Despite Re-Opening Of Salwa Border And Potential Thaw In Qatar-Saudi Relations, Much Work Still Needed

This past Thursday, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman issued a royal directive, effectively re-opening his kingdom’s only land border crossing with Qatar, allowing citizens from that country to attend this year’s Hajj pilgrimage. The move comes following a meeting between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Qatar’s Sheikh Abdullah bin Ali bin Abdullah bin Jassim Al Thani, in what was the first high-level meeting between individuals from the feuding states since the diplomatic crisis began (June 5th). It should be noted that the latter was not in the country in an official role, rather, he is the brother of Emir Sheikh Ahmad bin Ali Al Thani who ruled Qatar until he was ousted in a bloodless palace coup in 1972.

The decision to re-open the border was announced in a statement issued on Thursday, via the official Saudi Press Agency, permitting “the entry of Qatari pilgrims to the kingdom” to perform the Hajj without electronic permits—the usual requirement for pilgrims. King Salman also ordered that private jets belonging to Saudi Airlines “Saudia, be sent to Doha airport to bring said pilgrims “on his expenses,” whilst emphasizing the historical relations between two countries. The flights are set to depart on August 22 to August 25, with a return date set for September 5. This move represents a thawing in relations and raises hopes of a de-escalation of the 2-month long crisis, although some observers have been quick to point out how much work remains to be done, in order to normalize relations between Qatar and the Saudi-led group of blockading countries.
The response to this decision from Qatar was a positive one, although the Qatari foreign minister made sure to point how the initial decision—taken last month—to ban Qatari pilgrims was politicized; his government nevertheless welcomed the move. That decision and the controversy came to a head in early August after Qatar accused the Saudis of impeding pilgrims from making trips to two of Islam’s holiest sites, Mecca and Medina. The Hajj, which is a pilgrimage required of every Muslim who can afford it and is physically able to do, begins in late August and lasts until September. The growing schism, which had developed over the issue, required personal intervention by both the Saudi Crown Prince and the Qatari Sheik—which explains the high-level meeting between the two royals.

Speaking at a press conference in Stockholm, Qatar’s foreign minister suggested that the move should have included a full lifting of the blockade imposed on his country by the Saudi-led bloc. A blockade which, you may recall, was first sparked by a cyber-attack in May, which they believe is linked to the UAE. The UAE has denied any involvement in that particular attack, which is said to have involved fabricated comments attributed to the Qatari emir. Those comments were posted on the official state news agency and affiliated social media accounts, in which he supposedly called Iran an “Islamic power” and said Qatar’s relations with Israel are “good.” Qatar swiftly disavowed the comments, but state-owned and semi-official media in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain continued to report the remarks for days (an example of the divisive media campaign strategy employed by all sides since the row first broke out). What followed those events was the issuing of more than a dozen demands on Qatar, which has throughout the whole affair, rejected the accusations levelled against it.

Most recently (and equally as important), was the recent publication of an animated 3D simulation video intended to demonstrate a hypothetical Saudi military response to a Qatari airplane entering Saudi airspace (in direct violation of the air and land embargo imposed on Qatar the blockading countries). The video which was released and posted on YouTube includes a narration, describing how any violation of the embargo would lead to potential scenarios: a) the airplane being shot down by missiles fired by Saudi jets—with all passengers and crew aboard—or b) a fighter jet is sent to intercept the plane and forces it to land. Both the provocative nature and timing of the video will do little to ameliorate relations between both countries.

Owing to this backstory, several conclusions can be drawn from the supposed ‘thawing’ in relations being reported this week. Firstly, a genuine attempt at improving relations between the feuding countries is far from happening, especially if one of the parties engaged in such talks belongs to a faction of the Qatari royal family no longer in power. One would think that a peaceful resolution to the months-long crisis requires the participation of individuals who are active members of the decision-making apparatus in each of the countries—ie., high-level officials from the government such as the country’s foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani.

Secondly, the coercive nature of some of the demands issued against Qatar, coupled with the negative media coverage across both sides of the divide, does little to foster an environment conducive to the sort of diplomacy needed amid the palpable tension engulfing the region at the moment. On the contrary, it plays right into the hands of the Saudi’s supposed rival Iran, which it sees as having a pernicious effect on the region due to its cultivating of relationships and partnerships aimed at threatening or undermining Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical interests. Moreover, when two regional rivals—in more than just economic and military terms—find themselves jostling for the position of regional hegemon, any opportunity to undermine the other’s scope of influence is pounced on eagerly.

As it relates to Qatar and the economic and political isolation it has been faced with, Iran may use the current impasse as an opportunity to further cement a budding relationship with Qatar—which Saudi Arabia sees as an affront to both itself and the harmonized political cooperation it seeks to engender amongst its allies (which formerly included Qatar). Lest we forget, they (Qatar and Iran) share the world’s largest gas field, which accounts for nearly all of Qatar’s gas production and approximately 60 percent of its export revenue. It seems unlikely that Qatar would ever consider cutting off a relationship of such economic significance in order to appease its fellow Gulf neighbours. That fact alone should force the blockading countries to reconsider their approach as it relates to Qatar. Rather than demand a breaking off of ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia and the other blockading countries should, in my view, attempt to forge a new relationship with Qatar–one devoid of the ultimatums and coercive methods which have in large part hampered efforts to de-escalate the crisis. That, of course, is only possible if, for example, all sides avoid the politicization of any and all matters which affect the respective governments and citizens of these countries—in this instance, the Hajj pilgrimage.

Arthur Jamo
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