North Korean Congress May Signal Slowdown Of Its Militarization

 

The 7th Congress of the Workers Party of Korea concluded on May 10th. To no one’s surprise, the Congress officially anointed Kim Jong-Un as the definitive leader of North Korea by enthroning him as the Chairman of the Party. The Congress, however, also seems to signal a change in North Korea’s economic and foreign policies. After years of neglect in favour of military expenditure and nuclear testing, the economy returned to the spotlight as the North Korean leadership announced their economic plans for 2016 to 2020. In foreign policy, the North Korean leadership adopted a more conciliatory approach towards its neighbours. These changes may have important implications for East Asia, as the world’s greatest powers converge on the region and tensions are mounting between the regional powers.

In one of the first signs of change, Kim Jong-Un announced that the economy would become a priority for North Korea. According to the Chinese news agency, Xinhua, Kim Jong-Un announced that various economic departments are not up to standards. Therefore, in the new Five-Year Plan for 2016-2020, North Korea is aiming for self-sufficiency in electricity, energy, food, and technology.[1] This announcement means acknowledging shortfalls and includes plans to strengthen the economy. Turning to economic construction might mean fewer resources would be spent that would escalate tensions in the region.

The Congress also seemed to signal a change in North Korea’s foreign policy. Kim announced that North Korea would continue to strengthen its nuclear arsenal. However, Kim apparently also pledged to not to use nuclear weapons unless it is attacked.[2] Kim also expressed the desire to work more closely with South Korea and called for high-level dialogues.[3] South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported it is likely that North Korea would tone down its sabre-rattling and warm up towards South Korea. South Korean analysists believe there is a good chance that North Korea would use its nuclear arsenal as a bargaining chip to obtain a guarantee of its continued survival, such as a peace treaty, thereby ending the Korean War.

The signals sent by the North Korean Congress have a number of implications. First, this would be a turn away from the “Military First” policy that was implemented under Kim Jong-Il. According to BBC, the reshuffling of the North Korean politburo in the last congress signalled the declining importance of the military relative in comparison to other priorities. Non-military officials are placed before military generals in the Congress’ official lineup, which implies a declining influence of the military and reassertion of Party control.[4]

Secondly, North Korea’s new conciliatory attitude may signal a shifting of diplomacy in the region. North Korea’s apparent willingness to trade nuclear testing for a guarantee of its survival places pressure on South Korea and the U.S. to respond in kind with some type of peace gesture. Already China has reverted to its old stance of calling for negotiations to solve the North Korean issue, meaning weakening of sanctions.[5]

South Korea apparently believes that some reduction in tensions is possible. Washington has, so far, refused negotiations, arguing that North Korea has shown no willingness to denuclearize. Washington has also insisted denuclearization, not a peace treaty, remains its priority. However, with China and Russia reverting to calls for negotiations and South Korea tilting in that direction, Washington may find it increasingly difficult to maintain sanctions on North Korea. While tensions are unlikely to decrease significantly, a less nuclear sabre-rattling North Korea would mean a quieter northeast Asia.

 

Bibliography

 

Gale, Alastair. “In Rare Congress, North Korean Dictator Toes the Line.” The Wall Street Journal, 08.05.2016 2016.

———. “North Korea Hardens Nuclear Stance at Party Congress.” The Wall Street Journal, 10.05.2016 2016.

“N. Korea May Warm toward Dialogue Following High-Profile Congress: Experts.” Yonhap News Agency, 13.05.2016 2016.

“What the New Photos of North Korea’s Leaders Say.”  BBC News (2016). Published electronically 13.05.2016. //www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36283607.

“Xie Ju: Chao Xian Lao Dong Dang Qi Da Shi Fang Na Xie Xin Hao.” Xinhua News Agency, 12.05.2016 2016.

 

[1] “Xie Ju: Chao Xian Lao Dong Dang Qi Da Shi Fang Na Xie Xin Hao,” Xinhua News Agency, 12.05.2016 2016.

[2] Alastair Gale, “In Rare Congress, North Korean Dictator Toes the Line,” The Wall Street Journal, 08.05.2016 2016.

[3] “N. Korea May Warm toward Dialogue Following High-Profile Congress: Experts,” Yonhap News Agency, 13.05.2016 2016.

[4] “What the New Photos of North Korea’s Leaders Say,”   BBC News (2016), //www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36283607.

[5] “North Korea Hardens Nuclear Stance at Party Congress,” The Wall Street Journal, 10.05.2016 2016.

Hanyu Huang

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