Climate change has become one of the most discussed topics by governments, policy-makers and scholars. The rising interest in researching climate change stems from the desire to understand its potential impact on humanity. As Idean Salehyan eloquently states in his article, climate change “… is likely to have profound effects on agriculture, settlement patterns, natural disasters, disease, and economic activity” (Salehyan 2008). One of the angles that many countries, especially those in Africa, are interested in further investigating whether climate change will contribute to conflict patterns.

What is climate change?

According to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC), a scientific and intergovernmental body part of the United Nations, climate change is “an alteration in the state of the climate… that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer” (Field, et al. 2012). An alternation in the state of climate includes “frequency, intensity spatial extent, or duration of weather and climate extremes, including climate and hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, heavy precipitation events, drought, and tropical cyclones” (Field, et al. 2012).  The report continues to state that climate change is a result of their natural or human-made processes through the emission of greenhouse gasses (Field, et al. 2012).

Climate change and conflict

As with most topics, there are differing opinions regarding the link between climate change and conflict.  The most common viewpoint is that climate change will affect conflict patterns globally. Some authors such as Buhaug, Salehyan and Burke et al. argue specifically that climate change will lead to violent conflict rather than small skirmishes (Buhaug 2010) (Salehyan 2008) (Burke, et al. 2009). The basis of this argument is that conflict might ensure as a result of the competition of scarcity of resources such as agricultural lands, fuel, and water due to climate change. Halvard Buhaug, Pius Yanda and Salome van Jaarsveld maintain that climate change in connection with other socio-economic and political factors will lead to conflict. The authors are skeptical that climate change by itself can cause conflict. Russell Bishop clarifies that the conflict that would ensue is due to power, territory, money, and revenge rather than climatic issues such as an increase or decrease of rain, temperature or sea levels (Bishop 2017).

Salehyan argues that the long-term (desertification, rising sea-levels and spread of disease vectors) and short-term (hurricanes and flooding) impact of climate change will lead to shortages of resources. As a result, economies will be disrupted, and people will migrate to areas with more resources which will lead to competition between the indigenous and the immigrants.  He believes that the potential of climate change-infused conflicts will be more devastating for developing countries who are heavily dependent on agriculture, making them susceptible to environmental stresses. The Salehyan suggests that the lack of resources will force developed countries to close their borders entirely to refugees and migrants as a means to protect their limited resources (Salehyan 2008).

Climate change, conflict and Africa

The correlation between climate change and conflict is of particular interests for African countries. As many studies have concluded, nations that are developing and dependent on agriculture will suffer the most. Since this is the reality of all African countries, it is vital that they come together, guided by scholarly research rather than political and economic greed, to tackle the issue before it is too late.

Burke et al.’s research illustrated that the uncertainty due to climate change-related disasters such as a decrease in agricultural yields and economic uncertainty would contribute to the likelihood of conflict in the African continent. This research team came to the same conclusion as Salehyan since many African countries depend heavily on agriculture. According to their statistical models, 1 percent increase in temperatures in Africa leads to a 4.5 percent in civil wars in the same year and 0.9 percent increase the following year (Burke, et al. 2009).

According to Bishop, approximately 2/3 of African countries (30 countries) are experiencing warmer temperatures. If the extreme temperature trend continues, his research concludes that yield and output losses for major crops could be 20 to 30 percent or higher by 2050. Additionally, more than 20 million people were affected by the recent drought in southern Africa (Bishop 2017). If the drought worsens, it is fathomable that the lack of resources and migration due to climate change can result in conflict in the region.

The two most cited case studies that interlink climate change with conflict is the First Congo War and the Darfur War. In case of the First Congo War, the migration of refugees and génocidaires due to the Rwandan genocide added a new dimension in the brewing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The competition for arable land, a limited resource, in DRC was made worse by the demand for land by the refugees (Reuveny 2007). Bin Ki-Moon argued that Darfur War is the first example of a climate change conflict. He explained that the scarcity of water due to prolonged drought, a consequence of climate change, was a significant factor in the conflict (ki-Moon 2007).

Where do we go from here?

Therefore, as Bishop’s article title “Confronting climate change: African leadership in a time of climate risk” suggests, there is a need for African leaders to combat the issue head-on. In a speech to the UN, the Nigerian President, Muhammad Buhari, stated that climate change has had a devastating impact on the country which “…is affecting food, security, livelihoods, and the very survival of our people” (Shepard and Ighobor 2015). Early this year, the President of Seychelles, Danny Faure, urged the international community to take stronger actions to combat the impacts of climate change since his small island nation will be devastated by rising sea levels and other climate change disasters (Climate change requires most urgent mitigation measures, African leaders tell UN Assembly 2017).

At this point, many African governments have stated the potential harmful risk that climate change possesses on their respective countries. At a national level, some African countries have put in place disaster risk management, invested in renewable energy (wind and solar farms) and infrastructure to deal with eco-system based approaches. Although these steps are in the right direction, the efforts are still in their infancy stages. At an international level, 47 out of 54 African countries are signatories to the biggest climate change agreement, the Paris Accords.

Regardless of the steps, these African countries have placed to attempt to minimize the impact of climate change, root causes of conflict (poverty, distribution of wealth, governance, grievances) must be addressed. As stated earlier, the full impact of climate change will go hand-in-hand with socio-economic and political issues. Although many African presidents will claim that their governments have taken necessary steps to address root causes, evidence of such actions is limited. At the end of the day, actions speak louder than words.