiles fired at Riyadh by Yemeni Houthi militias originated in Iran. Tehran denies this.
  • 6th November 2017 – Riyadh tightens the blockade on Yemen
  • 6th November 2017 – Yemeni officials allege that their President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi has been barred from leaving Riyadh, possibly as part of a feud with the UAE who are a key player in the Saudi-led coalition against rebels in Yemen
  • 7th November 2017 – Lebanese officials state that they fear Hariri’s resignation was part of a regional power play, with Saudi Arabia attempting to upset the delicate balance holding together Lebanon’s government. A change in the makeup of the Lebanese government could upset the Iran-linked Hezbollah who already accuse Riyadh of forcing Hariri to resign
  • 8th November 2017 – The U.S. gives its support to Saudi Arabia. Nikki Haley, ambassador to the UN calls for the UN to “hold the Iranian regime accountable” for allegedly providing weapons to the Houthis
  • 8th November 2017 – the UN warns that the tightened blockage on Yemen could cause “the largest famine the world has seen for many decades with millions of victims.”
  • 9th November 2017 – French President Emmanuel Macron announced while in Dubai that he would travel to Riyadh to meet Saudi officials. He said he wanted to meet Mohammad bin Salman the crown prince to discuss regional stability
  • 9th November 2017 – SPA (Saudi Press Agency) report that Saudi nationals are being told to leave Lebanon “as soon as possible.”
  • 10th November 2017 – Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun told a Saud official that Hariri’s resignation is unacceptable
  • 10th November 2017 – Lebanon’s leader of Hezbollah said in a televised address that it is clear that Hariri is detained in Riyadh and the “Saudi Arabia and Saudi officials have declared war on Lebanon.”
  • 10th November 2017 – The Saudi-led coalition reopens it’s land border to allow aid into the Yemen. The ports remained closed.
  • November 2017 – Saudi Arabia allege that a missile fired by Iran or Iran-backed Shiite rebels in Yemen fired a missile towards Riyadh. Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of “direct military aggression.” Iran denies any involvement
  • 2nd December 2017 – Former Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh in a televised speech suggests a willingness to engage in peace talks with Saudi Arabia to end the conflict. This is seen as a move aimed at side-lining Houthi rebels.
  • 6th December 2017 – Former Yemen President Saleh is assassinated by Houthi fighters.

 

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